2010-2014年锦州市流感监测及时空分布特征分析

发布时间：2018-02-17 04:29

本文关键词： 流感时空分析监测　出处：《现代预防医学》2015年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的对锦州市城区(街道)监测的流感样病例特征进行描述,并进行聚集性分析,为制定流感防控措施提供理论依据。方法 2010年4月-2014年3月,对锦州市的流感样病例(Influenza-Like Illness,ILI)的监测数据和病原学监测结果进行分析;并采用时空重排模型对流感样病例进行聚集性分析。结果流感监测结果显示,2010年4月-2014年3月,锦州市共检测ILI标本3 298份,分离出流感病毒136株,阳性率为4.12%,流感流行期为每年12月份-次年2月份,历年按月份所监测的流感病毒阳性率高峰值与ILI%高峰期两者趋势存在正相关(r=0.273;P=0.027);2010年4月-2014年3月期间,时空扫描分析分别发现4起、3起、2起和5起聚集性区域,最有可能聚集性区域集中在天安街道、保安街道、北街街道和站前街道。结论将流感常规监测与时空聚集性分析方法相结合,准确发现流感聚集性区域,对流感的早期预警和传播控制具有重要应用价值。
[Abstract]:Objective to describe the characteristics of influenza-like cases monitored in Jinzhou City (streets), and to analyze their clustering, and to provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of influenza prevention and control measures. Methods from April 2010 to March 2014, The surveillance data and etiological monitoring results of Influenza-Like Illnessessi) in Jinzhou City were analyzed, and the agglomeration of influenza-like cases was analyzed by time-space rearrangement model. Results Influenza surveillance showed that from April 2010 to March 2014, A total of 3 298 ILI specimens were detected in Jinzhou City, and 136 strains of influenza virus were isolated. The positive rate was 4.12. The influenza epidemic period was December to February of the following year. There was a positive correlation between the peak of influenza virus positive rate and the peak period of ILI% in the past years. There was a positive correlation between the positive rate of influenza virus and the peak period of ILI%. During the period from April 2010 to March 2014, 4 cases, 3 cases, 2 cases and 5 clustered areas were found by time and space scanning analysis, respectively. The most likely areas of agglomeration are in the streets of Tian'an, Bao'an, Bei Street and the front street. Conclusion combined with routine influenza surveillance and temporal and spatial clustering analysis, the area of influenza clustering can be accurately found. It has important application value for early warning and transmission control of influenza.
【作者单位】：辽宁医学院附属第一医院;锦州市疾病预防控制中心;辽宁省疾病预防控制中心;
【基金】：国家重大传染病防治科技重大专项项目(2012ZX10004209-001)
【分类号】：R511.7

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