基于空间信息技术的鼠疫自然疫源地综合风险评估

发布时间：2018-06-03 05:54

本文选题：鼠疫 + 风险评估　；参考：《中国地方病防治杂志》2015年01期

【摘要】：目的为了更好的指导现场监测工作,科学合理选取流动监测区域,本研究综合考虑多种与鼠疫流行和爆发相关的风险因子对鼠疫自然疫源地进行综合风险评估。方法以青海省海南州兴海县为例,提出一个鼠疫自然疫源地风险评估框架,选取风险因素和暴露因素共7个指标建立了鼠疫自然疫源地风险评估模型;基于空间信息技术提取风险因子,1 km栅格作为基本评价单元划分出风险等级,对喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫自然疫源地进行综合风险评估。结果分级风险评估结果直观显示兴海县境内鼠疫自然疫源地风险的空间分布及其风险强度,较高风险连续区域分布在唐乃亥乡和子科滩镇,高风险地区主要集中在兴海县的东部。鼠疫宿主动物潜在分布概率、路网密度、历史疫情爆发是重要的风险因素。结论多种风险因子的评估结果更全面,风险区域更具有针对性。
[Abstract]:Objective in order to guide the field monitoring work and select the flow monitoring area scientifically and reasonably, this study comprehensively considered a variety of risk factors related to plague epidemic and outbreak to carry out comprehensive risk assessment of plague natural foci. Methods taking Xinghai County, Hainan Province, as an example, a risk assessment framework for plague natural foci was put forward, and a risk assessment model for plague natural foci was established by selecting seven risk factors and exposure factors. Based on spatial information technology, a 1 km grid of risk factors was extracted as a basic evaluation unit to classify the risk grade, and a comprehensive risk assessment was carried out on the natural plague foci of Marmota Himalayan. Results the classified risk assessment results showed the spatial distribution and risk intensity of plague natural foci in Xinghai County. The higher risk areas were distributed in TangNaihai Township and Ziketan Town. High-risk areas are mainly concentrated in the east of Xinghai County. The potential distribution probability, network density and historical outbreak of plague host animals are important risk factors. Conclusion the evaluation results of multiple risk factors are more comprehensive and the risk areas are more targeted.
【作者单位】：中国疾病预防控制中心卫生应急中心;青海省地方病预防控制所;青海省海南州疾控中心;
【基金】：公益性卫生行业科研专项(201202021)
【分类号】：R516.8

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