中国疟疾风险评估理论模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-16 02:13

本文关键词：中国疟疾风险评估理论模型研究　出处：《中国公共卫生》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：疟疾风险评估是疟疾管理的重要环节。本研究旨在界定疟疾风险的概念,以不确定性、脆弱性理论为基础,从疟疾发生的可能性和脆弱性2个维度构建疟疾消除后的风险评估概念框架。一个地区不具备疟疾发生的可能性且疟防系统不存在脆弱性问题,可视为永久性的无疟疾风险状态;只有疟疾风险发生的可能性较大和系统脆弱性较大时,疟疾风险才会存在;两者任何一方取值很低时,疟疾风险值很低,但风险会随着低值一方取值增加而增加。因此应以疟疾风险评估概念框架为基础,进而确立疟疾风险评估指标框架,包括传染源、传播媒介风险、人群暴露风险3个维度的可能性指标框架及经济脆弱性、社会脆弱性、政治脆弱性、卫生系统脆弱性和敏感性5个维度的脆弱性指标框架,最终确立疟疾风险评估的相关指标。
[Abstract]:Malaria risk assessment is an important link of malaria management. This paper aims at defining the concept of malaria risk, uncertainty, vulnerability theory, from the probability and vulnerability of the 2 dimensions of malaria elimination of the risk assessment framework. A region do not have the possibility of the occurrence of malaria and malaria system there is no vulnerability, regarded as malaria risk permanently; there is more possibility of large and fragile system only malaria risk occurs, there will be two malaria risk; any one value is very low, the malaria risk value is very low, but the risk will increase with the increase of low value value. Therefore a party should be based on the risk assessment framework for the basic concept of malaria, malaria and establish risk evaluation index framework, including the source of infection, media risk exposure risk index framework, the possibility of the 3 dimensions and The vulnerability index framework of 5 dimensions, including economic vulnerability, social vulnerability, political vulnerability, vulnerability and sensitivity of health system, finally establishes relevant indicators of malaria risk assessment.

【作者单位】：华中科技大学医药卫生管理学院;湖北省人文社科重点研究基地—农村健康服务研究中心;密德萨斯大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71473097)
【分类号】：R531.3
【正文快照】： 中国现处于疟疾消除阶段,部分地区通过消除疟疾考核后,资源配置和政策投入等相关政策以及工作模式需要进一步调整。虽然我国本地疟疾病例逐渐消失,但输入性病例却逐年增多,疟疾传染源依然存在[1];同时,传播媒介按蚊很难消灭,外来疟原虫感染本地媒介而导致产生二代病例等风险仍

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