浙江省2013—2014年人感染H7N9禽流感病例空间自相关分析

发布时间：2018-02-01 12:42

本文关键词： 人感染HN禽流感空间自相关分析趋势面分析空间回归分析协同克里金插值法　出处：《中国公共卫生》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的了解浙江省2013—2014年人感染H7N9禽流感病例的时空分布模式,为疫情的有效防控和预警提供科学依据。方法收集2013年1月—2014年12月浙江省传染病疫情直报系统中人感染H7N9禽流感病例数据,应用Arc GIS 10.0软件分析病例分布的趋势和聚集性,并预测区域发病风险。结果浙江省2013—2014年共报告140例人感染H7N9禽流感病例,分别于2013年3—4月(45例)和2014年1—2月(84例)出现2个疫情高峰;全局自相关分析结果显示,2014年病例分布的聚集性(I=0.51,Z=6.48,P0.001)较2013年病例分布的聚集性(I=0.27,Z=5.93,P0.001)有所增强;热点分析结果显示,2013年人感染H7N9禽流感的热点区域主要分布在浙江省中北部的杭州市区、余杭区、萧山区、富阳市、德清县、海宁市等6个地区(Z≥1.96),2014年热点区域范围进一步扩大至安吉县、柯城区、宁波市区、慈溪市、余姚市等5个地区(Z≥1.96);趋势面分析结果显示,人感染H7N9禽流感发病在东西方向上呈先升高后降低趋势,在南北方向上呈逐步上升趋势;空间回归分析结果显示,人感染H7N9禽流感病例数与人口密度和纬度有关(均P0.05),纬度越高、人口密度越大,出现病例的数量越多;协同克里金插值法预测结果显示,浙江省中北部地区以及东部沿海部分地区出现疫情的概率较高,与病例空间分布较为一致。结论浙江省人感染H7N9禽流感的发病在时间和空间尺度均有明显空间聚集性,以冬春季节和浙江北部地区的疫情较为严重。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the temporal and spatial distribution patterns of human H7N9 avian influenza cases in Zhejiang Province from 2013 to 2014. Methods the data of human H7N9 avian influenza cases were collected from January 2013 to December 2014 in Zhejiang Province. The trend and aggregation of case distribution were analyzed by Arc GIS 10.0 software. Results 140 cases of H7N9 avian influenza were reported in Zhejiang province in 2013-2014. There were 2 peaks in 2013 (45 cases) and 2014 (84 cases). The results of global autocorrelation analysis showed that the aggregation of the case distribution in 2014 was 0.27 more than that in 2013. ZH5.93 (P0.001); The results of hot spot analysis showed that in 2013, the hot spots of H7N9 avian influenza were mainly distributed in Hangzhou, Yuhang, Xiaoshan, Fuyang and Deqing counties in central and northern Zhejiang province. In 2014, the hot spots in Haining and other 6 areas were further expanded to 5 areas, such as Anji County, Kecheng District, Ningbo City, Cixi City, Yuyao City, and so on. The results of trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of human H7N9 avian influenza increased first in east-west direction, then decreased in east-west direction, and increased gradually in north-south direction. The results of spatial regression analysis showed that the number of human cases infected with H7N9 avian influenza was related to population density and latitude (both P0.05N, the higher the latitude, the higher the population density, the more the number of cases appeared. The prediction results of synergetic Kriging interpolation method showed that the probability of epidemic occurrence was higher in the central and northern areas of Zhejiang Province and in the eastern coastal areas. Conclusion the incidence of H7N9 avian influenza infection in Zhejiang Province has obvious spatial aggregation in time and space scale, especially in winter and spring season and in northern Zhejiang Province.
【作者单位】：浙江省疾病预防控制中心;
【基金】：浙江省医药卫生科技项目(2016KYB060) 浙江省疾病预防控制中心青年科技项目(2013001)
【分类号】：R511.7
【正文快照】： 作者单位:浙江省疾病预防控制中心,杭州310051人感染禽流感是由禽流感病毒引起的人类疾病。由于近几年才有人感染H7N9禽流感的报道,因此缺少有效的治疗手段,使得其病死率高达40%[1],曾一度造成公众的恐慌并严重影响了家禽产业的发展。浙江省是中国人感染H7N9禽流感疫情最为严

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