突发事件中不实信息传播的传染病模型研究

发布时间：2018-04-11 06:42

本文选题：突发事件 + 应急管理　；参考：《中国安全科学学报》2015年11期

【摘要】：为探究突发事件发生后不实信息的传播过程,分析其传播机理和控制方法。鉴于不实信息的传播、澄清、隔离和控制过程与传染病传播及其通过疫苗、治疗和隔离等控制过程相似,将经典的易感染者和已感染者(SI)传染病模型,优化转换成突发事件发生后不实信息传播控制的模型。综合运用控制论的相关知识,在现实操作中找出不实信息在不同人群间的接触转化率等影响传播的关键因素。结果表明,应急管理决策者可以根据实际情况,建立动态决策模型,并调整人群的接触转化率等相关参数,达到有效控制不实信息传播的目的。
[Abstract]:In order to explore the spreading process of unreal information after emergency, the propagation mechanism and control method are analyzed.In view of the spread of untrue information, it is clarified that the isolation and control process is similar to the transmission of infectious diseases and their control processes through vaccines, treatment and isolation.The optimization is transformed into a model for controlling the spread of unreal information after the occurrence of an emergency.Based on the relevant knowledge of cybernetics, the key factors affecting the transmission of false information, such as the contact conversion rate between different populations, are found out in the practical operation.The results show that emergency management decision makers can establish dynamic decision models according to the actual situation, and adjust the population contact conversion rate and other relevant parameters to effectively control the spread of false information.
【作者单位】：上海交通大学中美物流研究院;上海交通大学安泰经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助(71303157) 上海市自然科学基金资助(13ZR1458200) 上海市社科规划青年课题(2014EGL007)
【分类号】：R51

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