基于复杂网络理论的云南省手足口病疫情预测预警模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 13:26

本文选题：手足口病 + 预测　；参考：《中华疾病控制杂志》2015年03期

【摘要】：目的探讨基于复杂网络理论构建的手足口病疫情预测预警模型在云南省手足口病疫情防控中的应用。方法收集2010年5月~2011年5月云南省四个县(区)手足口病疫情相关信息,运用基于复杂网络理论的SIS模型和曲线拟合法,编写出手足口病疫情预测预警模型。试运行模型,对模型预测结果进行验证。结果模型试运行期间(2012年1~5月)昆明市官渡区、曲靖市麒麟区、玉溪市新平县和红河州泸西县手足口病发病数区间预测准确率分别为72.73%、81.82%、77.27%和63.64%。本研究中3岁患儿比率增高,高温高湿条件,EV71病毒构成比增加是促进手足口病疫情进展的主要影响因素。结论基于复杂网络理论的手足口病疫情预测预警模型预测监测辖区内手足口病疫情具有一定的准确性,对卫生部门判断手足口病疫情趋势、制定合理防控策略和措施具有一定的参考价值。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the application of the forewarning model of HFMD based on complex network theory in the prevention and control of HFMD in Yunnan province. Methods the information of HFMD epidemic situation in four counties (districts) of Yunnan Province from May 2010 to May 2011 was collected and the prediction and warning model of HFMD epidemic situation was compiled by using SIS model and curve fitting method based on complex network theory. The model is tested and the prediction results are verified. Results during the trial operation period (January to May, 2012), the prediction accuracy of HFMD in Guandu District, Qujing City, Xinping County, Yuxi City and Luxi County, Honghe Prefecture were 72.7310%, 81.82%, 77.27% and 63.64%, respectively. In this study, the proportion of children aged 3 years was increased and the proportion of EV71 virus was increased under high temperature and high humidity condition, which was the main influencing factor to promote the development of HFMD. Conclusion the prediction and early warning model of HFMD epidemic situation based on complex network theory has certain accuracy in forecasting and monitoring HFMD epidemic situation in the area of jurisdiction, and the trend of HFMD epidemic situation is judged by the health department. It has certain reference value to make reasonable prevention and control strategy and measure.
【作者单位】：云南省疾病预防控制中心性疫情管理/突发公共卫生事件处置中心;
【分类号】：R512.5

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