基于时空分析的中国戊肝分布及其成因研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 14:16

本文选题：戊型病毒性肝炎　切入点：空间自相关　出处：《浙江师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国是肝炎大国,甲肝和乙肝是我国最主要的两型肝炎。但近几年的研究资料表明,伴随着我国新生儿进行乙肝疫苗普种和甲肝疫苗的推广,甲肝和乙肝在我国的危害逐渐得到控制并趋减小,然而戊肝的危害却慢慢凸显且成为我国的一个重要公共卫生问题。正确认识戊肝空间分布特征及其影响因子,对制定切实有效的防预措施具有重要意义。本文主要借助arcGIS、GeoDa、Excel等软件,提取了2005～2010年全国大陆31个省、市、自治区的6年戊肝发病数、人口数和中国电子地图等资料,并建立具有空间属性的戊肝发病数据库；运用GeoDa空间统计软件,采用空间自相关分析对戊肝发病进行空间聚集性研究；在此基础上,采用时空扫描统计软件(SaTScan)对疾病发病的冷热点区域进行判定,同时对发病风险进行预测,并借助SPSS软件将戊肝发病率与地理因子进行空间回归分析,从地理角度探讨戊肝成因,为我国戊肝防治提供理论依据和新思路。经过分析研究,主要得出以下结论：全局Moran's I指数表明,研究时段的Moran's I指数均大于0,数据存在空间正相关,即呈现高高聚集和低低聚集格局。局域Moran's Ii、 Moran散点图及LISA积聚图显示,虽然6年来一些地区的戊肝发病率有些变动,但整体上我国东部地区多为高值高邻居分布,西部内陆地区多为低值低邻居分布。采用空间扫描统计进行热点区域研究,结果与LISA积聚图较为吻合,从2005～2010年,戊肝发病的热点区域主要还是在东部沿海地区,但是由多热点向单热点演化,并且热点区域范围增大。即戊肝发病由零散的点状分布向连续的块状分布发展,形势较为严峻。采用风险评估法对热点区域的发病趋势进行研究,得出我国高发病风险值呈现下降趋势,低发病风险值呈上升态势。结合全局Moran指数,戊肝发病风险的集聚性呈减弱趋势,即全国的戊肝高发病风险随着时间的变化其发病集聚性将淡化,意味着发病风险区域呈扩大趋势。基于空间回归模型中的空间滞后模型(SLM),将戊肝发病与地理因子做回归分析,结果表明,戊肝发病与居民消费水平和工业污水排放呈正相关,与生活污水排放呈负相关。
[Abstract]:China is a big hepatitis country, hepatitis A and hepatitis B are the most important hepatitis two hepatitis in our country. However, the research data in recent years show that with the popularization of hepatitis B vaccine and hepatitis A vaccine for newborns in our country, The harm of hepatitis A and hepatitis B in China was gradually controlled and gradually decreased, but the harm of hepatitis E was gradually prominent and became an important public health problem in our country. It is of great significance to make effective preventive measures. In this paper, with the help of arcGIS-GeoDa-Excel software, the incidence of HEV in 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China from 2005 to 2010 was extracted, and the number of HEV in 6 years, population and electronic map of China were collected, and the database of HEV disease with spatial attributes was established. Using GeoDa spatial statistical software, spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to study the spatial aggregation of hepatitis E, and on the basis of this, the cold hot spot region of the disease was determined by Spatio-temporal scanning statistical software (SaTScan). At the same time, the risk of hepatitis E was predicted, and the incidence of hepatitis E and geographical factors were analyzed by spatial regression analysis with the help of SPSS software. The causes of hepatitis E were discussed from the geographical point of view, which provided a theoretical basis and a new way of thinking for prevention and treatment of hepatitis E in China. The main conclusions are as follows: the global Moran's I index shows that the Moran's I index of the study period is greater than 0, and there is a positive spatial correlation between the data. That is, the pattern of high aggregation and low aggregation. Local Moran's life, Moran scatter plot and LISA accumulation diagram show that although the incidence of hepatitis E in some areas has changed somewhat in the past six years, the overall distribution of high value and high neighbors in the eastern part of our country is mostly high. Most of the inland areas in western China are low value and low neighbors. The results of spatial scanning statistics are consistent with the LISA accumulation map. From 2005 to 2010, the hot spots of hepatitis E were mainly located in the eastern coastal areas. However, the evolution from multiple hot spots to single hot spots, and the expansion of the hot spot region. That is, the incidence of hepatitis E develops from scattered point distribution to continuous block distribution, and the situation is more severe. The risk assessment method is used to study the trend of occurrence in hot spots. The results show that the risk value of high incidence disease in China is decreasing, and the value of low risk of hepatitis E is increasing. Combined with the global Moran index, the agglomeration of the risk of hepatitis E is decreasing. That is, the risk of high incidence of HEV in the whole country will be desalinated with the change of time, which means that the risk area of HEV will be enlarged. Based on the spatial lag model in the spatial regression model, the incidence of HEV and geographical factors are analyzed by regression analysis. The results showed that the incidence of hepatitis E was positively correlated with the consumption level of residents and the discharge of industrial sewage, and negatively correlated with the discharge of domestic sewage.
【学位授予单位】：浙江师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：R512.6

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