基于GIS的2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 03:10

本文关键词： 甲型H1N1流感时空分布多尺度影响因素　出处：《陕西师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文旨在分析2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行早期疫情地理时空分布特征,评价全球化背景下国际人口流动、地区气候环境差异对甲型H1N1流感大流行影响,为国家制定防控策略提供事实依据。首先,本文回顾了2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行过程,总结了各国针对本次疫情的防控策略。其次,通过利用基于球面距离的Ripley's K函数,分析了2009年甲型H1N1流感全球大流行早期疫情的空间分布模式。时间分布上,对比2000至2012历年甲型流感确诊病例数,分析不同纬度国家或地区甲型H1N1流感周新增病例数的时间分布特征。在此基础上,本文分析国际人口流动和甲型H1N1流感大流行的相关性。通过构建“出发地-目的地”航空网络,进一步分析城市航空网络对甲型H1N1流感传播的影响。最后,本文对比不同气候环境下甲型H1N1流感的疫情,设计对照组实验,研究疫情地的气温、降水、相对湿度、大气压、绝对湿度等5个基本气候因素对本次流感大流行的影响。结果表明至2009年6月底甲型H1N1流感疫情呈聚类分布,其L函数值曲线类似于全球主要城市L函数曲线。78.5%的甲型流感病例位于65个全球城市周围600公里范围内。同时,北温带国家(地区)的疫情在第45周到第48周之间集中大规模暴发,早于历年甲型流感疫情流行高峰时间。部分北温带国家(地区)在6、7月传统甲型流感流行季节仍有大量病例出现。国际旅行人数与甲型H1N1流感病例数的相关性研究显示国际旅行在流感大流行早期(2009年第19、20周)有很强的正相关性。进一步的基于全球城际航空网络的聚类分析显示网络中城市对领域范围内的作用越重要越容易出现疫情。最后,不同气候带的疫情比较结果不符合病毒攻读实验低温干燥环境有利于流感传播的结果。但是,通过系统的对照实验,发现疾病组具有较低的平均气温,即低温有利甲型H1N1流感的传播。然而,降水、绝度湿度、相对湿度、大气压四个因素没有显著的差别。综合考虑甲型H1N1流感的时空分布以及国际人口流动和甲型H1N1流感的关系的研究结果,本文认为国际人口流动是流感传播的重要途径,主导着本次流感大流行前期全球传播方向。全球城市在航空网络中起重要的作用,是疫情扩散的关键节点。后期疫情主要由各地区气候环境、人口分布等因素主导。不同纬度的环境条件对2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行有重要影响,低温有利甲型H1N1流感的传播。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to analyze the geographical and temporal distribution characteristics of the early influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in 2009, and to evaluate the impact of international population mobility and regional climatic and environmental differences on the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in the context of globalization. First of all, this paper reviews the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in 2009, and summarizes the prevention and control strategies for this epidemic. Secondly, by using the Ripley's K function based on spherical distance, This paper analyzes the spatial distribution pattern of the early pandemic of influenza A (H1N1) in 2009, and compares the number of confirmed cases of influenza A between 2000 and 2012. This paper analyzes the time distribution characteristics of the new cases of influenza A (H1N1) week in different latitude countries and regions. This paper analyzes the correlation between the international population flow and the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, and further analyzes the impact of urban aviation networks on the transmission of influenza A (H1N1) through the establishment of an "embarkation-destination" aviation network. This paper compares the epidemic situation of influenza A (H1N1) in different climatic environments, designs a control group experiment, and studies the effects of five basic climatic factors, such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and absolute humidity, on the influenza pandemic in the epidemic area. The results showed that the influenza A (H1N1) epidemic was clustered by the end of June 2009, and its L function curve was similar to that of major cities in the world. 78.5% of influenza A cases were located within 600 kilometers around 65 cities. Outbreaks in northern temperate countries (regions) were concentrated in the 45th to 48th week, Earlier than the previous peak time of influenza A epidemic. Some northern temperate countries (regions) in 6, July there are still a large number of cases in the traditional influenza A epidemic season. International travel and the number of cases of influenza A H1N1 correlation study. International travel is strongly positively correlated in the early stages of the influenza pandemic (week 1920 on 2009). Further clustering analysis based on the global intercity aviation network shows that the more important the role of cities in the network within the domain. Prone to outbreaks. Finally, The results of comparison of epidemic situation in different climatic zones do not accord with the results of virus study in cold and dry environment. However, through systematic controlled experiments, we found that the average temperature of the disease group was lower than that of the control group. However, the four factors of precipitation, absolute humidity, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure have no significant difference. Considering the temporal and spatial distribution of influenza A (H1N1) and the relationship between international population flow and influenza A (H1N1), this paper holds that international population mobility is an important route of influenza transmission. Leading the global transmission direction in the early stages of the pandemic. Global cities play an important role in the aviation network and are the key nodes for the spread of the epidemic. In the latter stage, the epidemic is mainly caused by the climate environment of various regions. Environmental conditions at different latitudes have an important impact on the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in 2009, and low temperatures are conducive to the spread of influenza A (H1N1).
【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：R511.7;P208

【参考文献】