河北省冬小麦生产区域分布及其影响因素分析
发布时间：2018-10-12 07:45
【摘要】：河北省是我国重要的农业大省,小麦与玉米是其中重要的两大粮食作物,其中小麦的健康稳定生产对本省农业系统和全国粮食生产都有重要意义。该省大陆性季风气候明显,自然降水量远不能满足小麦生产需要,必须依赖于灌溉用水,由于长期抽取地下水进行灌溉,华北地区出现了全国最大的地下漏斗。在气候变化与水资源短缺的今天,明确冬小麦生产的区域分布及其影响因素,可为本省小麦合理布局及科学生产规划提供依据,促使全省粮食的安全生产和资源的可持续利用。本文基于冬小麦产量、播种面积以及灌溉面积、化肥使用量、农药使用量、农业机械总动力等要素的数据,以县市平均冬小麦播种面积大于总播种面积的20%为标准选取冬小麦主产县(101个县市),以主产县市为基本研究单元,运用系统聚类分析、因子分析、逐步回归分析、单因素方差分析等方法,并结合综合比较优势模型,分析了河北省冬小麦生产的时空分布及影响因素。得到如下主要结论:(1)利用1980-2014年资料分析表明,河北省冬小麦时间变化特征为:播种面积没有随时间显著变化,但是近两年来减少明显;单产与总产量变化趋势基本一致,随时间显著提高。(2)河北省冬小麦既具有综合比较优势,又具有规模比较优势、单产比较优势与效益比较优势,与玉米、大豆、稻谷等粮食作物比较,冬小麦是全省最具生产优势的粮食作物。(3)基于1998-2014年冬小麦生产资料,通过聚类分析方法将全省冬小麦主产区分为四个(Ⅰ~Ⅳ),从Ⅰ区向Ⅳ区产量依次递减,产量变异依次增大,并且各区间差异显著(P0.05)。说明越是低产区产量越不稳定。因子分析结果显示,农业机械总动力因子(F1)、化肥使用量因子(F2)、灌溉面积因子(F3)、农药使用量因子(F4)、年降水量因子(F5)、年降水量极小值因子(F6)等6个主成分因子被提取。其中F1、F2、F3、F4、F6与冬小麦产量均值(Y)有显著的线性回归关系(R2=0.569,P0.05),化肥使用量因子(F2)、灌溉面积因子(F3)分别解释了产量均值(Y)的23.6%、14.2%,农药使用量因子(F4)、农业机械总动力因子(F1)与年降水量极小值因子(F6)分别解释了10.1%、4.7%、4.2%。说明化肥使用量是影响河北省冬小麦生产区域分布的首要因素,其次是灌溉面积,而农药使用量、农业机械总动力以及年降水量极小值对冬小麦生产区域分布影响微弱。年降水量(F5)影响效应不显著,说明各区间年降水量较均匀,对冬小麦生产的区域分布影响不显著。另外,全省冬小麦播种面积与产量水平的区域吻合度较好(R2=0.051,P0.05),基本上播种面积比重大的地区其产量水平高,说明现有的冬小麦生产区域布局基本合理。但也存在不合理的现象,如邢台县及分布在渤海西岸的Ⅳ区的个别县市产量低,播种面积比重大,认为该县市所在区域冬小麦种植与收成有所失调,需要慎重审视。
[Abstract]:Hebei Province is an important agricultural province in China, among which wheat and corn are two important food crops. The healthy and stable production of wheat plays an important role in the agricultural system of Hebei Province and the national grain production. The continental monsoon climate of the province is obvious, and the natural precipitation is far from meeting the needs of wheat production. It must rely on irrigation water. Because of the long-term groundwater extraction for irrigation, the largest underground funnel has appeared in North China. In today's climate change and water shortage, the regional distribution of winter wheat production and its influencing factors can provide the basis for the rational distribution and scientific production planning of wheat in this province, and promote the safe production of grain and the sustainable utilization of resources in the whole province. Based on the data of winter wheat yield, sowing area and irrigation area, fertilizer usage, pesticide use, total power of agricultural machinery, etc. The average sowing area of winter wheat in county and city is more than 20% of the total sowing area. The main winter wheat producing county (101 counties and cities) is selected as the standard, and the main producing county is taken as the basic research unit. The system cluster analysis, factor analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used. The spatial and temporal distribution and influencing factors of winter wheat production in Hebei Province were analyzed by means of single factor variance analysis and combined with comprehensive comparative advantage model. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) based on the analysis of the data from 1980 to 2014, the characteristics of winter wheat time variation in Hebei Province are as follows: the sowing area does not change significantly with time, but it decreases obviously in the last two years, and the variation trend of yield per unit yield is basically consistent with that of total yield. (2) Winter wheat in Hebei Province has both comprehensive comparative advantage and comparative advantage in scale, comparative advantage in yield per unit yield and comparative advantage in benefit, compared with corn, soybean, rice and other grain crops. Winter wheat is the most advantageous food crop in the province. (3) based on the data of winter wheat production from 1998 to 2014, the main winter wheat production areas in the province are divided into four areas (鈪，
本文编号：2265338
[Abstract]:Hebei Province is an important agricultural province in China, among which wheat and corn are two important food crops. The healthy and stable production of wheat plays an important role in the agricultural system of Hebei Province and the national grain production. The continental monsoon climate of the province is obvious, and the natural precipitation is far from meeting the needs of wheat production. It must rely on irrigation water. Because of the long-term groundwater extraction for irrigation, the largest underground funnel has appeared in North China. In today's climate change and water shortage, the regional distribution of winter wheat production and its influencing factors can provide the basis for the rational distribution and scientific production planning of wheat in this province, and promote the safe production of grain and the sustainable utilization of resources in the whole province. Based on the data of winter wheat yield, sowing area and irrigation area, fertilizer usage, pesticide use, total power of agricultural machinery, etc. The average sowing area of winter wheat in county and city is more than 20% of the total sowing area. The main winter wheat producing county (101 counties and cities) is selected as the standard, and the main producing county is taken as the basic research unit. The system cluster analysis, factor analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used. The spatial and temporal distribution and influencing factors of winter wheat production in Hebei Province were analyzed by means of single factor variance analysis and combined with comprehensive comparative advantage model. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) based on the analysis of the data from 1980 to 2014, the characteristics of winter wheat time variation in Hebei Province are as follows: the sowing area does not change significantly with time, but it decreases obviously in the last two years, and the variation trend of yield per unit yield is basically consistent with that of total yield. (2) Winter wheat in Hebei Province has both comprehensive comparative advantage and comparative advantage in scale, comparative advantage in yield per unit yield and comparative advantage in benefit, compared with corn, soybean, rice and other grain crops. Winter wheat is the most advantageous food crop in the province. (3) based on the data of winter wheat production from 1998 to 2014, the main winter wheat production areas in the province are divided into four areas (鈪，
本文编号：2265338
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