草原碳汇补偿机制设计及仿真研究

发布时间：2018-07-09 17:54

本文选题：生态环境 + 草原碳汇　；参考：《内蒙古工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着世界范围内经济的快速发展,各国对于温室气体的过度排放,全球气候变暖问题成为了各国共同面对的挑战。政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,简称IPCC)提出地球系统受到碳循环系统的直接影响。碳排放强度较大会导致全球温度升高。为了能够尽快的控制气候变化的形势,世界范围内的影响较大的国家间达成了一系列的国际公约。其中包括初始阶段的《联合国气候变化框架公约》及之后随着全球经济变化达成的《京都议定书》和后来的《巴黎气候协定》,其中碳汇经济成为了这些公约的重要组成部分,然而现阶段在我国碳汇经济的发展还主要集中在森林碳汇的发展研究方面,在草原碳汇的研究方面还较为初级,即便如此,草原碳汇补偿机制对整个草原碳汇发展的激励确不可忽视。良好的草原碳汇补偿机制表现为内在的各个因素之间的和谐发展,文章以此为出发点,对我国草原碳汇补偿机制进行了分析、构建与模拟。论文的第一部分,主要介绍了草原碳汇补偿机制研究的背景、建立草原碳汇补偿机制的意义和现阶段在草原碳汇方面的国内外研究现状,以及文章所用的研究方法、本文的研究思路及所要研究的主要内容。论文第二章主要在查阅大量文献的基础上对草原碳汇和草原碳汇补偿相关概念进行细分与界定,并且在此基础上对本文中所用到的方法系统动力学进行介绍,为文章后续研究奠定了理论基础。第三章从国际框架的角度出发,客观描述了《京都议定书》、《巴黎气候协定》等国际公约下对我国草原碳汇补偿的影响,通过对现状的研究探讨,从政府和市场的角度分析了我国草原碳汇补偿机制现在的发展存在的问题。第四章运用系统动力学的方法,对我国草原碳汇补偿机制中所涉及的相互关系,量化了因果关系图,并且对反馈关系进行了分析。第五章采用了系统动力学仿真模拟的方法,对我国草原碳汇补偿机制进行了定量分析,对草原碳汇补偿的运行机制做了明确的说明,进一步分析了其中所涉及到的子系统。并且根据系统动力学(System Dynamics,简称SD)图中所涉及的变量的分析,收集了大量相关数据,运用Vensim DSS软件对模型进行了仿真模拟,对所得出的仿真结果进行了进一步分析。最后,根据所做系统动力学分析,对我国草原碳汇补偿机制的设计和完善提出了具体的政策建议。本文通过对我国草原碳汇补偿机制发展的现状的分析和对我国草原碳汇补偿机制的设计及模拟得出了政府、市场和个人相互作用的补偿机制。因此,建立并发展我国草原碳汇补偿机制要从政府、市场和个人三方面入手,并且结合法律、宣传等要素,建立并发展我国草原碳汇补偿机制。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the world economy and the excessive emission of greenhouse gases, global warming has become a common challenge. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) argues that the Earth system is directly affected by the carbon cycle. Higher carbon emissions can lead to higher global temperatures. In order to control the situation of climate change as soon as possible, a series of international conventions have been reached among the most influential countries around the world. These include the initial United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change and the subsequent Kyoto Protocol, as the global economy changed, and the subsequent Paris Climate Agreement, of which the economy of carbon sinks became an important component of those conventions, However, at the present stage, the development of carbon sink economy in China is mainly focused on the development and research of forest carbon sinks, and the research on grassland carbon sinks is still at the primary level, even so. The compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sink can not be ignored to encourage the development of the whole grassland carbon sink. The good compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sequestration is the harmonious development among various factors. This paper analyzes, constructs and simulates the compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sink in China. The first part of the paper mainly introduces the background of the research on the compensation mechanism of the grassland carbon sink, the significance of establishing the compensation mechanism of the grassland carbon sink, the current research situation at home and abroad on the grassland carbon sink at present, and the research methods used in the article. The research ideas and main contents of this paper. In the second chapter, the related concepts of grassland carbon sink and grassland carbon sink compensation are subdivided and defined on the basis of consulting a large number of literatures, and then the systematic dynamics of the methods used in this paper are introduced. It lays a theoretical foundation for further research. The third chapter, from the perspective of international framework, objectively describes the impact of international conventions, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Climate Agreement, on the compensation of grassland carbon sinks in China. The problems existing in the development of grassland carbon sequestration compensation mechanism in China are analyzed from the point of view of government and market. In chapter 4, we use the method of system dynamics to quantify the causality diagram of the compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sink in China, and analyze the feedback relation. In the fifth chapter, the simulation method of system dynamics is used to quantitatively analyze the compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sink in China. The operating mechanism of compensation for grassland carbon sink is explained clearly, and the subsystem involved is analyzed. According to the analysis of the variables involved in the system Dynamics (SD) diagram, a large number of relevant data are collected, and the model is simulated with Vensim DSS software, and the simulation results are further analyzed. Finally, according to the system dynamics analysis, the paper puts forward some specific policy suggestions on the design and improvement of the compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sinks in China. Based on the analysis of the present situation of the development of the compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sinks in China and the design and simulation of the compensation mechanism of the grassland carbon sinks in China, the compensation mechanism of the interaction among the government, the market and the individual is obtained in this paper. Therefore, it is necessary to establish and develop the compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sink in our country from three aspects of government, market and individual, and combine the elements of law, propaganda and so on, to establish and develop the compensation mechanism of grassland carbon sink in our country.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：S812;F323.212

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