基于RS和GIS的莆田市土地利用景观格局监测与模拟研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 11:30

本文关键词：基于RS和GIS的莆田市土地利用景观格局监测与模拟研究　出处：《福建农林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：土地利用景观格局是指不同大小和形状的土地利用型斑块在空间上的排列状况,是景观异质性的具体表现,具有显著的时空特征。因自然环境的限制及人类活动的干扰会对土地利用景观格局造成影响,故开展对土地利用景观格局监测与模拟的深入研究,有利于为科学、合理的土地利用规划和管理政策的制定提供更多的空间资料与实际状况,为区域生态环境保护提供科学依据。莆田市地处闽中沿海山地、丘陵带,是福建省重要的绿色宝库,近年来,城市化和工业化进程的加快,致使该区域衍生出许多土地供需矛盾,生态环境遭到破坏。本研究在RS和GIS技术的支持下,以莆田市1995,2005,2015年遥感影像解译结果为基础,运用景观指数法、Shannon多样性t检验法、Logistic回归模型、Markov模型对莆田市20年间的土地利用景观格局特征变化进行分析,对不同时段不同行政区景观格局变化差异程度进行检定,对土地利用景观格局变化驱动机制进行研究,对未来莆田市林地景观格局变化进行模拟研究,并预测2015-2035年间林地转出的空间分布位置,以期为莆田市土地利用规划与管理、生态恢复和城市发展政策的制定提供科学依据。主要结论如下:(1)从土地利用面积变化上看,1995-2015年,莆田市区域林地、农用地、水体面积不断减少,建设用地面积大幅度增加,裸露地则表现为先减少后增加。从土地利用转移变化上看,1995-2005年,林地、水体转出转入双向变化特点突出;农用地、裸露地以转出为主;建设用地以转入为主,主要来源于农用地和裸露地。2005-2015年,土地利用变化程度加剧,表现为农用地与裸露地转入转出双向变化特点突出;建设用地以转入为主;林地、水体以转出为主。(2)由类别层级景观指数得知,20年间,林地的斑块密度、最大斑块指数、平均斑块大小等指标的逐年下降表明林地正处于被蚕食分割的状态之下;农用地的形状逐年趋于规则化简单化,且正处于破碎化状态;道路交通设施的逐步完善使得建设用地的连接程度逐年上升。由景观层级景观指数得知,莆田市区域景观的破碎化程度日益加深,空间聚集度逐年下降,多样性和均匀度增加。(3)根据Shannon多样性指数t检验结果,1995-2005年间、2005-2015年间和1995-2015年间这三个时段的莆田市土地利用景观格局变化均具有极显著性。除1995-2005年间城厢区和荔城区的土地利用景观格局变化不具有显著性以外,该时段内的其他行政区和其他时段的全部行政区土地利用景观格局变化均具有极显著性。(4)根据Logistic回归模型结果显示,各模型对因变数的联合解释能力均达到极显著的效果,即模型的整体性拟合效果较好。在12个驱动土地利用型发生改变的因子中,地理因子相对社会经济因子具有更大的驱动作用,同时驱动不同土地利用型发生变化的因子也不尽相同。其中坡向、高程、距裸露地距离、距农用地距离、距林地距离、人口密度与地区生产总值对林地转出具有显著的影响。(5)利用Markov模型对未来莆田市各土地利用景观面积变化进行预测。根据预测结果,2015-2075年间,林地、农用地、水体将持续减少,建设用地与裸露地持续增加,至2075年,林地的比例将减少至32.52%,建设用地占土地总面积的比例将超过林地,取代林地成为莆田市区域的主导景观,这说明城镇化进程将越来越显著。(6)利用1995-2015年的林地转出模型对2015-2035年莆田市林地转出进行空间模拟,根据模拟结果,2015-2035年,林地转出的位置主要分布在仙游县和涵江区,城厢区的林地保留相对较完善,可见2015年后,仙游县和涵江区的土地利用矛盾越来越突出,是今后土地利用规划和林地保护的重点区域。
[Abstract]:The landscape pattern of land use refers to land use type patches of different sizes and shapes are arranged in space, is a concrete manifestation of landscape heterogeneity, with spatial and temporal characteristics significantly. Due to the interference of human activities and the limitation of the natural environment impact on landscape pattern of land use, so to carry out in-depth Study on landscape pattern and monitoring simulation of land use, to provide space for science, more information and actual situation of the development of rational land use planning and management policies, and provide scientific basis for the regional ecological environment. Putian city is located in the coastal mountain area, hilly zone, is an important green treasure, in recent years in Fujian Province, city and industrialization to speed up the process, resulting in the area derived from the contradiction between supply and demand a lot of land, the destruction of the ecological environment. In this study, RS and GIS, to 199520052015 years in Putian City Remote sensing image interpretation based on the results of using the landscape index method, Shannon test method t diversity, Logistic regression model, Markov model of landscape pattern change of land use in Putian city during 20 years were analyzed for the calibration of different periods of landscape patterns in different administrative region difference degree, the landscape pattern of land use change driving mechanism research and Simulation Research for the future of Putian city forest landscape pattern change, and predict the location of 2015-2035 between woodland from space, in order for the planning and management of land use in Putian City, ecological restoration and city development policy to provide the scientific basis. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) from the area of land use change on the look. 1995-2015, Putian city agricultural land area, forest land, water area decreased continuously, the construction land area increased greatly, bare land showed increased after the first reduction from. The transfer of land use change, 1995-2005, woodland, water transferred into two-way change characteristics; agricultural land, bare land in turn; land into main construction, mainly from agricultural land and bare land.2005-2015, degree of land use change intensifies, for agricultural land and turn into a two-way change characteristics of bare outstanding; land to woodland, water into the main building; to turn out. (2) the class level landscape index that 20 years, forest patch density, largest patch index decreased year by year, the average patch size and other indicators showed that the forest is under the condition of segmentation has been eroded; agricultural land tends to shape the rule is simple, and is in a fragmented state; road traffic facilities and gradually improve the connection degree of the construction has increased year by year. By the landscape landscape level index showed that the area of Putian City The landscape fragmentation is growing, spatial aggregation decreased year by year, diversity and evenness increased. (3) according to the Shannon diversity index t test results, 1995-2005 years, Putian City, the landscape pattern of land use change between 2005-2015 and 1995-2015 during the three time were extremely significant. In addition to the landscape pattern change of land the use of 1995-2005 between Chengxiang district and Licheng District are not significant, the period of the other administrative region and all other periods of land use and landscape pattern change administrative region were significant. (4) according to the Logistic regression model showed that the model of the dependent variable explanatory power reached extremely significant the effect is better that the integrity of the model fitting effect. In the 12 driving factors changing land use type, geographical factors relative social and economic factors have a greater role in driving, At the same time, different driving factors of land use type changes are not the same. The slope, elevation, distance from bare land, agricultural land from the distance from the forest, distance, density of population and GDP have a significant impact on the forest land transferred. (5) using Markov model to predict the future changes of the landscape area land use in Putian city. According to the prediction results, 2015-2075 years, forest land, farmland, water will continue to decrease, the construction land and bare land continued to increase, to 2075, the proportion of forest land will be reduced to 32.52%, construction land accounted for the proportion of the total land area of more than woodland, woodland replaced become the dominant landscape in Putian region this shows that the process of urbanization will become more and more prominent. (6) the space simulation of forest out of 2015-2035 years in Putian City, the use of forest land transferred model for 1995-2015 years, according to the simulation results, 2015-2035 years out of the forest The main distribution in Xianyou county and Hanjiang District, Chengxiang district land reserve is relatively perfect, visible after 2015, Xianyou county and district land use contradiction is increasingly prominent, the future land use planning and key areas of forest protection.

【学位授予单位】：福建农林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P901;F301.2

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