基于路径分析模型探讨气象因素对厦门市手足口病的影响

发布时间：2018-04-01 08:38

本文选题：气象因素　切入点：手足口病　出处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2017年08期

【摘要】：目的探讨气象因素对厦门市手足口病发病的影响。方法采用路径分析模型研究气象因素和肠道病毒活跃程度等因素对手足口病发病的直接作用和间接作用,采用最大似然法对模型参数进行估计和检验,通过绝对适配指标、相对适配指标和简效适配对模型进行评价和修正。结果气象因素对手足口病的发病影响滞后效应在5 d左右,手足口病受到平均相对湿度、大型蒸发量、平均气压、肠道病毒活跃程度和是否长假期的直接作用,受到平均气温、是否降水、大型蒸发量、平均水汽压、平均相对湿度、平均气压及最大风速风向的间接作用,与平均风速无统计学关联。结论气象因素与手足口病的发生关系密切,路径分析模型可以较好的验证两者之间的关系。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Xiamen.Methods path analysis model was used to study the direct and indirect effects of meteorological factors and enterovirus activity on the incidence of HFMD, and the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate and test the model parameters.The model is evaluated and modified by relative adaptation index and simple adaptation.Results the delayed effect of meteorological factors on HFMD was about 5 days. Hand-foot-mouth disease was affected by mean relative humidity, large evaporation, mean air pressure, enterovirus activity and whether or not long vacation.The indirect effects of precipitation, large evaporation, average vapor pressure, mean relative humidity, mean air pressure and maximum wind speed and wind direction have no statistical correlation with the average wind speed.Conclusion Meteorological factors are closely related to the occurrence of hand, foot and mouth disease, and the path analysis model can better verify the relationship between them.
【作者单位】：厦门市疾病预防控制中心急性传染病预防控制科;福建医科大学公共卫生学院预防医学系教学基地;
【基金】：厦门市科技计划指导项目(3502Z20139009)
【分类号】：R512.5

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