2004-2013年间中国登革热疫情时空变化分析

发布时间：2018-06-05 16:27

本文选题：中国 + 登革热　；参考：《地球信息科学学报》2015年05期

【摘要】：通过对登革热疫情分布及时空变化的分析,发现该病的分布和流行规律,将有助于登革热防控工作的开展。本文以2004-2013年间传染病网络直报系统的全国地市级登革热逐月发病率资料为基础,就发病率、涉及地市以及与输入性病例之间的关系,进行空间统计学分析。结果表明:中国登革热发病率的对数值与国外输入性病例数呈显著相关(r=0.669,p0.05);登革热输入性病例地市(有输入性病例的地市)数量与登革热本地病例地市(有登革热本地病例的地市)数量呈显著线性相关(r=0.939,p0.05);疫情整体呈稳步递增的趋势,且发病率重心不稳定,从东南沿海(广东、福建)逐步向内陆和西南地区(云南边界)迁移,显示登革热可能流行范围正在扩大;中国登革热疫情呈现波动性非随机空间分布,其高聚集区主要分布在广东的珠江三角洲、韩江三角洲,以及西南边境的云南德宏傣族景颇族自治州和西双版纳傣族自治州。中国登革热疫情是由输入性病例引起的本地流行,因此,加强入境人员(特别是来自东南亚疫区)的健康教育,尤其在输入性病例输入高风险时间段(7-10月),对控制登革热疫情有重要意义。
[Abstract]:By analyzing the distribution and temporal and spatial changes of dengue fever epidemic situation, it is found that the distribution and epidemic regularity of the disease will be helpful to the prevention and control of dengue fever. Based on the data of monthly incidence of dengue fever in cities and prefectures of China from 2004 to 2013, this paper makes a spatial statistical analysis on the incidence of dengue fever, which is related to prefectures and cities and the relationship between the incidence of dengue fever and imported cases. The results showed that the logarithmic value of dengue incidence in China was significantly correlated with the number of imported cases from abroad, and the number of imported cases (prefectures with imported cases) was significantly correlated with the number of local cases of dengue fever (with dengue fever). There was a significant linear correlation between the number of local cases (0. 939%, p 0. 05), and the overall epidemic situation showed a steady increasing trend. And the incidence center of gravity is unstable, moving gradually from the southeast coast (Guangdong, Fujian) to inland and southwest areas (Yunnan border), indicating that the epidemic range of dengue fever may be expanding, and the epidemic situation of dengue fever in China is fluctuating non-random spatial distribution. The high concentration areas are mainly distributed in the Pearl River Delta, the Han River Delta, the Dehong Dai Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture and the Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture. The dengue fever epidemic in China is a local epidemic caused by imported cases. Therefore, we should step up health education for immigrants, especially from the affected areas of Southeast Asia. Especially in the period of high risk of imported cases, it is important to control dengue fever.
【作者单位】：中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所媒介生物控制室传染病预防控制国家重点实验室;感染性疾病诊治协同创新中心;中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所媒介生物控制室传染病预防控制国家重点实验室;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;
【基金】：国家重大科学研究计划“973”项目(2012CB955501、2012CB955504)
【分类号】：R512.8;P208

【参考文献】