圆形分布法分析北海市流行性感冒的季节性和长期趋势

发布时间：2018-04-07 15:48

本文选题：流行性感冒　切入点：流行特征　出处：《现代预防医学》2015年08期

【摘要】：目的分析2009-2013年北海市流行性感冒发病的季节性和长期趋势,为预防该病的流行提供参考依据。方法收集2009-2013年全国传染病疫情信息网络直报系统和中国流感监测信息系统上报的北海市流行性感冒的疫情和监测资料,用圆形分布法分析其发病的高峰日和高峰期,并用相关分析方法分析其发病的长期趋势。结果 (1)北海市流行性感冒发病存在明显的季节性,其季节性分布特点为:全年均可发病,但每年的2、3、4月份和9、10、11、12月份为流行高峰期,而其他月份发病例数较少甚至为0。(2)2009-2013年北海市流行性感冒发病均存在明显的高峰日和高峰期(P0.05),各年发病高峰日不相同或不全相同(F=151.968,P0.05),总高峰日为11月7日,总流行高峰期为9月21日至次年1月23日。(3)2009年和2013年北海市流行性感冒发病水平较高,2010-2012年发病例数较少。结论北海市流行性感冒发病存在明显的季节性,每年的9月至次年4月为该病的流行高峰,尤其是每年3月和9月为高校学生入学的时间,应围绕此病的发病高峰采取有效的预防措施。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the seasonal and long-term trend of influenza incidence in Beihai City from 2009 to 2013, and to provide reference for the prevention of influenza epidemic.Methods the epidemic situation and surveillance data of influenza in Beihai City from 2009 to 2013 were collected by National Infectious Disease Information Network Direct reporting system and China Influenza Surveillance Information system. The peak and peak periods of epidemic were analyzed by circular distribution method.The long-term trend of the disease was analyzed by correlation analysis.Results (1) the epidemic rate of influenza in Beihai City had obvious seasonality, and its seasonal distribution characteristics were as follows: it could occur all year round, but the peak period of epidemic occurred in April and December.However, the incidence of influenza in Beihai City from 2009 to 2013 had obvious peak days and peak periods (P 0.05), and the peak days were different or not the same, and the total peak day was November 7, while the number of cases in other months was relatively small or even 0.20%, and the total peak day was November 7, the total peak day was November 7, the total peak day was November 7, and the peak days of each year were different or not the same.The total epidemic peak period was from September 21 to January 23) 2009 and 2013 in Beihai City, the level of influenza incidence was higher and the number of cases in 2010-2012 was lower than that in Beihai City.Conclusion the epidemic rate of influenza in Beihai City is obviously seasonal, and the epidemic peak is from September to April of each year, especially the time of entering college students in March and September of each year.Effective preventive measures should be taken around the peak incidence of the disease.
【作者单位】：北海市疾病预防控制中心微生物检验科;广西医科大学公共卫生学院;
【分类号】：R511.7

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