四川省2001年-2011年农业水足迹特征与动态变化研究

发布时间：2018-12-25 16:51

【摘要】：四川省水资源具有时空分布不均衡的特点,水旱灾害频现,水资源成为制约四川省农业可持续发展的瓶颈。本文以水足迹理论为基础,将实体水与虚拟水、本地水资源与外地水资源有效联系,系统的分析四川省农业水资源的分布状况和利用现状,为实现四川省农业水资源的可持续高效利用提供理论依据。本文利用文献查阅-实地调研、图像分析法、指标评价法、灰色关联度分析法等研究方法,确定了四川省2001年-2011年农产品单位虚拟水量,在此基础上,通过农业生产虚拟水量、农业虚拟水消费量、农业虚拟水贸易量的测算与动态变化分析,测算了2001年-2011年四川省各市(州)的农业水足迹,分析了四川省各市(州)近11年的农业水足迹动态变化；并从水足迹结构、效益、生态安全和可持续性能四个方面构建了农业水足迹可持续利用评价指标体系,定量评价了四川省21个市(州)2001年-2011年的农业水足迹,同时探究了四川省农业水足迹的驱动因素,主要研究结果如下：(1)四川省各市(州)近11年农业水足迹量特征与动态变化分析。①农业水足迹量特征。以农业生产虚拟水量、农业虚拟水消费量、农业虚拟水贸易量和农业水足迹量测算为基础,分析农业水足迹量特征,分析结果表明：四川省2001-2011年农业水足迹整体呈增加趋势。农业水足迹量在2011年达到最大值,为557.75×108m3,最小值出现在2001年,为452.13×108m3。人均农业水足迹整体呈增加趋势,11年间人均农业水足迹保持在535.92 m3-620.64 m3之间。其中农业水足迹量最大的是成都市,其次是南充市和达州市。农业水足迹量较大的是绵阳市、资阳市、宜宾市和泸州市。农业水足迹量较小的市(州)分别是：阿坝藏族羌族自治州(以下简称阿坝州)、甘孜藏族自治州(以下简称甘孜州)、攀枝花市和雅安市,2011年这四个市(州)的农业水足迹量均小于10×108m3。②农业水足动态变化特征。以农业水足迹测算数据为基础,采用图像分析法探究农业水足迹动态变化特征,研究结果表明：11年间四川省农业水足迹随着年份推移呈缓慢增加趋势,成都市增幅最明显,特别是2008年以后增幅提高,其余市(州)增幅较小；人均农业水足迹变化趋势与农业水足迹的变化趋势呈现一致性,人均农业水足迹量是呈增大的趋势变化。2001年和2005年四川省各市(州)之间人均农业水足迹各市(州)差距不明显,但2008年和2011年人均农业水资源的差距变大。(2)四川省各市(州)近11年农业水足迹可持续利用评价与分析。根据农业水足迹的理论依据,以水资源利用评价指标为参照,结合实际情况对现有指标进行改进,拟定由水足迹结构、效益、生态安全和可持续性能四类指标组成的四川省农业水足迹利用效益评价指标体系,对四川省农业水足迹可持续利用进行评价与分析,结果表明：①农业水足迹结构可持续特征：11年间农业水资源进口依赖度在0.06%-1.28%之间,自给率高达98%以上,四川省农业水资源对外依赖度非常小,完全能够自给自足,表现出较强的可持续性特征。②农业水足迹效益可持续性特征：2001年-2011年,四川省各市(州)的万吨农业水足迹人口密度呈明显递减趋势变化,农业水足迹土地密度呈缓慢增加的趋势变化,对外贸易虚拟水量整体增加,表现出可持续性逐渐降低的特征。③农业水足迹生态安全性：2006年、2009年、2010年和2011年农业水资源匮乏度较高,表明安全性在逐渐降低。其中匮乏度超过100%的地区有成都市、自贡市、德阳市、遂宁市、内江市、南充市、眉山市、宜宾市、广安市和资阳市,其中成都市的农业水资源匮乏度最严重,2005年-2010年均在200%以上。④农业水足迹可持续性能：农业水足迹可持续利用较好的年份是2004年、2007年和2008年。农业水足迹可持续利用状态最好的是广安市,除了2006年和2009年没有呈现可持续利用的变化趋势之外,其余年份均呈可持续利用。农业水足迹可持续利用最差的是攀枝花市,只有2005年呈现可持续利用的变化趋势。(3)四川省农业水足迹变化驱动力及水资源可持续利用战略分析。①农业水足迹变化驱动力分析。采用DPS数据处理平台对可能影响农业水足迹变化的四大类因子,共9项指标进行灰色关联度分析,结果表明：对四川省农业水足迹变化影响最大的两个因子分别是关联度为0.6433的耕地复种指数和关联度为0.6325的人口总数量,其次是水田比重和水库蓄水总量及流动人口对四川省农业水足迹有较大影响。②水资源可持续利用战略分析。以四川省农业水足迹研究结果为理论依据,为实现四川省农业水资源的可持续高效利用,分别从四个方面提出四川省农业水资源可持续利用战略。第一,改变水资源战略,适度控制虚拟水输出；第二,优化农业产业结构,控制高耗水产业规模；第三,发展节水农业,加强水资源优化配置；第四,提高公众保护水资源与节约水资源意识。
[Abstract]:The water resources in Sichuan Province have the characteristics of uneven distribution of time and space, and the water and drought disasters are now, and the water resources become the bottleneck of the sustainable development of the agriculture in Sichuan. Based on the theory of water footprint, this paper makes an effective connection between the physical water and the virtual water, the local water resources and the foreign water resources, and analyzes the distribution and utilization of the agricultural water resources in Sichuan Province, and provides the theoretical basis for realizing the sustainable and efficient utilization of the agricultural water resources in Sichuan. In this paper, the virtual water volume of agricultural products in Sichuan Province from 2001 to 2011 was determined by the methods of reference-field investigation, image analysis, index evaluation and grey relational analysis. On the basis of this, the virtual water volume and the consumption of the agricultural virtual water were obtained through the agricultural production. The agricultural water footprint of every city (state) in Sichuan Province from 2001 to 2011 was calculated and the dynamic changes of the agricultural water footprint in the city (state) of Sichuan Province in 2001-2011 were calculated and the dynamic changes of the agricultural virtual water trade volume were measured, and the water footprint structure and benefit were analyzed. The agricultural water footprint sustainable utilization evaluation index system is constructed in four aspects of ecological security and sustainability, and the agricultural water footprint of 21 cities (state) in Sichuan Province from 2001 to 2011 is quantitatively evaluated, and the driving factors of the agricultural water footprint in Sichuan Province are also explored. The main results are as follows: (1) The characteristics and dynamic changes of agricultural water footprint in every city (state) in Sichuan Province in the last 11 years. The characteristics of agricultural water footprint. Based on the agricultural production virtual water volume, the agricultural virtual water consumption, the agricultural virtual water trade volume and the agricultural water footprint, the characteristics of the agricultural water footprint are analyzed, and the results show that the overall agricultural water footprint in Sichuan Province in 2001-2011 has a tendency to increase. The agricultural water footprint reached its maximum in 2011, with a minimum value of 557,75-108m3, with a minimum of 452. 13-108m3. The overall agricultural water footprint per capita is increasing, and the per capita agricultural water footprint in the 11-year period is between 535. 92 m3 and 620. 64m3. The largest amount of agricultural water footprint is Chengdu, followed by Nanchong and Dazhou. The agricultural water footprint is large, which is Mianyang, Ziyang, Yibin and Luzhou. The cities (state) with small agricultural water footprint are: Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture (hereinafter referred to as Aba State), Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture (hereinafter referred to as Ganzi Prefecture), Panzhihua City and Ya 'an City, and the agricultural water footprint in the four cities (states) in 2011 is less than 10-108m3. Study on the dynamic characteristics of the water-foot of the agricultural water in china. Based on the data of the agricultural water footprint, the dynamic characteristics of the agricultural water footprint are explored by the image analysis method. The results show that the agricultural water footprint in Sichuan province has been increasing slowly over the years, and the growth rate of Chengdu is the most obvious, especially after 2008. The increase of agricultural water footprint per capita is consistent with the trend of agricultural water footprint, and the per capita agricultural water footprint is increasing. The difference between the agricultural water footprint per capita between 2001 and 2005 (state) is not obvious. However, the gap between the per capita agricultural water resources in 2008 and 2011 has changed. (2) The evaluation and analysis of the sustainable utilization of the agricultural water footprint in the city (state) of Sichuan Province in the last 11 years. according to the theoretical basis of the agricultural water footprint, the water resource utilization evaluation index is taken as a reference, the existing indexes are improved according to the actual situation, the water footprint structure and the benefit are prepared, The evaluation index system of the agricultural water footprint of Sichuan province, which is composed of four indexes of ecological security and sustainability, can be used for the evaluation and analysis of the sustainable utilization of the agricultural water footprint in Sichuan Province. The results show that: The water-footprint structure of agricultural water in Sichuan province is characterized by the following: the dependence of agricultural water resource in the period of 11 years is between 0. 06% and 1. 28%, with a high rate of over 98%. The dependence of agricultural water resources in Sichuan Province is very small, fully self-sufficient and shows a strong sustainability characteristic. Agricultural water footprint benefit sustainability characteristics: in 2001-2011, the population density of the ten thousand tons of agricultural water in various cities (state) of Sichuan province showed a marked decline trend, the land density of the agricultural water footprint changed slowly, the total volume of the foreign trade virtual water was increased, showing the characteristics of a gradual decline in sustainability. The ecological security of agricultural water footprint in China: in 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2011, the degree of water scarcity in agriculture was high, indicating that the safety was gradually decreasing. In the area of more than 100%, there are Chengdu, Zigong, Deyang, Suining, Neijiang, Nanchong, Meishan, Yibin, Guang' an and Ziyang, among which the water scarcity of agriculture in Chengdu is the most serious, and the average annual average of 2005-2010 is over 200%. The sustainability of agricultural water footprint: the sustainable use of the agricultural water footprint is 2004, 2007 and 2008. The sustainable utilization of the agricultural water footprint is the best in Guang 'an City. In addition to the trend of sustainable utilization in 2006 and 2009, the rest of the year is sustainable. The sustainable utilization of the agricultural water footprint is the Panzhihua City, and only the trend of sustainable utilization is presented in 2005. (3) The driving force of agricultural water footprint change and the sustainable utilization strategy of water resources in Sichuan Province. Analysis of the driving force of agricultural water footprint change. By using DPS data processing platform, four kinds of factors that may affect the change of agricultural water footprint are analyzed, and the results show that: The two factors that affect the change of the agricultural water footprint in Sichuan Province are the total population of the cultivated land with the degree of correlation of 0.6433 and the total population of 0.6325. The second is the specific gravity of the paddy field and the total water storage of the reservoir and the large influence of the floating population on the agricultural water footprint in Sichuan Province. Strategic analysis of the sustainable utilization of water resources in china. In order to achieve the sustainable and efficient utilization of agricultural water resources in Sichuan Province, the sustainable utilization strategy of agricultural water resources in Sichuan Province is put forward in order to realize the sustainable and efficient utilization of agricultural water resources in Sichuan Province. First, change the water resource strategy and control the output of the virtual water moderately; secondly, optimize the agricultural industrial structure and control the scale of the high-consumption water industry; thirdly, develop the water-saving agriculture and strengthen the water resource optimization configuration; and fourthly, improve the public protection water resources and save the water resources consciousness.
【学位授予单位】：四川农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：S27

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