手足口病月发病率ARIMA乘积季节模型预测探讨

发布时间：2018-05-16 22:05

本文选题：手足口病 + 月发病率　；参考：《现代预防医学》2017年09期

【摘要】：目的探讨ARIMA乘积季节模型在HFMD月发病率预测中的应用价值,为手足口病防控工作提供依据。方法以2009年1月~2015年12月全国HFMD月发病率数据为基础,使用Eviews8.0建立ARIMA乘积季节模型,采用2016年1月~6月实际数据验证,以RMSE、MAE、Theil IC、BP、VP、CP、MRE评估模型预测结果。同法预测2016年7月~12月全国HFMD月发病率。结果 2009年1月~2016年6月HFMD月发病率最优模型是ARIMA(1,0,1)×(0,1,1)_(12),模型口径为:(1-B~(12))(1-0.574B)xt=(1-0.441B)(1+0.919B~(12))ε_t,RMSE=4.15,MAE=2.59,Theil IC为0.143,BP=0.045,VP=0.225,CP=0.730,2016年7月~12月发病率(1/10万)预测值分别为24.70、14.96、15.00、14.12、13.05、11.22。结论 ARIMA(1,0,1)×(0,1,1)_(12)模型可较好地拟合全国HFMD月发病率的演变趋势,可用于HFMD发病率的短期预测。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the application value of ARIMA product seasonal model in the prediction of monthly incidence of HFMD, and to provide the basis for the prevention and control of hand, foot and mouth disease. Methods based on the monthly incidence data of HFMD in China from January 2009 to December 2015, the seasonal model of ARIMA product was established by using Eviews8.0. The actual data from January to June 2016 were used to verify the results. The same method was used to predict the monthly incidence of HFMD in China from July to December 2016. Results from January 2009 to June 2016, the optimal model for the monthly incidence of HFMD was ARIMA (1 / 0 / 1) 脳 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 12 / 12 / 1 / 0. 574B / t / 1212 / 1 / 0. 574B / 1 / 0. 919B / 12C). The predicted value of the model was 24.70 ~ 14. 915.00 ~ 14. 013 / 1213. 051C / L ~ 11.222.The IC value of this model was 0. 143BP0. 045 BP0. 025 渭 m CPP 0.730, and the incidence of the disease from July to December 2016 was 11 / 10 000. The predicted values of the model were 24. 70 ~ 14. 615.00 ~ 14. 013. 05 ~ (5) C ~ (?) ~ (1)? (? Conclusion the model of Arima (1 / 1) 脳 1 / 10 / 1 / L / L / T / 12) can be used to predict the incidence of HFMD in China in the short term, and it can be used to predict the incidence of HFMD in the short term.
【作者单位】：河南中医药大学;郑州大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室;新乡医学院分子诊断与医学检验技术河南省协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.81172740)
【分类号】：R512.5

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