基于年龄结构的中国大陆手足口病流行特性的分析

发布时间：2018-05-28 15:01

  本文选题：手足口病 + 年龄组　； 参考：《中华疾病控制杂志》2015年07期

【摘要】：目的分析中国大陆手足口病动态模式的可能驱动因素,估计该病流行特性的重要参数。方法将宿主分成0~9岁(儿童组)和10~75岁(年长组)年龄组,建立分年龄结构的易感者-感染者-移出者(susceptible-infected-recovered,SIR)模型。根据我国2009-2011年手足口病发病数据,估算两个年龄组的人均接触率(β)和平均感染力(λ),及基本再生数(R0)。对模型进行计算机模拟,分析手足口病传播系统的动态特性以及学校开学对手足口病动态模式的影响。结果我国儿童组和年长组的手足口病年平均感染力分别为0.42,0.11;年人均接触率分别是1.28×10-6,3.31×10-7;基本再生数为8.86。在有外部驱动力(学校开学)的情况下,手足口病的发病数会有一年一次的季节性。结论我国0~9岁儿童手足口病的平均感染力高于目前文献报道的其他儿童传染病的平均感染力;≤9岁儿童间手足口病的接触率高于≥10岁人群间的接触率;每学年的开学能导致手足口病一年一次的季节性。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the possible driving factors of the dynamic pattern of HFMD in mainland China and to estimate the important parameters of epidemic characteristics of HFMD. Methods the host was divided into 9 years old (children group) and 10 to 75 years old (older group) to establish the model of susceptible person-infected person-emigrant person susceptible-infecting d-recovered SIRs. Based on the data of HFMD incidence in China from 2009 to 2011, the per capita contact rate (尾) and average infectivity (位 ~ (1) and the number of basic regeneration (R _ (0) of the two age groups were estimated. Computer simulation was carried out to analyze the dynamic characteristics of HFMD transmission system and the influence of school opening on HFMD dynamic model. Results the average annual infectious power of HFMD in Chinese children and the elderly group were 0.42 and 0.11 respectively, the annual per capita contact rates were 1.28 脳 10-6 and 3.31 脳 10-7, respectively, and the number of basic regeneration was 8.86. With external driving forces (school opening), HFMD occurs seasonally once a year. Conclusion the average infectious power of children aged 0 to 9 years old in China is higher than that of other infectious diseases reported in literature at present, the contact rate of children with HFMD 鈮，

本文编号：1947169