山西省人布鲁氏菌病时空聚集特征及可视化研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 08:15

本文选题：人布鲁氏菌病　切入点：分布特征　出处：《山西医科大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目的:以县(区)级行政区域为空间单元创建山西省人布鲁氏菌病地理信息数据库,描述全省2011~2015年人布鲁氏菌病的人群分布、时间分布和地区分布,探索空间分布关系和时空聚集特征及某些可能影响布病分布的相关因素,并对结果进行可视化展示,为山西省制定有效、合理的布病防控策略提供科学的依据。方法:本研究利用现有的山西省布病监测数据,并从《山西省统计年鉴》、国家地球系统科学数据共享平台和地理空间数据云收集其它相关数据,以县级行政区划为空间单元对山西省布病开展系统研究。首先,采用探索性空间数据分析描述布病的分布特征,并揭示疾病的空间关联类型;继而,应用时空扫描统分析的方法,准确探测山西省布病的高危时空聚集区;并应用Arc Gis10.2.2等相关软件对以上结果进行可视化展示。结果:山西省人布鲁氏菌病分布特点:(1)40~60岁年龄的人有较高的报告病例数,且男性的报告病例数要高于女性,布病患者大部分从事农牧业工作;(2)2011~2015年人布鲁氏菌病的报告发病率总体上呈上升趋势,且有明显的季节特征,主要发生在3~7月份,其中以5月最高;(3)主要集中在山西省北部县区,大致呈南低北高和西低东高的弧形趋势,这些地区大都为海拔1500-1800m,牧业发达且以牛羊为主的地区。全局Moran’s I系数显示,2011~2015年山西省119县(区)人布病报告发病率存在空间正相关,呈聚集性分布。局部Moran’s I系数显示,5年期间共有43个县区为“高-高”聚集区,且这些县区均集中在山西省北方。时空扫描分析结果指出山西省有统计学意义的时空聚集区一共有9个,分别为一级时空聚集区和8个次级时空聚集区。其中一级时空聚集区(LLR=4087.85,RR=3.98,P0.001)的聚集中心为新荣区,半径为158.03km,聚集时间段始于2013年1月1日,止于2014年12月31日,总人口数为580.47万人,所辖县区数为21。次级时空聚集区主要有:(1)以榆社县为中心,辖4个县区,聚集于2011年1月1日-2012年12月31日(LLR=475.71,RR=3.18,P0.001),总人口数为89.18万人;(2)以永和县为中心,辖1个县区,聚集于2013年1月1日-2014年1月1日(LLR=319.34,RR=9.62,P0.001);(3)以沁源县为中心,辖2个县区,聚集于2013年1月1日-2014年12月31日(LLR=145.27,RR=2.90,P0.001)。结论:本研究针对山西省最近几年人布病发病率的上升趋势,围绕其流行特征及相关因素、空间分布关系和时空聚集的研究思路,综合运用遥感和地理信息技术、空间自相关分析和时空扫描分析。可以较好且形象直观的:(1)描述山西省布病的人群分布、时间分布和空间分布的特点;(2)探索山西省布病的空间分布关系和时空聚集性。提示山西省布病的防控工作应将重点放到北部的一些县(区),应特别注意在春、夏季节从事牛、羊养殖的人群。
[Abstract]:Objective: to establish the geographic information database of brucellosis in Shanxi province with the administrative region of county (district) level as the spatial unit, and to describe the population distribution, time distribution and regional distribution of brucellosis in Shanxi province from 2011 to 2015. To explore the spatial distribution relationship, spatial and temporal aggregation characteristics and some related factors that may affect the distribution of brucellosis, and to visualize the results, so as to establish an effective method for Shanxi Province. Reasonable prevention and control strategies of brucellosis provide scientific basis. Methods: the present monitoring data of brucellosis in Shanxi Province were used in this study. And from the Statistical Yearbook of Shanxi Province, the National Earth system Scientific data sharing platform and Geospatial data Cloud collect other relevant data, and take the county administrative division as the spatial unit to carry out the systematic research on Bubu disease in Shanxi Province. Using exploratory spatial data analysis to describe the distribution characteristics of brucellosis, and to reveal the spatial correlation type of the disease, and then to accurately detect the high risk space-time accumulation area of brucellosis in Shanxi Province by using the method of space-time scanning system analysis. Arc Gis10.2.2 and other related software were used to visualize the above results. Results: the distribution of brucellosis in Shanxi Province was higher than that in women, and the number of reported cases in men was higher than that in women. The reported incidence of brucellosis in most of the patients engaged in agricultural and animal husbandry work from 2011 to 2015 showed an upward trend, and had obvious seasonal characteristics, mainly in March and July, in which the highest incidence occurred in May in the northern counties of Shanxi Province. There is an arc trend of south low north high and west low east high. Most of these areas are 1500-1800m above sea level. The overall Moran's I coefficient shows that there is a positive correlation between 2011 and 2015 in the reported incidence rate of human cloth disease in 119 counties (districts) of Shanxi Province. The local Moran's I coefficient showed that there were 43 counties and districts with "high-high" concentration in five years. These counties and regions are all concentrated in the north of Shanxi Province. The results of space-time scanning analysis show that there are nine spatio-temporal areas in Shanxi Province that have statistical significance. The gathering center of the first class Spatio-temporal accumulation area is Xinrong area with a radius of 158.03km.The gathering time period begins on January 1st 2013 and ends on December 31st 2014, with a total population of five million eight hundred and four thousand and seven hundred people. The number of counties under the jurisdiction is 21.The main sub-space-time concentration areas are: 1) with Yushe County as the center and 4 counties under its jurisdiction, gathered in January 1st 2011 to December 31st 2012 in LLRN 475.71 RRN 3.18 P0.001T, with a total population of 891,800 people, with Yonghe County as the center and one county district under its jurisdiction. Collected from January 1st 2013 to January 1st 2014, LLRN 319.34 RRN 9.62P0.001) Qinyuan County as the center, two counties under its jurisdiction, and LLRN 145.27RRN 2.90 P0. 001T from January 1st 2013 to January 1st 2013. Conclusion: this study aims at the rising trend of the incidence of endemic diseases in Shanxi Province in recent years. Focusing on its epidemic characteristics and related factors, spatial distribution relations and space-time aggregation research ideas, comprehensive use of remote sensing and geographic information technology, Spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scanning analysis. It can describe the population distribution of brucellosis in Shanxi Province. The characteristics of time distribution and spatial distribution are to explore the spatial distribution relationship and spatio-temporal aggregation of brucellosis in Shanxi Province. It is suggested that the prevention and control of brucellosis in Shanxi Province should focus on some counties in the north, and should pay special attention to cattle in spring and summer festivals. A flock of sheep.
【学位授予单位】：山西医科大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：R181.3;R516.7

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