消费者视角的创新产品扩散研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 00:19

本文选题：创新产品扩散 + 消费者　；参考：《山东大学》2011年博士论文

【摘要】：创新产品是改变人类命运的最重要因素之一,更是现代企业在激烈市场竞争中赖以生存的核心要素,对于企业具有至关重要的价值。任何一种产品在其刚出现时都可以被视为是创新产品,但与普通产品不同,创新产品通常具有鲜明的创新性能和特点,以苹果公司为例,其电子数码产品iPod、iPhone凭借卓越的创新性,取得了巨大的市场成功,并在一定程度上改变了人类的生活方式。当前全球化、市场化、知识化、,网络化的时代背景下,企业在激烈残酷的市场竞争中,益发需要通过创新来获取竞争优势,因此,洞察创新产品扩散规律、分析创新扩散关键影响因素、预测创新产品扩散趋势,便具有重要的理论意义和实际价值,这也是创新扩散研究几十年来兴盛不衰、始终占据市场研究重要地位的原因。创新产品扩散是一个非常复杂的市场过程,通常要经历产品进入市场、扩散起飞、扩散持续、直到扩散完成等多个阶段,在各个阶段都会有不同的因素影响创新产品扩散的进行,而创新产品能否顺利扩散最终还是取决于消费者是否接受和购买该产品。因此,从消费者的视角来研究创新产品扩散,对于探究扩散发生的本质、扩散的规律和形态等问题意义重大,而从这一角度来开展的创新扩散研究尚处于起步阶段,国内外所取得的研究成果还比较有限,本论文期望从消费者视角出发对创新产品扩散问题进行探索和考察,取得有价值的研究成果。自Bass在1969年首次提出扩散模型以来,学者们开展了长期系统而深入的研究,创新产品扩散领域中涌现出众多成果。随着研究的不断发展,许多不同学科的思想和理论越来越多的融入到该领域研究当中,尤其是模拟仿真等技术手段的发展和成熟,为创新产品扩散研究开辟了一条新的路径,使得该领域中的很多具体问题可以得到更为深入细致的考察。创新产品扩散是一个宏大的研究主题,所包含的具体研究问题数量众多,并具有较高的理论探索和实际应用价值,本论文综合使用模拟仿真的技术手段,在单一创新产品扩散和两种竞争性创新产品扩散情景下展开研究,对创新产品扩散中一系列未被研究过的具体问题进行考察和分析,并对某些已经研究过的重要问题从不同的角度和层面进一步深入探索。论文考虑了现实中消费者的异质性,不同消费者具有不同的需求、不同的目标结构、不同的决策方式,也造成了对创新产品的不同采纳结果。同时,消费者身处社会系统之中,消费者所作的决策,不仅与个体本身有关,还受到社会影响的作用。随着通讯技术的进步和互联网在日常生活中的渗透,消费者之间的交流更加便捷和频繁,消费者决策时受到的社会影响作用也日益增强,因此,研究消费者所处的网络结构对于创新扩散的影响同样具有重要意义。论文采用自底向上的思路对创新产品扩散问题进行研究,从微观消费者个体出发,分析消费者的异质性及决策差异,通过对消费者基本状态的考察,探究消费者对于创新产品的认知和决策规则,使用多主体建模原理和技术进行建模,进而对有关问题展开模拟仿真,籍此对单一创新产品扩散规律及特点进行考察。另外,论文还应用复杂网络理论和方法,将消费者置身于网络中进行研究,以此来考察网络拓扑结构等对创新产品扩散带来的影响。在单一创新产品扩散模拟分析部分,使用多主体建模原理和技术,在Repast Simphony平台上进行模拟研究,既对微观消费者主体进行描述和刻画,又从宏观层面系统展现了创新产品扩散过程和扩散结果,从而对所关注的具体问题进行详细考察。同时,论文运用复杂网络理论和方法,将消费者置身于网络中进行研究,籍此考察WS小世界网络和BA无标度网络两种网络拓扑结构和局部世界大小等对消费者决策及创新产品扩散的影响作用。在对模拟结果进行分析的过程中,论文还使用SPSS 16.0进行了一系列统计分析和检验。通过模拟和分析,在创新产品质量、广告强度和投放时间、广告投放方式、网络拓扑结构、消费者局部世界大小及其交互对单一创新产品扩散结果的影响作用等具体问题上取得了一系列研究成果,具体包括以下方面： (1)在考察创新产品本身质量的好坏对于产品扩散的影响作用问题时,模拟结果显示,创新产品本身的质量对于产品扩散具有至关重要的影响作用,产品质量越好,扩散的结果也越好,体现在累积采纳者数量和扩散速度两个方面。 (2)在考察创新产品质量与广告之间交互作用对于扩散结果的影响作用问题时,在本研究的模拟情景下,即使产品质量较差,也能在高强度广告的刺激作用下,最终达到完全扩散的市场结果。但同时也可以发现,采用者中对该产品进行了负面评价的人占据绝大多数。当创新产品质量处于中等水平(Q=0.5),模拟发现,其与广告每投50回合、间隔50回合、广告强度φ=0.005的交互以及广告每投10回合、间隔50回合、广告强度φ=0.01的交互均能取得较好的创新产品扩散结果。当创新产品质量足够高(Q=0.8),此时产品只需要适量的广告刺激即可达到非常好的扩散效果。根据本研究模拟设计情形下的扩散结果,质量0.8的创新产品在广告刺激作用下可以迅速完成整个扩散过程。 (3)在考察广告投放方式对于创新产品扩散的影响作用问题时,论文关注集中式广告投放和脉冲式广告投放的效果差异,对这两种广告投放方式进行比较,模拟结果显示,在本论文的模拟情景下,对于相同广告强度、同等长度投放周期的两种广告投放方式,集中式广告投放方式对于创新产品扩散的效果,要显著优于脉冲式广告投放方式。 (4)在考察广告投放周期与广告强度的交互作用对于创新产品扩散的影响作用问题时,研究发现广告投放周期与广告强度的交互作用对于创新产品扩散产生了一定影响作用。 (5)在考察WS小世界网络和BA无标度网络两种网络拓扑结构、以及局部世界大小对于创新产品扩散的影响作用,论文对不同网络结构、不同局部世界大小下的扩散结果进行模拟分析。通过模拟和分析,可以发现不同的网络拓扑结构和局部世界大小对于创新产品扩散结果具有多方面的影响作用。 (6)在考察种子消费者比例对于创新产品扩散的影响作用问题时,模拟结果显示,在本研究设计的情景里,创新产品扩散程度总体上会随种子消费者比例的提高呈现逐步提高的态势,二者之间具有相关性,初始种子消费者比例在一定程度上影响到产品扩散程度,并且BA网络下这种影响作用要更大一些。在当今激烈的市场竞争中,一种创新产品在某时间段内单独扩散的情形往往很难存在,市场中通常是有两种或多种创新产品同时存在,为了获取理想的市场份额,不同创新产品之间存在复杂的作用关系(最为典型的即竞争关系),展现出不同的市场扩散结果。早期的创新扩散研究都只是针对垄断性产品或一类产品,近十几年来,一些创新扩散研究中开始考虑竞争效应等问题,国外已有学者使用仿真模拟技术研究某些特定问题,国内的相关研究多停留在数学建模等阶段,鲜有运用模拟手段对这类问题进行研究分析的成果。由此,本研究对两种竞争性创新产品扩散进行模拟研究,通过借鉴Bass模型和Lotka-Volterra模型对两种竞争性创新产品扩散进行理论建模,使用系统动力学模拟软件Vensim PLE,对四类典型问题进行了模拟研究,并初步得出如下结论： (1)在考察广告对消费者影响作用和口碑对消费者影响作用对于两种竞争性创新产品扩散的重要性比较问题时,模拟研究表明：广告对消费者影响作用的变化和口碑对消费者影响作用的变化均在一定程度上影响了两种产品的市场扩散结果,广告对消费者影响作用对于产品最终市场扩散结果的重要性,要大于口碑对消费者影响作用对于产品扩散的重要性。 (2)在考察竞争性创新产品对于消费者的广告或口碑影响作用的变化对于两种产品市场扩散的影响问题时,模拟研究表明：竞争性创新产品对于消费者的广告影响作用或口碑影响作用发生变化,确实会显著影响到两种创新产品的市场扩散结果,广告或口碑影响作用的变化程度越大,对两种创新产品累积采纳者数量变化的影响程度也越大。 (3)在考察竞争性创新产品对于消费者的广告和口碑影响作用同时增强或减弱对于两种产品市场扩散的影响问题时,模拟研究表明：竞争性创新产品对于消费者的广告影响作用和口碑影响作用以一定趋势发生变化,确实会显著影响到两种创新产品的市场扩散结果。如果竞争产品的广告和口碑影响作用同时增强,则该产品的市场扩散结果可以得到显著提高；如果竞争产品的广告和口碑影响作用同时减弱,则其对手产品的市场扩散结果可以获得一定程度的改善。 (4)在考察竞争产品的广告强度与广告投放时机对于该创新产品扩散的影响问题时,模拟研究表明：在两种创新产品相互竞争的情况下,竞争产品广告强度对该产品扩散结果的影响作用要明显大于广告延迟投放对扩散结果的影响作用：随着创新产品广告强度的加大,该创新产品的最终市场扩散结果也越来越好,而广告延迟投放对产品扩散结果的影响作用却越来越小；当创新产品的广告强度达到一定程度(如0.01),该产品相较于其竞争产品已经可以充分占领市场。综上,论文从消费者视角对创新产品扩散进行了系统研究,综合使用模拟仿真等技术手段,对单一创新产品扩散和两种竞争性创新产品扩散情景下一系列具体问题开展了考察和分析,从中观察创新产品扩散形态,探究创新产品扩散规律,取得了具有理论和应用价值的研究成果。
[Abstract]:Innovative products are one of the most important factors to change the fate of human beings. It is also the core element of the survival of modern enterprises in the fierce market competition. It is of great value to the enterprise. Any product can be regarded as an innovative product at the time of its emergence, but different from universal products, innovative products usually have a distinct creation. The new performance and characteristics, take the Apple Corp as an example, its electronic digital product iPod, iPhone with excellent innovation, has achieved great market success, and to a certain extent changed the way of human life. Under the background of globalization, marketization, knowledge, and network, the enterprise is in the fierce and cruel market competition. In order to gain competitive advantage through innovation, it has important theoretical significance and practical value to see the diffusion law of innovative products, analyze the key factors of innovation diffusion and predict the trend of the diffusion of innovative products. This is the reason why the research of innovation diffusion has been flourishing for decades and occupies the important position of market research.
The diffusion of innovative products is a very complex market process. Usually, the product enters the market, spreads and spreads, spreads continuously, until the diffusion is completed. There will be different factors affecting the diffusion of innovative products at all stages, and whether the smooth diffusion of innovative products is ultimately dependent on the consumer acceptance or not. Therefore, the study of the diffusion of innovative products from the perspective of consumers is of great significance to the exploration of the essence of proliferation, the law and form of diffusion, and the research on innovation diffusion from this perspective is still in its infancy, and the research results at home and abroad are still limited. This paper is expected to be from consumption. From the perspective of researchers, we have explored and inspected the diffusion of innovative products and obtained valuable research results.
Since Bass first proposed the diffusion model for the first time in 1969, scholars have carried out a long and systematic and in-depth study. Many achievements have emerged in the field of innovation of product diffusion. With the continuous development of research, more and more ideas and theories of different disciplines have become more and more integrated into the field of research, especially simulation and simulation techniques. Development and maturity have opened up a new path for the research on the diffusion of innovative products, making a lot of specific problems in this field more detailed and detailed. The diffusion of innovative products is a great research topic, the number of specific research problems contained in this field is numerous, and it has a higher theoretical exploration and practical application value. This paper uses the technology of simulation and simulation to investigate and analyze a series of unstudied problems in the diffusion of innovative products, and further in-depth study of some important problems that have been studied from different angles and levels. Explore.
The paper considers the heterogeneity of consumers in reality. Different consumers have different needs, different target structures and different decision-making methods, which also result in different adoption results for innovative products. At the same time, consumers are in the social system, and the decisions made by consumers are not only related to the individual itself, but also influenced by the society. With the progress of communication technology and the infiltration of the Internet in daily life, the communication between consumers is more convenient and frequent, and the social impact of consumer decision-making is also increasing. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the network structure of consumers in the context of innovation diffusion. In this paper, we study the problem of the diffusion of innovative products, analyze the heterogeneity of consumers and the difference in decision-making from the microscopic consumer individuals. Through the investigation of the basic state of consumers, we explore the cognition and decision-making rules of consumers for innovative products, use multi-agent modeling and technology to model them, and then develop the related problems. In addition, the paper applies complex network theory and method to study the consumer in the network, in order to investigate the influence of network topology on the diffusion of innovative products.
In the part of the single innovation product diffusion simulation analysis part, using the multi-agent modeling principle and technology, the simulation research on the Repast Simphony platform is carried out, which not only describes and portrays the micro consumer subject, but also shows the diffusion process and the diffusion result of the innovative product from the macro level, so as to make a detailed examination of the specific problems concerned. At the same time, the thesis uses the complex network theory and method to study the consumer in the network, and investigates the influence of the two network topology and the local world size of the WS small world network and the BA scale-free network on the consumer decision-making and the diffusion of innovative products. A series of statistical analyses and tests are carried out using SPSS 16. Through simulation and analysis, a series of studies have been made on the specific problems of innovative product quality, advertising intensity and time of advertising, advertising mode, network topology, local world size of consumers and the impact of interaction on the result of the diffusion of single innovative products. Fruit, including the following aspects:
(1) when examining the impact of the quality of the innovative product itself on the product diffusion, the simulation results show that the quality of the innovative product itself has a crucial impact on the product diffusion, the better the product quality, the better the result of the diffusion, which is reflected in the two aspects of the number of cumulative adopters and the speed of diffusion.
(2) when examining the impact of the interaction between the quality of innovative products and advertising on the results of the diffusion, under the simulated scenario of this study, even if the product quality is poor, it can also reach the full diffusion of market results under the stimulus of high intensity advertising, but it is also found that the adopters have carried out the product. Negative evaluations take up the overwhelming majority. When the quality of the innovative product is at the middle level (Q=0.5), it is found that the interaction between the advertising 50 rounds, the interval of 50, the interaction of ad intensity [Phi], the 10 round of advertising, the interval of 50, the interaction of the advertising intensity [Phi] =0.01 can achieve better product diffusion results. The quality of the product is high enough (Q=0.8). At this time, the product only needs a moderate amount of advertising stimulus to achieve a very good diffusion effect. According to the results of the simulation design, the 0.8 of the innovative products can quickly complete the whole diffusion process under the action of advertising.
(3) when examining the impact of advertising on the diffusion of innovative products, the paper focuses on the difference between the effect of centralized advertising and the effect of impulse advertising, and compares the two ways of advertising. The simulation results show that in the simulation scenario of this paper, the same advertising intensity and the same length are put into the cycle. Two kinds of advertising methods, centralized advertising method for the diffusion of innovative products, the effect is significantly better than the impulse advertising mode.
(4) when examining the impact of the interaction between the advertising cycle and the advertising intensity on the diffusion of innovative products, the study found that the interaction between the advertising cycle and the advertising intensity has a certain impact on the diffusion of innovative products.
(5) in investigating the two network topology of WS small world network and BA scale-free network, and the effect of local world size on the diffusion of innovative products, the paper simulates the diffusion results of different network structures and different local world sizes. Through simulation and analysis, different network topology and parts can be found. The size of the world has many effects on the diffusion of innovative products.
(6) when examining the impact of the proportion of seed consumers on the diffusion of innovative products, the simulation results show that in the context of the design, the diffusion of innovative products will gradually increase with the increase of the proportion of the seed consumers, and the two has a correlation, and the proportion of initial seed consumers is to a certain extent. It affects the degree of diffusion of products, and the impact of BA network is even greater.
In today's fierce market competition, it is often difficult for an innovative product to spread alone in a certain period of time. There are usually two or more innovative products in the market. In order to obtain an ideal market share, there is a complex relationship between different innovative products (the most typical competitive relationship). The result of different market diffusion. The research of early innovation diffusion is only aimed at the monopoly products or a class of products. In the last decade, some problems in the research of innovation diffusion have begun to consider the competition effect, and some foreign scholars have used simulation technology to study certain specific problems, and the related research at home is mostly in the stage of mathematical modeling. There are few results of the research and analysis of this kind of problem by means of simulation. Therefore, this study simulates the diffusion of two kinds of competitive innovative products. By using the Bass model and Lotka-Volterra model for the theoretical modeling of the diffusion of two competitive innovative products, the system dynamics simulation software Vensim PLE is used for the four types of typical models. The problem is simulated and the following conclusions are reached.
(1) when examining the impact of advertising on consumers and the impact of word of mouth on consumers' impact on the diffusion of two competitive innovative products, the simulation studies show that the changes in the impact of advertising on consumers and the changes in the impact of word of mouth on consumers have affected the market expansion of the two products to a certain extent. As a result, the importance of advertising to the consumer's effect on the product's final market diffusion is more important than the importance of the impact of the word of mouth on the consumer's diffusion.
(2) when examining the impact of competitive and innovative products on consumers' advertising or word of mouth impact on the market proliferation of two products, simulation studies show that the impact of competitive innovative products on consumers' advertising or the influence of word of mouth affects the market of two kinds of innovative products. The larger the change of advertising or word of mouth, the greater the impact on the number of cumulative adopters of the two innovative products.
(3) when examining the impact of competitive and innovative products on consumers' advertising and word of mouth, the simulation study shows that the impact of competitive innovation products on consumers' advertising and the influence of word of mouth influence on the consumer's advertising and the influence of word of mouth change in a certain trend. The result of the market diffusion of two kinds of innovative products. If the effect of advertising and word of mouth of competitive products is enhanced simultaneously, the result of market diffusion of the product can be greatly improved; if the effect of advertising and word of mouth of competitive products weaken at the same time, the result of market diffusion of its rival products can be improved to a certain extent.
(4) when examining the influence of the advertising intensity and the time of advertising on the diffusion of the innovative product, the simulation study shows that the impact of the competitive product advertising intensity on the product diffusion results is significantly greater than the effect of advertising delay on the diffusion results in the case of the competition between the two innovative products. With the increase of advertising intensity of innovative products, the result of the final market diffusion of the innovative product is also getting better and better, and the effect of advertising delay on the result of the product diffusion is becoming smaller and smaller. When the advertising intensity of the innovative product reaches a certain degree (such as 0.01), the product can fully occupy the market compared to its competitive products.
In conclusion, the paper systematically analyzes the diffusion of innovative products from the perspective of consumers.

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：F224;F273.2

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