2012年和2014年东洞庭湖区人群血吸虫感染时空分布及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-07-13 20:21

【摘要】：目的分析东洞庭湖区2012、2014年人群血吸虫病空间分布变化及其影响因素,为制定有效的干预措施提供参考。方法在东洞庭湖区选取君山区作为研究现场,运用空间自相关分析君山区2012、2014年人群血吸虫病感染率空间分布特征的变化,使用空间回归模型探讨影响人群感染的危险因素。结果 2013年君山区家畜血吸虫感染率低于2011年;2014年君山区人群血吸虫平均感染率降为0.55%;2012年和2014年君山区人群血吸虫感染均存在空间自相关,局部空间自相关分析探测出4个高高聚集村;2012年空间误差模型显示,人群感染率与家畜感染率和易感环境面积呈正相关,而2014年空间滞后模型显示,易感环境面积呈正相关,家畜感染率无统计学意义。结论封洲禁牧和牛羊淘汰措施对防控血吸虫病效果显著,可根据君山区血吸虫病空间分布特征,在东洞庭湖湖区继续实施该措施和开展查螺灭螺工作。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and its influencing factors in East Dongting Lake region in 2012 and 2014, so as to provide reference for effective intervention measures. Methods the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis infection rate in Junshan area in East Dongting Lake region was analyzed by spatial autocorrelation analysis in 2012 and 2014, and the risk factors of infection were analyzed by spatial regression model. Results the schistosomiasis infection rate in Junshan area in 2013 was lower than that in 2011; the average schistosomiasis infection rate in Junshan area in 2014 was 0.55; there was a spatial autocorrelation between 2012 and 2014. The spatial error model of 2012 showed that the infection rate of population was positively correlated with the infection rate of livestock and the area of susceptible environment, while the spatial lag model of 2014 showed positive correlation with the area of susceptible environment. The infection rate of domestic animals was not statistically significant. Conclusion the measures of forbidding animal husbandry and eliminating cattle and sheep on the control of schistosomiasis are very effective. According to the spatial distribution characteristics of schistosomiasis in Junshan area, the measures can be continued to be carried out and the snail control work can be carried out in the Lake area of East Dongting Lake.
【作者单位】：复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室热带病学研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(81673236)
【分类号】：R181.3;R532.21

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