我国的国际分割化生产对生产性服务贸易的影响研究
发布时间：2018-08-25 13:08
【摘要】：20世纪70年代以来,全球性的生产与协作成为了经济全球化的重要特征,国际分工从产业间、产业内深化到产品内部。原先集中于一国或一个地区生产的产品被分割到不同的国家或地区进行,即产生了全球的分割化生产,每一个国家可以专业生产某一零部件或产品的某阶段。分割化生产的出现体现着国际分工从产品层面向产品工序、零部件层面的进一步细化,改变了世界原先的贸易流向。许多发达国家将研发设计、关键零部件的生产以及销售等高附加值的核心环节保留在国内进行,将其他劳动密集度高、附加值低的生产环节转移至其他国家或地区,各个国家通过发挥自身的比较优势和要素禀赋参与不同生产区段或零部件的生产供应活动以获取利润。以Feenstra(1998)提到的芭比娃娃的生产过程为例,由美国完成芭比娃娃的设计以及模具和染料的生产,制造设备来自于日本和欧洲,头发和塑料等材料来自于日本和台湾,棉质衣服来自于中国,最后在中国大陆的工厂内进行组装。另外在这种分割化生产方式下,美国的棉花被运输到中国,作为中国生产棉布的原材料,马来西亚和日本从中国进口塑料,进一步生产成纽扣和拉链等等。根据Hummels等人2001年的研究,国际分割化生产的比例从1970年到1995年增长了40%左右。 随着生产区段的分割程度不断增大,对联结和协调各个生产区段的生产性服务的需求种类和数量也逐渐增多。分割化生产促使诸如金融、保险、通讯服务、数据处理、技术服务、咨询服务、广告等新兴生产性服务业的迅速崛起与发展。经济全球化的背景下,各国政府也纷纷出台促进服务贸易发展的政策,客观上为全球生产性服务贸易进一步增长创造了条件。目前,生产性服务贸易在世界服务贸易额中的比重已经超过一半,由1999年的28.2%上升到2007年的51.8%。根据Jones and Kierzkowski的生产段与生产性服务链理论,国际分割化生产与生产性服务贸易的发展之间存在确定的因果关系,参与国际分割化生产的程度越高,对生产性服务贸易的需求拉动效应越明显。以美国的国际分割化生产为例,从2000年到2011年美国中间产品贸易进出口总额由10441.3257亿美元上升到19243.0597亿美元,同期带动的运输、金融、信息咨询、技术研发等生产性服务贸易增长近1.5倍。 从中国的情况来看,因其自身拥有劳动力与资源优势,多以加工贸易的方式参与国际分工。根据相关数据显示：十一五期间,中国的加工贸易额由2006年的8319亿美元增加到2010年的1.16万亿美元,占中国进出口贸易总额的48.55%。同期,中国服务贸易进出口总额从1917.5亿美元增长到3624.2亿美元,增幅达89%,其中服务出口由914亿美元增长到1702亿美元,增幅达86.21%,年均增长21.55%。与此同时,服务贸易出口世界排名上升到第四位。然而从贸易结构上来看,运输、旅游等传统型服务贸易的出口在服务贸易总出口中仍然占有相当大的比重,而金融、保险、计算机和信息服务、通讯服务等高附加值的出口贸易额仅仅占生产性服务贸易出口总额的7.6%。另外结合货物贸易发展情况,2011年中国服务贸易进出口总额只占货物贸易的12.5%,比全球平均水平低10%。这些都说明中国的生产性服务贸易的国际竞争力还有待于提高,服务贸易结构有待于优化。 学者们一方面关心国际分工对一国经济增长的贡献,同时也关心服务贸易对经济发展的支撑,而随着经济全球化以及经济系统间各个现象的联系日益紧密,生产与服务相互融合的趋势加强,需要更加关注国际分割化生产与生产性服务贸易之间的关系。中国参与国际分割化生产的程度对本国的生产性服务贸易发展有何种影响,对不同种类的生产性服务贸易的作用大小有何差异,这种差异背后的原因是什么,这些都是值得进一步深入研究的问题。 本研究旨在立足于中国的发展现状,运用规范分析和实证分析,从总体和行业两个层面,分别阐明中国的国际分割化生产对生产性服务贸易发展的作用。并且通过与美国的比较总结自身发展中的不足,学习发达国家的经验,为进一步提升自身的国际分工地位和生产性服务行业的国际竞争力,以及构建“中国制造”与生产性服务贸易良好互动发展关系,提出相应建议。因此,本文各章节主要内容如下： 第一章为绪论部分。首先介绍本文的研究背景、意义以及研究思路、方法；其次,对文章中涉及到的国际分割化生产以及生产性服务贸易等相关概念进行说明；再次为国际分割化生产对生产性服务贸易影响的文献综述。 第二章提出Jones and Kierzkowski的生产段与生产性服务理论作为文章的理论基础,并基于JK模型阐述国际分割化生产对生产性服务贸易的影响机制。 第三章为中国的国际分割化生产与生产性服务贸易发展的情况,并将其与美国的情况做比较,为下文的进一步比较分析做铺垫。 第四章是中国的国际分割化生产对生产性服务贸易总量影响的实证分析。本章在前文理论和概括分析的基础上,采用中国与美国1998-2011年中间产品贸易以及生产性服务贸易的时间序列数据,运用回归方法和比较分析的方法阐述了中国的国际分割化生产对生产性服务贸易总量的影响。 第五章是中国的国际分割化生产对生产性服务贸易结构影响的实证分析。本章采用中国与美国2002-2011年的中间产品贸易以及生产性服务贸易的面板数据,以及中美20个制造业的面板数据,对其进行回归分析,将运用回归方法和比较分析的方法阐述了中国的国际分割化生产对生产性服务贸易结构的影响。 第六章是研究结论和政策建议。本章根据实证结果的对比，从提升国际分工地位和生产性服务业国际竞争力两个角度总结了中国的分割化生产对生产性服务贸易拉动效应不明显的原因；接着在借鉴美国成功经验做法的基础上,就如何进一步提升中国国际分工地位,加快中国生产性服务贸易发展,充分发挥中国国际分割化生产对生产性服务贸易的影响作用提出了相应的政策建议。 本文的创新之处在于：首先,以往针对国际分割化生产对生产性服务贸易作用的研究大多只基于宏观的视角,很少有学者对行业细分的层面深层阐述,本文分别从总量和行业两个层面进行了研究；其次,本文运用比较分析的方法,选取美国作为发达国家的代表并以此为参照对象,也是作者的一次大胆尝试和探索。 本文的最终结论是：第一,国际分割化生产对生产性服务贸易有确定的拉动作用。在不同的国家,这种拉动效应会因参与分割化生产的程度不同、制造业在全球价值链生产中所处的分工地位不同、生产性服务业的国际竞争力不同而有所差别。第二,在同一国家内部,这种拉动效应的大小与国内制造业和生产性服务自身的要素密集度属性有关。但无论是总体规模层面还是行业层面,由于在国际分工中处于价值链生产的低端,导致能拉动的生产性服务贸易数量与种类极其有限。中国远远落后于美国。第三,中国的生产性服务贸易总体增长较快,但是存在结构失衡的问题。尤其是知识、资本、技术密集型的现代生产性服务业的国际竞争力还远远落后于国际水平,导致服务成本过高,能承接的生产性服务数量有限。当然,本文在写作过程中可能会有理论深度不够、实证模型不够完善等问题,将在以后的研究中不断扩展与修正。
[Abstract]:Since the 1970s, global production and cooperation have become an important feature of economic globalization. International division of labor has deepened from inter-industry to intra-industry. Products originally produced in one country or region have been divided into different countries or regions, that is to say, global division of production has emerged, each country can The emergence of partitioned production reflects the international division of labor from the product level to the product process, the further refinement of the component level, changed the world's original trade flow. Many developed countries will research and design, the production of key components and sales of high value-added core links to protect. Stay at home and transfer other labor-intensive, low value-added production links to other countries or regions. Each country makes a profit by taking advantage of its comparative advantage and factor endowment to participate in the production and supply activities of different production areas or parts. Take the production process of Barbie dolls mentioned in Feenstra (1998) for example. Barbie dolls are designed in the United States and molds and dyes are produced in Japan and Europe, hair and plastics are made in Japan and Taiwan, cotton clothes are made in China, and finally assembled in factories in mainland China. China, as a raw material for cotton cloth production in China, Malaysia and Japan imported plastics from China, further producing buttons and zippers, etc. According to Hummels et al. in 2001, the proportion of international fragmented production increased by about 40% from 1970 to 1995.
With the increasing degree of division of production sectors, the types and quantities of productive services needed to link and coordinate production sectors are also increasing. Separated production promotes the rapid rise and development of emerging producer services such as finance, insurance, communications services, data processing, technical services, consulting services, advertising and so on. Under the background of globalization, governments have introduced policies to promote the development of service trade, which objectively created conditions for further growth of global productive service trade. Zkowski's theory of production segment and productive service chain shows that there is a definite causal relationship between international fragmented production and the development of productive service trade. The total import and export volume of intermediate products increased from 1044.1357 billion US dollars to 192.305 billion US dollars, and the trade in transport, finance, information consultation, technology research and development and other productive services increased nearly 1.5 times over the same period.
According to relevant data, during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, China's processing trade increased from 83.19 billion US dollars in 2006 to 1.16 trillion US dollars in 2010, accounting for 48.55% of China's total import and export trade. The total import and export volume of trade in services increased from 191.75 billion US dollars to 362.42 billion US dollars, an increase of 89%. The export of services increased from 91.4 billion US dollars to 170.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 86.21% and an average annual growth of 21.55%. Meanwhile, the export of services rose to the fourth place in the world. However, from the perspective of trade structure, the traditional service trade such as transportation and tourism rose to the fourth place. Easy exports still account for a considerable proportion of total exports of services, while high value-added exports such as finance, insurance, computer and information services, and communications services account for only 7.6% of total exports of productive services. The international competitiveness of China's productive trade in services needs to be improved and the structure of trade in services needs to be optimized.
Scholars, on the one hand, are concerned about the contribution of international division of labor to a country's economic growth, on the other hand, about the support of trade in services for economic development. With the economic globalization and the increasingly close links between various phenomena in the economic system, the trend of integration of production and services has strengthened, and more attention needs to be paid to the international division of production and productive services. What is the influence of China's participation in international fragmented production on the development of productive service trade in China, and what are the differences in the effects of different types of productive service trade, and what are the reasons behind these differences, are all questions worthy of further study.
Based on the current situation of China's development, this study uses normative analysis and empirical analysis to clarify the role of China's international fragmented production in the development of productive service trade from both the overall and industrial levels, and summarizes the shortcomings of China's own development by comparing with the United States, learning from the experience of developed countries, to further raise the issue. The main contents of this paper are as follows:1. To enhance the international division of labor status and the international competitiveness of productive service industries, and to construct a good interactive relationship between "Made in China" and productive service trade.
The first chapter is the introduction. First, it introduces the research background, significance, research ideas and methods. Secondly, it explains the related concepts of international fragmented production and producer services trade. Thirdly, it gives a literature review of the impact of international fragmented production on producer services trade.
Chapter two puts forward Jones and Kierzkowski's theory of production segment and productive service as the theoretical basis of the article, and expounds the influence mechanism of international fragmented production on productive service trade based on JK model.
The third chapter is about the development of China's international fragmented production and trade in productive services, and compares it with the situation of the United States, paving the way for further comparative analysis.
Chapter Four is an empirical analysis of the impact of China's international fragmented production on the total volume of producer services trade.On the basis of the previous theoretical and general analysis, this chapter uses the time series data of intermediate products trade and producer services trade between China and the United States from 1998 to 2011, and uses regression method and comparative analysis method to expound. The impact of international fragmentation on the total volume of producer services.
Chapter 5 is an empirical analysis of the impact of China's international fragmented production on the structure of producer services trade.This chapter uses the panel data of intermediate products trade and producer services trade between China and the United States from 2002 to 2011, and the panel data of 20 manufacturing industries in China and the United States to make regression analysis. The method of analysis illustrates the impact of China's international fragmentation on the structure of producer services.
Chapter 6 is the conclusion and policy suggestion. Based on the comparison of the empirical results, this chapter summarizes the reasons why the pull effect of China's fragmented production on producer service trade is not obvious from the perspective of enhancing the status of international division of labor and the international competitiveness of producer service industry. How to further enhance China's position in international division of labor, speed up the development of China's productive service trade, and give full play to the impact of China's international division of production on productive service trade?
The innovation of this paper lies in: firstly, most of the previous studies on the effect of international fragmented production on productive service trade are based on the macro perspective, and few scholars have elaborated on the level of industry segmentation in depth. This paper studies from the two levels of aggregate and industry respectively; secondly, this paper uses the method of comparative analysis to select. As a representative of developed countries and as a reference object, the United States is also a bold attempt and exploration by the author.
The final conclusions of this paper are as follows: Firstly, international fragmented production has a definite pulling effect on producer services trade. In different countries, this pulling effect will vary with the degree of participation in fragmented production, the position of division of labor in global value chain production of manufacturing industry is different, and the international competitiveness of producer services is different. Secondly, within the same country, the magnitude of this pull effect is related to the factor-intensive nature of domestic manufacturing and productive services. However, both the overall scale level and the industry level, due to the low-end value chain production in the international division of labor, lead to the number and variety of productive services trade can be pulled extremely. China lags far behind the United States. Third, China's total growth in productive services trade is relatively rapid, but there is structural imbalance. In particular, the international competitiveness of knowledge, capital and technology-intensive modern producer services is still far behind the international level, resulting in high service costs and the number of productive services that can be undertaken. Of course, in the process of writing this paper may have theoretical depth is not enough, empirical model is not perfect and other issues, will continue to expand and revise in future research.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.68
本文编号：2202971
[Abstract]:Since the 1970s, global production and cooperation have become an important feature of economic globalization. International division of labor has deepened from inter-industry to intra-industry. Products originally produced in one country or region have been divided into different countries or regions, that is to say, global division of production has emerged, each country can The emergence of partitioned production reflects the international division of labor from the product level to the product process, the further refinement of the component level, changed the world's original trade flow. Many developed countries will research and design, the production of key components and sales of high value-added core links to protect. Stay at home and transfer other labor-intensive, low value-added production links to other countries or regions. Each country makes a profit by taking advantage of its comparative advantage and factor endowment to participate in the production and supply activities of different production areas or parts. Take the production process of Barbie dolls mentioned in Feenstra (1998) for example. Barbie dolls are designed in the United States and molds and dyes are produced in Japan and Europe, hair and plastics are made in Japan and Taiwan, cotton clothes are made in China, and finally assembled in factories in mainland China. China, as a raw material for cotton cloth production in China, Malaysia and Japan imported plastics from China, further producing buttons and zippers, etc. According to Hummels et al. in 2001, the proportion of international fragmented production increased by about 40% from 1970 to 1995.
With the increasing degree of division of production sectors, the types and quantities of productive services needed to link and coordinate production sectors are also increasing. Separated production promotes the rapid rise and development of emerging producer services such as finance, insurance, communications services, data processing, technical services, consulting services, advertising and so on. Under the background of globalization, governments have introduced policies to promote the development of service trade, which objectively created conditions for further growth of global productive service trade. Zkowski's theory of production segment and productive service chain shows that there is a definite causal relationship between international fragmented production and the development of productive service trade. The total import and export volume of intermediate products increased from 1044.1357 billion US dollars to 192.305 billion US dollars, and the trade in transport, finance, information consultation, technology research and development and other productive services increased nearly 1.5 times over the same period.
According to relevant data, during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, China's processing trade increased from 83.19 billion US dollars in 2006 to 1.16 trillion US dollars in 2010, accounting for 48.55% of China's total import and export trade. The total import and export volume of trade in services increased from 191.75 billion US dollars to 362.42 billion US dollars, an increase of 89%. The export of services increased from 91.4 billion US dollars to 170.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 86.21% and an average annual growth of 21.55%. Meanwhile, the export of services rose to the fourth place in the world. However, from the perspective of trade structure, the traditional service trade such as transportation and tourism rose to the fourth place. Easy exports still account for a considerable proportion of total exports of services, while high value-added exports such as finance, insurance, computer and information services, and communications services account for only 7.6% of total exports of productive services. The international competitiveness of China's productive trade in services needs to be improved and the structure of trade in services needs to be optimized.
Scholars, on the one hand, are concerned about the contribution of international division of labor to a country's economic growth, on the other hand, about the support of trade in services for economic development. With the economic globalization and the increasingly close links between various phenomena in the economic system, the trend of integration of production and services has strengthened, and more attention needs to be paid to the international division of production and productive services. What is the influence of China's participation in international fragmented production on the development of productive service trade in China, and what are the differences in the effects of different types of productive service trade, and what are the reasons behind these differences, are all questions worthy of further study.
Based on the current situation of China's development, this study uses normative analysis and empirical analysis to clarify the role of China's international fragmented production in the development of productive service trade from both the overall and industrial levels, and summarizes the shortcomings of China's own development by comparing with the United States, learning from the experience of developed countries, to further raise the issue. The main contents of this paper are as follows:1. To enhance the international division of labor status and the international competitiveness of productive service industries, and to construct a good interactive relationship between "Made in China" and productive service trade.
The first chapter is the introduction. First, it introduces the research background, significance, research ideas and methods. Secondly, it explains the related concepts of international fragmented production and producer services trade. Thirdly, it gives a literature review of the impact of international fragmented production on producer services trade.
Chapter two puts forward Jones and Kierzkowski's theory of production segment and productive service as the theoretical basis of the article, and expounds the influence mechanism of international fragmented production on productive service trade based on JK model.
The third chapter is about the development of China's international fragmented production and trade in productive services, and compares it with the situation of the United States, paving the way for further comparative analysis.
Chapter Four is an empirical analysis of the impact of China's international fragmented production on the total volume of producer services trade.On the basis of the previous theoretical and general analysis, this chapter uses the time series data of intermediate products trade and producer services trade between China and the United States from 1998 to 2011, and uses regression method and comparative analysis method to expound. The impact of international fragmentation on the total volume of producer services.
Chapter 5 is an empirical analysis of the impact of China's international fragmented production on the structure of producer services trade.This chapter uses the panel data of intermediate products trade and producer services trade between China and the United States from 2002 to 2011, and the panel data of 20 manufacturing industries in China and the United States to make regression analysis. The method of analysis illustrates the impact of China's international fragmentation on the structure of producer services.
Chapter 6 is the conclusion and policy suggestion. Based on the comparison of the empirical results, this chapter summarizes the reasons why the pull effect of China's fragmented production on producer service trade is not obvious from the perspective of enhancing the status of international division of labor and the international competitiveness of producer service industry. How to further enhance China's position in international division of labor, speed up the development of China's productive service trade, and give full play to the impact of China's international division of production on productive service trade?
The innovation of this paper lies in: firstly, most of the previous studies on the effect of international fragmented production on productive service trade are based on the macro perspective, and few scholars have elaborated on the level of industry segmentation in depth. This paper studies from the two levels of aggregate and industry respectively; secondly, this paper uses the method of comparative analysis to select. As a representative of developed countries and as a reference object, the United States is also a bold attempt and exploration by the author.
The final conclusions of this paper are as follows: Firstly, international fragmented production has a definite pulling effect on producer services trade. In different countries, this pulling effect will vary with the degree of participation in fragmented production, the position of division of labor in global value chain production of manufacturing industry is different, and the international competitiveness of producer services is different. Secondly, within the same country, the magnitude of this pull effect is related to the factor-intensive nature of domestic manufacturing and productive services. However, both the overall scale level and the industry level, due to the low-end value chain production in the international division of labor, lead to the number and variety of productive services trade can be pulled extremely. China lags far behind the United States. Third, China's total growth in productive services trade is relatively rapid, but there is structural imbalance. In particular, the international competitiveness of knowledge, capital and technology-intensive modern producer services is still far behind the international level, resulting in high service costs and the number of productive services that can be undertaken. Of course, in the process of writing this paper may have theoretical depth is not enough, empirical model is not perfect and other issues, will continue to expand and revise in future research.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.68
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