湖北省血吸虫病的时空格局及气象因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 00:27

  本文选题：血吸虫病　切入点：气象因素　出处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2015年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的探索2004-2008年湖北省血吸虫病的时空格局,并探讨其气象影响因素。方法用Moran散点图和Poisson模型时空扫描统计量探索血吸虫病的高发时空格局。普通线性回归、空间迟滞模型和空间误差模型从全局水平上探讨气象影响因素。结果监利、潜江、江陵、石首、公安、荆州和仙桃等为湖北血吸虫病的发病"热点"。主要时空聚集区位于2007-2008年,聚集中心在监利县,辖石首、公安、江陵、潜江、荆州、仙桃、天门、洪湖、汉川、嘉鱼、赤壁、汉南区、蔡甸区等市县区(RR=7.99,LLR=474 034.50,radius=117.32 km,P0.001);次级时空聚集区位于2006-2007年,聚集在阳新县(RR=3.43,LLR=14 799.50,P0.001)。空间迟滞模型发现年均最高气温对发病率有负向效应(-3.41≤β≤-1.66,P=0.053)、年均相对湿度对发病率有正向效应(0.18≤β≤0.24,P=0.019)。结论 2004-2008年,湖北血吸虫病在长江沿岸、湘鄂交界处的鄂中南地区,以及鄂东南的阳新县呈现高发聚集态势。年均最高气温和年均相对湿度是影响湖北省血吸虫病流行的气象指标。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the temporal and spatial pattern of schistosomiasis in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2008, and to explore its meteorological influencing factors. Methods the spatial and temporal patterns of schistosomiasis were investigated by Moran scatter plot and Poisson model. Results Jianli, Qianjiang, Jiangling, Shishou, public security, Jingzhou and Xiantao are the hot spots of schistosomiasis in Hubei province. The gathering center is located in Jianli County, which has jurisdiction over Shishou, public security, Jiangling, Qianjiang, Jingzhou, Xiantao, Tianmen, Honghu, Hanchuan, Jiayu, Chibi, Hannan, Caidian and other city and county districts, such as RRR7.9NV LLRCU 474,034.50 Gus117.32 kmP0.001T; the secondary space-time accumulation area is located in 2006-2007. The spatial hysteresis model shows that the annual maximum air temperature has a negative effect on the incidence of the disease. The average annual relative humidity has a positive effect on the incidence of schistosomiasis along the Yangtze River, and the average annual relative humidity has a positive effect on the incidence of schistosomiasis on the Yangtze River. Conclusion from 2004 to 2008, the incidence of schistosomiasis in Hubei Province is on the Yangtze River coast, and the average annual relative humidity has a positive effect of 0.18 鈮，

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