网络舆情传播与引导的CA模型研究与仿真

发布时间：2018-05-10 19:00

本文选题：舆情演化 + 元胞自动机　；参考：《西华师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着互联网对社会政治、经济、文化生活的影响与日俱增,以及新媒体建设的空前发展,网络舆情成为反映公众舆论的新形式,并受到全社会广泛的关注和重视。在此背景下,分析网络舆情产生原因,传播规律,影响因素,从理论上和技术上解释舆情动态演进机制,具有十分重要的现实意义。网络舆情传播及演化是一种复杂系统的演化过程,从人文社科邻域角度的研究方法只能对舆情发展的特征、内涵以及表现途径和形成结果等方面给出定性的描述,而无法从定量角度分析其内在演进变化机制。而元胞自动机模型具有并行性、离散性和行为系统级涌现性等特征,能够有效模拟和仿真现实网络舆情传播规律。因此,本文在整理现实网络舆情传播规律基础上,综合运用元胞自动机模型,理论分析与计算机仿真等方法,模拟舆情观点演化,构建了的舆情观点聚合和舆情引导模型。并对舆情传播与舆情引导进行了深入的仿真分析。具体的研究工作和创新点如下。(1)在舆情理论分析方面,分析了从定性和定量角度进行舆情传播的研究现状和优缺点。针对元胞自动机的特征和网络舆情传播特点。对网络舆情要素定界、舆情生命周期进行了分析。(2)在舆情传播机制研究方面,针对现有元胞自动机模型进行网络舆情研究存在的问题,通过定义多种元胞属性,离散意见值,提出了基于元胞自动机的网络舆情观点聚合演进模型。仿真实验探究了舆情主体属性和舆情主体环境因素与舆情传播及演化的关系。进行多组实验得到了J型分布和双众数分布的群体观点聚合模型。(3)在舆情导控机制研究方面,针对舆情发展生命期特点,通过定义具体导控机制下的舆情主体属性和状态转移函数,对舆情形成时期和发展时期进行了导控实验。提出两种舆情导控系数:强制导控系数和内在动力转化导控系数。并探讨了这两种导控作用不同的舆情引导效果。舆情引导终态呈现倾向中立趋势,从理论上验证了这种机制有效性。
[Abstract]:With the increasing influence of Internet on social politics, economy and cultural life, as well as the unprecedented development of new media construction, network public opinion has become a new form of reflecting public opinion, and has been widely concerned and valued by the whole society. Under this background, it is of great practical significance to analyze the causes, propagation rules, influencing factors of network public opinion and explain the dynamic evolution mechanism of public opinion theoretically and technically. The dissemination and evolution of network public opinion is a complex system evolution process. The research method from the angle of neighborhood of humanities and social sciences can only give a qualitative description of the characteristics, connotation, performance ways and formation results of public opinion development. However, it is impossible to analyze its internal evolution mechanism from a quantitative point of view. The cellular automata model has the characteristics of parallelism, discreteness and behavior system-level emergence, which can effectively simulate and simulate the law of public opinion spread in real network. Therefore, on the basis of sorting out the law of the spread of the public opinion on the real network, this paper synthetically uses the cellular automata model, theoretical analysis and computer simulation to simulate the evolution of the opinion of the public opinion, and constructs the aggregation and guidance model of the opinion of the public opinion. And carried on the thorough simulation analysis to the public opinion dissemination and the public opinion guidance. The specific research work and innovation are as follows: 1) in the theoretical analysis of public opinion, this paper analyzes the current research situation, advantages and disadvantages of public opinion transmission from the qualitative and quantitative perspectives. According to the characteristics of cellular automata and network public opinion dissemination characteristics. In the aspect of the research on the communication mechanism of public opinion, aiming at the problems existing in the research of network public opinion based on the existing cellular automata model, this paper defines a variety of cellular attributes and discretizes the opinion values, and analyzes the boundary of the elements of network public opinion and the life cycle of public opinion. Based on cellular automata, a model of network public opinion aggregation and evolution is proposed. The simulation experiment explores the relationship between the attribute of public opinion subject and the environmental factors of public opinion subject and the dissemination and evolution of public opinion. A group view aggregation model of J-type distribution and double-mode distribution was obtained by multi-group experiments. In the aspect of guiding and controlling mechanism of public opinion, according to the characteristics of the life period of public opinion development, By defining the attribute and state transfer function of the public opinion subject under the specific guidance and control mechanism, the guidance and control experiments were carried out in the period of formation and development of public opinion. Two kinds of guiding and controlling coefficients of public opinion are proposed: forced guide control coefficient and intrinsic dynamic transformation guide control coefficient. And discussed the two different guidance and control of public opinion guidance effect. Public opinion leads the final state to a neutral trend, which theoretically verifies the effectiveness of this mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：西华师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G206;TP301.1

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