曹妃甸工业园区地表景观格局变化预测分析

发布时间：2018-06-22 05:36

本文选题：曹妃甸工业园区 + 景观格局　；参考：《兰州交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：曹妃甸工业园区的开发规划建设日异月殊,瞬息万变,经济高速发展,产业高度集聚,地表景观格局正在发生着翻天覆地的变化,基于此现状,本文借助第一次地理国情普查数据,通过GIS平台与景观指数统计分析,对研究区的地表景观格局时空变化进行分析,预测模拟出曹妃甸工业园区未来地表景观格局结构变化趋势,以期对该区域国土空间开发合理提供建议,把握资源分布与利用,实现可持续发展的理念。本文把曹妃甸工业园区的地表景观格局研究从整体上分为了两个方面,一是把握土地覆被的结构特征和空间动态变化;二是计算景观格局指数,进而从数量上的变化体现格局特征趋势,结合两方面的变化特征,定量地揭示该区域地表景观格局的整体变化,主要对以下方面进行了研究分析。(1)通过GIS平台强大的空间分析能力,分别对曹妃甸工业园区2000、2008、2011和2014年的四期地理国情数据空间叠加分析,生成转移矩阵,从地表覆盖转化的角度入手,具体分析2000-2008、2008-2011、2011-2014和2000-2014年时期内各地表景观斑块之间的相互结构转化,进行一定的图表统计分析和绘制相对应的空间分布图,展现格局特征。接着从景观斑块的变化速率着手,用单一景观斑块动态度和综合景观格局的动态度两个指标,定量计算分析曹妃甸工业园区动态度,研究发现,该区域由于填海造地工程的原因,地表斑块间的转化较为复杂,其中,水域景观在此期间变化最明显,面积逐年减少,而区域内综合景观格局的动态度呈逐年增加趋势,在2011-2014年达到最大。(2)适当地选取TA、NP、PD、LPI、LSI、PAFRAC、CONTAG、SPLIT、SHDI和AI这十个景观指数,从类型水平和景观水平两个层面对研究区2000-2014年内四期数据的各类地表景观斑块分别计算分析,绘制指数变化走向图,刻化景观斑块格局从数量上的变化趋势,研究发现,由于受到较大的人工干扰,该区域的景观斑块急剧上升,形状趋于复杂,破碎化现象严重,景观的多样性较为丰富,空间分布的集聚性降低,特别是2000-2008年间,生态环境遭到了不同程度的破坏,较为脆弱,整体上景观格局朝着由单一向复杂的方向发展。(3)结合马尔科夫链和灰色预测模型的原理,利用数据对曹妃甸工业园区2014年地表景观格局进行预测,然后与2014年真实的数据对比,通过相对误差和中误差两个指标对模型预测精度评定,研究发现,灰色预测模型精度更高,最后,用该模型对未来做出预测,并对结果进行一定的分析。(4)借助前文中的分析研究结果,定性的分析曹妃甸工业园区地表景观格局变化的驱动因子,主要分为科技、经济、自然因素、人文因素和政策辅助因素。
[Abstract]:The development planning and construction of the Caofeidian Industrial Park are changing day and month, the economy is developing at a high speed, the industry is gathering highly, and the landscape pattern of the land surface is undergoing earth-shaking changes, based on the present situation. In this paper, with the help of the data of the first General Survey of Geographical conditions, the spatial and temporal changes of the surface landscape pattern in the study area are analyzed by means of GIS platform and landscape index statistical analysis. The forecast simulates the change trend of the future surface landscape pattern structure in Caofeidian Industrial Park in order to provide reasonable suggestions for the development of land and space in the region, grasp the distribution and utilization of resources, and realize the idea of sustainable development. In this paper, the study on the surface landscape pattern of Caofeidian Industrial Park is divided into two aspects as a whole, one is to grasp the structural characteristics of land cover and spatial dynamic change, the other is to calculate the landscape pattern index. From the quantitative changes to reflect the pattern characteristics of the trend, combined with the two aspects of the characteristics of change, quantitative reveal the overall changes of the landscape pattern of the region, The following aspects are mainly studied and analyzed. (1) through the powerful spatial analysis ability of GIS platform, the spatial superposition analysis of the four periods of geographical national conditions data of the Caofeidian Industrial Park 20002008 / 2011 and 2014 respectively is carried out to generate the transfer matrix. From the point of view of land surface cover transformation, this paper analyzes the mutual structure transformation of landscape patches in different places during the period of 2011-2014 and 2000-2014 from 2008 to 2011 to 2014 and 2000-2014, and makes a statistical analysis of charts and draws corresponding spatial distribution maps to show the pattern characteristics. Then, the dynamic degree of Caofeidian Industrial Park is calculated and analyzed quantitatively by using the dynamic attitude of single landscape patch and the dynamic degree of comprehensive landscape pattern. Because of the reclamation engineering, the transformation of surface patches in this area is more complex, among which, the water landscape changes most obviously, the area decreases year by year, and the dynamic degree of the comprehensive landscape pattern in the region increases year by year. In 2011-2014, the maximum was reached. (2) Ten landscape indices, namely, TANPNPPDLPII / LSIPAFRACU PAFRACU PANTAGANG / ITSPLSHDI and AI, were selected to calculate and analyze the various types of landscape patches in four periods of data from 2000 to 2014 in the study area from two levels of type and landscape level, and to map the trend of index change. The change trend of landscape patch pattern from the number of engraved landscape, the study found that, due to the larger artificial interference, the landscape patch increased sharply, the shape tended to be complex, the fragmentation phenomenon was serious, and the diversity of the landscape was relatively rich. The agglomeration of spatial distribution is reduced, especially from 2000 to 2008, the ecological environment has been destroyed to varying degrees, which is relatively fragile, and the overall landscape pattern is developing from a single to a complex direction. (3) combining the principle of Markov chain and grey prediction model, The surface landscape pattern of Caofeidian Industrial Park in 2014 was forecasted by data, then compared with the real data in 2014, the prediction accuracy of the model was evaluated by two indexes: relative error and middle error. The grey prediction model is more accurate. Finally, the model is used to predict the future and the results are analyzed. (4) with the help of the above analysis results, the driving factors of the surface landscape pattern change in Caofeidian Industrial Park are analyzed qualitatively. Mainly divided into science and technology, economy, natural factors, human factors and policy auxiliary factors.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P901

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