SARIMA模型在新疆手足口病发病率预测中的应用

发布时间：2018-02-25 17:11

本文关键词： 手足口病时间序列分析 SARIMA模型　出处：《数学的实践与认识》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：建立新疆手足口病发病率的季节求和自回归-移动平均模型(Seasonal AutoregressiveIntegrated Moving Average Model,SARIMA),探讨采用SARIMA模型预测手足口病发病趋势的可行性和实用性.利用R统计软件基于新疆2006-2012手足口病月发病率数据建立SARIMA模型,拟合2012年手足口病各月发病率数据,并预测了2013年手足口病月发病率.经过序列平稳化、模型识别以及模型诊断,SARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,0)_(12)能较好地拟合既往时间段的发病率,且预测值符合新疆手足口病实际发病率的波动趋势.SARIMA模型能够有效地预测手足口病发病趋势,对预警、防控具有积极指导意义.
[Abstract]:To establish the seasonal summation autoregressive moving average model of HFMD incidence in Xinjiang, to explore the feasibility and practicability of using SARIMA model to predict the incidence trend of HFMD in Xinjiang, and to explore the feasibility and practicability of using R statistical software based on Xinjiang hand, foot and mouth disease from 2006 to 2012. SARIMA model was established based on the monthly morbidity data of foot diseases. The monthly incidence of HFMD on 2012 was fitted, and the monthly incidence of HFMD in 2013 was predicted. After sequence stabilization, model recognition and model diagnosis, the incidence of HFMD in previous period could be well fitted. The predicted value is in line with the fluctuation trend of actual incidence of HFMD in Xinjiang. SARIMA model can effectively predict the incidence trend of HFMD, which has positive guiding significance for early warning, prevention and control.
【作者单位】：新疆医科大学医学工程技术学院;新疆医科大学公共卫生学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(11401512,11461073) 新疆医科大学卫生事业发展改革研究所项目(HADR201501)
【分类号】：R181.3;R512.5

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