区间多阶段风险规避方法应用于灌区水资源管理

发布时间：2018-04-27 04:39

本文选题：农业灌溉 + 水资源配置　；参考：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会经济的快速发展,现今的整个社会都面临着严重的水资源短缺问题,其中依赖于水资源生存的灌区农业系统尤为严重。本文针对灌区农业灌溉管理系统中的不确定性问题,开发了基于区间多阶段的风险规避模型(RAMS)。该方法分析了农业水资源规划系统的不确定性的问题,将静态分析方法转换为基于交互式算法和顶点分析方法的动态分析方法,并将其推广到灌区农业灌溉系统管理中,制定出规划方案用以解决灌溉中面临的实际问题。当随机事件发生时,该方法可以通过设定目标来保证规划的正常进行。正确地设定目标之后,再根据在该情景下的目标的条件风险值作出修改后的决定,以减少经济处罚。该规划方法应用到漳卫南灌区将有利于该地区农作物的灌溉与节水。我国农业系统正面临严重干旱缺水问题,可用灌溉水量的缺乏是长期困扰农业地区发展的主要因素之一。尤其是近几年,由于盲目地开发利用地下水,致使地下水位严重下降,近年来农业用水需求总量也在增加,同时,地下水位的下降致使农业需要更加多的灌溉用水,这形成了一个恶性循环。作为用水大户的农业灌溉,对农业用水的规划可以从一定程度上缓解目前水资源短缺困境。从全局的角度上对农业灌溉用水做出合理的配置,提高灌溉用水的效率,如水的输送效率、灌溉效率和作物用水效率等。随着国民经济的进一步发展,单纯的行政配置或是简单的水资源配置已经难以满足作物灌溉用水需求的复杂性和多变性。在本研究中,通过耦合区间规划、多阶段方法和条件风险价值(CVaR)模型构建出区间多阶段条件风险规避模型,实现系统中不确定性风险的定量化。本研究采用Penman公式表达出作物需水量。结果不仅为当地的作物种植、灌溉提供决策依据和技术支持,还实现了区域农业灌溉水管理的收益和风险之间的权衡。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy, the whole society is facing a serious shortage of water resources, especially the agricultural system of irrigation district, which depends on water resources to survive. Aiming at the uncertainty of agricultural irrigation management system in irrigation area, a risk aversion model based on interval multi-stage is developed in this paper. In this paper, the uncertainty of agricultural water resources planning system is analyzed, and the static analysis method is transformed into a dynamic analysis method based on interactive algorithm and vertex analysis method, and it is extended to the management of agricultural irrigation system in irrigation area. Make a plan to solve the practical problems in irrigation. When random events occur, the method can set targets to ensure the normal planning. After setting the target correctly, make a modified decision based on the conditional risk value of the target in the scenario to reduce the financial penalty. The application of this planning method in Zhangweinan Irrigation District will benefit the irrigation and water saving of crops in this area. China's agricultural system is facing serious drought and water shortage, and the lack of available irrigation water is one of the main factors that haunt the development of agricultural areas for a long time. Especially in recent years, due to the blind exploitation and utilization of groundwater, the groundwater level has dropped seriously, and the total demand for agricultural water has been increasing in recent years. At the same time, the decline of groundwater level has led to more irrigation water for agriculture. This creates a vicious circle. Agricultural irrigation, as a large water user, can alleviate the shortage of water resources to a certain extent. In order to improve the efficiency of irrigation water, such as water transport efficiency, irrigation efficiency and crop water efficiency, the rational allocation of agricultural irrigation water is made from the overall perspective. With the further development of national economy, it is difficult to meet the complexity and variability of crop irrigation water demand with simple administrative allocation or simple water resources allocation. In this study, an interval multi-stage conditional risk aversion model is constructed by coupling interval programming, multi-stage method and conditional risk value (RV) model to quantify the uncertain risk in the system. In this study, the Penman formula was used to express the crop water demand. The results not only provide the decision basis and technical support for local crop planting and irrigation, but also realize the trade-off between the benefits and risks of regional agricultural irrigation water management.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：S274

【参考文献】