2005-2016年银川市风疹发病季节性特征分析

发布时间：2018-02-09 04:17

本文关键词： 风疹季节性特征集中度圆形分布法　出处：《现代预防医学》2017年22期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的通过分析银川市风疹发病的季节性特征,为制定更完善的风疹防控策略及措施提供科学依据。方法应用集中度法和圆形分布法探究银川市风疹发病的季节性规律,并比较风疹疫苗普种前后风疹发病季节性变化的趋势。结果2005-2016年银川市风疹的集中度为总M=0.682,疫苗普种前后M值依次为0.679、0.685。圆形分布集中趋势r值为总r=0.681,发病高峰日为5月19日,发病高峰期为3月29日-7月8日,高峰期长达101 d;疫苗普种前,r=0.678,发病高峰日及高峰期依次为5月17日,3月26日-7月7日,高峰期跨度为103 d;疫苗普种后,r=0.685,发病高峰日及高峰期依次为5月20日,3月31日-7月10日,高峰期跨度为101 d。分别对疫苗普种前后的M值、平均角α和高峰期跨度进行假设检验,得到检验值t和概率值P依次为:-0.753/0.446、2.966/0.05和0.789/0.446。结论风疹的发病具有明显的季节性,发病高峰在3月下旬-7月上旬。疫苗的普遍接种在一定程度上改变了风疹的季节性特征,应根据风疹的流行特点及其变化趋势及时调整防控措施。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the seasonal characteristics of rubella in Yinchuan City, and to provide scientific basis for making more perfect prevention and control strategies and measures. Methods the method of concentration and circular distribution was used to explore the seasonal regularity of rubella incidence in Yinchuan city. Results from 2005 to 2016, the concentration rate of rubella in Yinchuan city was 0.682, and the M value before and after inoculation was 0.679% 0.685.The trend of circular distribution was r = 0.681.The peak day of rubella incidence was May 19th, and compared the seasonal change of rubella incidence before and after the introduction of rubella vaccine in Yinchuan city from 2005 to 2016.Results the concentration rate of rubella was 0.682in Yinchuan city from 2005 to 2016. The peak period of onset was from March 29th to July 8th, and the peak period was 101 days. The peak span was 103d, the peak period was 0.685 days, the peak day and peak period were May 20th, March 31st ~ July 10th, and the span was 101d. the M value, mean angle 伪 and span of peak period before and after vaccination were tested, respectively. The test value t and probabilistic value P were: -0.753 / 0.4460.966r0.05 and 0.789 / 0.446respectively. Conclusion the incidence of rubella has obvious seasonality, the peak of which is from late March to early July. To some extent, the general vaccination of the vaccine has changed the seasonal characteristics of rubella. The prevention and control measures should be adjusted in time according to the epidemic characteristics of rubella and its changing trend.
【作者单位】：银川市卫生和计划生育委员会;宁夏医科大学;银川市疾病预防控制中心;
【分类号】：R181.3;R511.2

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