中国户籍制度改革的动力与阻力研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 13:51

本文选题：户籍制度 + 动力　；参考：《浙江大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：中国的户籍制度改革在新世纪以前进展缓慢,在新世纪以后却有较为明显的实质性突破。但与此同时,仍有很多地方政府在具体实施户籍制度改革时表现出了迟疑甚至反对。鉴于这一现实背景,本文旨在回答如下两个问题：第一,新世纪以来什么样的因素的出现为地方政府改革户籍制度提供了新的动力从而带来了户籍制度改革的实质性突破?第二,地方政府在推行户籍制度改革时的迟疑或反对的根本原因是什么,又该如何破解这种阻力?本文的研究内容主要包括以下四个方面：第一,新世纪以来,中国的劳动力市场发生了两大深刻的变化：一是城镇的劳动力供给开始从无限供给转变为有限供给,二是有着更强的平等意识和维权意识的新生代农民工群体快速壮大。本文构建的包含了劳动力竞争的地方政府竞争模型发现,城镇劳动力供给从无限供给转变为有限供给之后,地方政府就会开始对劳动力进行竞争,地方政府向外来农民工提供公共服务的边际收益上升,由此促使了地方政府对户籍制度的改革。本文构建的包含了社会冲突的理论模型发现,新生代农民工的出现和壮大使得户籍歧视下的非生产性损耗大幅度攀升,即政府提供均等化的公共服务的边际收益上升,到某一个临界点之后,改革户籍制度、提供均等化的公共服务就会成为地方政府理性的、主动的选择。第二,在上述劳动力竞争理论模型分析的基础上,利用中国第五次人口普查和2005年1%人口抽样调查微观数据,并采用基于倾向性得分匹配的双重差分法控制选择偏差和不可观测因素可能造成的内生性问题,考察户籍制度改革对外来人口分布的影响后发现,新世纪以来部分地区进行的户籍制度改革的确起到了吸引外来劳动力的作用。接着,利用2001-2014年地级市层面的求人倍率等数据进行的进一步的研究发现,并没有足够的证据表明户籍制度改革会对城镇劳动力市场的供求状况产生显著的负面影响。第三,在上述社会冲突理论模型分析的基础上,借助1997-2013年中国30个省的面板数据和PMG模型考察户籍制度、外来人口比重与刑事犯罪率三者之间的关系后发现,放松户籍管制、提高外来人口获得当地户口的概率(入户概率),可以有效地降低刑事犯罪率。研究还发现,在过去的户籍制度下,外来人口比重的增加显著提高了刑事犯罪率,但这主要是由外来人口中的暂住人口的增加导致的,户籍迁入人口的增加没有对犯罪率产生显著影响；当入户概率提高到一定程度之后,外来人口的增加将不再对犯罪率产生显著的影响。第四,利用2005年全国1%人口抽样调查微观数据计算得到各个地区的市民化率(市民比重),并考察地区市民化率与个人劳动收入之间的因果关系,发现无论是用“常住非农业户口人口数占总常住人口数的比重”来衡量地区市民化率还是用“养老、失业、医疗保险三者的平均覆盖率”来衡量地区市民化率,结果都表明,改革户籍制度,推进市民化进程,给更多的非市民以市民身份和权利,不仅不会损害其他劳动者的收入,相反会产生正向的外部性使得他们从中获益。归纳起来,本文的研究结论有以下两个：第一,新世纪以来,中国劳动力市场出现的两大深刻变化,即劳动力数量结构的变化(城镇劳动力供给遭遇短缺)和劳动力人员结构的变化(新生代农民工群体的壮大),造成了原有制度框架下的非均衡状态,为地方政府改革户籍制度提供了潜在的获益机会,这是户籍制度改革在新世纪取得实质性突破的根本原因。实证研究表明,新世纪以来的户籍制度改革的确起到了预期的作用。第二,政府的有限理性使得它们无法对户籍制度改革产生或将产生的实际影响做出准确的判断是它们在改革户籍制度时迟疑甚至反对的根本原因。破解户籍制度改革的阻力的关键是对已有的改革的效应进行科学的评估和总结,弥补政府在这一方面的信息不足。实证研究表明：户籍制度改革可以在不恶化城镇劳动力市场供求状况的情况下吸引外来劳动力的流入；户籍制度改革后外来人口的增加并不会导致地区刑事犯罪率的上升；户籍制度改革后市民比重的提高不仅不会损害原有城镇居民的收入,相反还能产生正向的外部性。所以说,部分地方政府由于有限理性和信息的不足在以往的户籍制度改革决策上做出了错误的预期和选择,在未来政府应当更加坚决、大胆地推进户籍制度改革。
[Abstract]:The reform of the household registration system in China has progressed slowly before the new century, but there is a clear substantive breakthrough in the new century. But at the same time, there are still many local governments in the implementation of the reform of the household registration system. In view of this realistic background, this article aims to answer the following two questions: first, the new world The emergence of what kind of factors has provided a new impetus for the local government to reform the household registration system, which has brought about a substantial breakthrough in the reform of the household registration system. Second, what are the fundamental reasons for the hesitation or opposition of the local government in the reform of the household registration system and how to break this resistance? The main contents of this paper include the main contents of this paper. The following four aspects: first, since the new century, China's labor market has undergone two profound changes: first, the labor supply of cities and towns has begun to change from unlimited supply to limited supply, and the two is the rapid growth of the new generation of migrant workers, which have a stronger consciousness of equality and the awareness of rights. The competition model of the local government has found that the local government will begin to compete with the labor force after the supply of urban labor supply has changed from unlimited supply to the limited supply, and the marginal income of the local government to provide public service to the migrant workers is rising, which has prompted the local government to reform the household registration system. The theoretical model of the conflict has found that the emergence of the new generation of migrant workers and the non productive loss of the permanent residence registration of the Zhuang ambassadors greatly increase, that is, the marginal revenue of the government provides equal public services, and after a certain critical point, the reform of the household registration system and the provision of equal public service will become the rational of the local government. Second, on the basis of the analysis of the theoretical model of the labor force competition, using the fifth census of China and the microscopic data of the sampling survey of 1% population in 2005, and using the dual difference method based on the tendency score matching to control the endogenous problems caused by the selection deviation and the unobservable factors, the household registration system is investigated. After the influence of the leathers on the distribution of the foreign population, it is found that the reform of the household registration system in some areas since the new century has indeed played a role in attracting foreign labor. The supply and demand of the town labor market has a significant negative impact. Third, on the basis of the analysis of the theoretical model of social conflict, with the help of the panel data and PMG model of the 30 provinces in China for 1997-2013 years, the household registration system is examined, the proportion of the foreign population and the criminal crime rate between the three are found to relax the domicile control and improve the outsiders. It is also found that the increase in the proportion of foreign population has significantly increased the rate of criminal crime in the past household registration system, but it is mainly caused by the increase in the temporary population of the foreign population, and the increase in the population of the household registration is not produced by the crime rate. There is a significant impact. When the probability of entering the household is raised to a certain degree, the increase of the foreign population will no longer have a significant impact on the crime rate. Fourth, using the micro data of the national 1% population sampling survey in 2005 to calculate the citizenization rate (the proportion of the citizens) in each region, and to examine the cause of the local citizenization rate and the individual labor income. It is found that the rate of local citizenization is measured by "the proportion of permanent resident population of permanent resident population and the proportion of the total number of permanent residents" to measure the local citizenization rate or the average coverage rate of "the three persons of pension, unemployment and medical insurance". The result shows that the reform of the household registration system, the advancement of the citizenization process, and the more non townspeople to the city. The status and rights of the people will not only do not harm the income of other workers, but on the contrary will produce positive externalities to benefit them. In conclusion, there are two conclusions in this paper: first, since the new century, the two profound changes in the labor market in China, namely, the change of the labor force quantity structure (the supply of urban labor force) The shortage) and the changes in the structure of the labor force (the growth of the new generation of migrant workers) have caused the unbalanced state under the original system framework and provided the potential benefit opportunities for the local government to reform the household registration system. This is the fundamental reason for the substantial breakthrough in the reform of the household registration system in the new century. The reform of the household registration system has indeed played an expected role. Second, the government's limited rationality makes it impossible for them to make an accurate judgment of the reform of the household registration system or the actual impact that they will produce. The key to the resistance to the reform of the household registration system is the key to the reform of the household registration system. The effect of the reform is evaluated and summarized scientifically to make up for the lack of government information in this area. The empirical study shows that the reform of the household registration system can attract the influx of foreign labor without worsening the supply and demand of the urban labor market; the increase of the population after the reform of the household registration system will not lead to the criminal offenders in the region. The increase of the crime rate; the increase of the proportion of the citizens after the reform of the household registration system will not only do not harm the income of the original urban residents, but also produce positive externalities. Therefore, some local governments have made incorrect expectations and choices in the past household registration system reform decisions because of the limited rationality and the lack of information, and the government should be in the future. When more resolute, the reform of the household registration system was boldly pushed forward.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D631.42

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