皖江示范区土地利用变化分析、评价及信息系统研究

发布时间：2018-08-09 19:34

【摘要】：随着人类活动不断的改变着土地的用途,土地利用/土地覆被变化研究越来越重要。土地在不同的因素共同作用下,逐渐的改变为人类所需要的利用类型。改革开放以来,我国经济进入飞速发展的时代,社会需求也出现了显著的改变,这直接影响了土地利用状态的变化。因此加强对土地利用变化的研究能够更好的为我国社会经济的可持续发展服务。然而,由于不同区域自然条件及经济发展水平的差异,亟需针对特定区域的社会经济、技术及劳动的投入对该区域土地利用变化的影响分析建模。本文以皖江示范区为研究对象,主要工作如下:1.在对示范区1985、2004、2011年遥感影像数据及2001至2012年间社会经济统计数据分析的基础上,采用土地利用转移矩阵、动态度、空间洛伦兹曲线方法分析了皖江示范区土地利用的空间格局变化和时序变化;2.建立了皖江示范区土地利用综合评价指标体系,确立了该区域土地利用综合评价模型,利用建立的“层次-熵权”模型计算各个参评指标的权重;同时,利用偏最小二乘回归分析方法对该区域土地利用变化的驱动力进行分析;3.设计并实现了皖江示范区土地利用分析与综合评价管理信息系统。在.NET平台下使用C#语言将上述分析方法在系统中实现,系统能够对示范区内市、县级行政区划单位内土地利用的空间格局、景观格局、动态度、驱动力进行分析,并评价该地区土地利用的综合效益,建立驱动力模型,对部分指标做出一定时间段预测。为皖江示范区土地资源的有效利用和优化配置提供参考。研究得出了如下结论:1.示范区土地利用转变的整体趋势为建设用地、耕地、林地面积的增加,其它地类面积的减少;林地、未利用地、水域、建设用地面积变化的幅度较大,年变化速率按照耕地、草地、建设用地、水域、未利用地、林地依次递增;示范区建设用地的增加主要为水域、未利用地的转入,而林地的增加主要为耕地的转入;2.1985-2004年间土地利用变化相对平稳,但2004-2011年间土地利用变化较为活跃,建设用地、耕地、林地、水域变化速率加快;建设用地初期分布均匀后期较集中,草地初期相对集中后期较均匀,耕地、林地和未利用地的分布比较集中,水域的分布比较均匀;建设用地、草地、耕地未利用地分布的稳定性比较差,水域分布的稳定性一般,林地分布的稳定性最好;3.皖江示范区内土地利用的综合效益较好的城市分别为:合肥、马鞍山、芜湖及安庆;示范区内东北部及中部沿江地区土地利用的综合效益整体较好,示范区西南部受限于自然条件,土地利用的综合效益一般;4.皖江示范区城镇化及工业化过程中变化较快的指标依次为:规模以上工业企业工业增加值、财政收入、财政支出;对耕地面积影响较高的指标为:农林牧渔业总产值、农民年人均纯收入、财政收入、财政支出,对建设用地面积影响较高的指标为:生产总值、规模以上工业企业工业增加值;同时,示范区内职工年平均工资的变化速度为农民年人均纯收入变化速度的两倍,城乡收入增速差距值得警惕。
[Abstract]:As human activities constantly change the use of land, the study of land use / land cover change is becoming more and more important. Land is gradually changed into the type of use for human being under the action of different factors. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has entered a rapid development period, and the social demand has also changed significantly. Therefore, strengthening the study of land use change can better serve the sustainable development of China's social economy. However, due to the differences in the natural conditions and the economic development level of different regions, it is urgent to use the social economy, technology and labor input in specific areas to the land use in this region. The main work of this paper is as follows: 1. on the basis of 198520042011 years remote sensing image data and social and economic statistical data analysis from 2001 to 2012, the land use transfer matrix, dynamic degree and space Lorenz curve method were used to analyze the soil of Anhui Province demonstration area. 2. the comprehensive evaluation index system of land use in Anhui river demonstration area was established, the comprehensive evaluation model of land use in this area was established, and the weight of each evaluation index was calculated by the "hierarchy entropy weight" model. At the same time, the partial least squares regression analysis method was used for the land benefit in this area. The analysis of the land use analysis and comprehensive evaluation management information system of Wanjiang demonstration area is designed and realized by using the change driving force. 3. the above analysis method is realized in the system using C# language under the.NET platform. The system can be used for the spatial pattern, landscape pattern and dynamic degree of the land use in the city and county administrative division units in the demonstration area. The driving force is analyzed, and the comprehensive benefit of land use in this area is evaluated, the driving force model is established, and some time prediction is made for some indexes. It provides a reference for the effective utilization and optimal allocation of the land resources in the Anhui demonstration area. The following conclusions are drawn: 1. the whole trend of land use transformation in the demonstration area is the construction land, plowing the land for construction. The increase in the area of woodland, the reduction of other terrestrial areas, the greater range of land, unused land, water and construction land area, the annual rate of change in accordance with the cultivated land, grassland, construction land, water, unused land, and woodland in turn; the increase of the construction land in the demonstration area is mainly water, unused land, and the increase of woodland. In the period of 2.1985-2004, the change of land use was relatively stable, but the land use change was more active during the 2004-2011 years. The rate of land use, cultivated land, woodland and water area were quicker. The distribution of land in the early stage of construction land was more concentrated, and the relative distribution of farmland, woodland and unused land in the early stage of grassland was more uniform. The distribution of the water area is more uniform; the stability of the construction land, the grassland and the unused land is poor, the stability of the water distribution is general and the stability of the woodland distribution is the best. 3. the cities with better comprehensive benefits of land use in the demonstration area of Anhui Province are Hefei, Ma'anshan, Wuhu and Anqing, and the northeast and middle part of the demonstration area. The overall benefit of land utilization in the region along the Yangtze River is better, the southwest of the demonstration area is limited to the natural conditions, and the comprehensive benefit of land use is general. 4. in the process of urbanization and industrialization of the Anhui river demonstration area, the indexes of rapid changes in the process of industrialization are as follows: the industrial added value, the financial income and the financial expenditure of the industrial enterprises above the scale, and the influence on the area of the cultivated land. The high index is: the total output value of agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry, the annual per capita net income of farmers, the financial income, the financial expenditure, the higher value of the construction land area: the gross production value, the industrial increase in Industrial Enterprises above the scale, and the change speed of the annual average wage of the workers in the demonstration area is two times the rate of the farmer's annual per capita net income change. The growth gap of township income is worth vigilant.
【学位授予单位】：安徽农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TP311.52

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