南通市流感样病例时间序列分析及发病趋势的预测研究
发布时间：2018-07-16 16:56
【摘要】：目的探讨时间序列分析中的自回归求积移动平均模型(ARIMA)在南通市流感样病例(ILI)发病趋势预测中的应用。方法收集"中国疾病预防控制系统"中2009年7月-2013年11月共238周流感样病例的发病监测数据,建立时间序列数据库,对每周流感样病例的发病人数进行ARIMA模型拟合,利用模型对2009年7月-2013年11月的周数据进行外部预测,并对2014年2月-2014年3月各周的流感样病例的发病情况进行前瞻性预测。结果构建流感样病例周发病数的ARIMA(1,1,1)模型为(1-0.806B2)(1-B)ln Xt=(1-0.958B2)∝t,其中B代表后移算子,Xt代表ILI周发病数,εt为随机误差。外部预测的预测值和实际值基本相符,相对误差较小。前瞻性预测结果符合流感样病例的流行特征。结论该模型能较好的模拟并预测南通市流感样病例的发病趋势。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the application of autoregressive quadrature moving average model (Arima) in predicting the trend of influenza like case (ILI) in Nantong city. Methods from July 2009 to November 2013, the surveillance data of 238 weeks of influenza like cases in China Disease Prevention and Control system were collected, and a time series database was established. The Arima model was used to fit the number of influenza-like cases per week. The model was used to predict the weekly data from July 2009 to November 2013, and the incidence of influenza-like cases from February 2014 to March 2014 was forecasted. Results the Arima model was (1-0.806B2) (1-B) ln Xt = (1-0.958B2) 鈭，
本文编号：2127026
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the application of autoregressive quadrature moving average model (Arima) in predicting the trend of influenza like case (ILI) in Nantong city. Methods from July 2009 to November 2013, the surveillance data of 238 weeks of influenza like cases in China Disease Prevention and Control system were collected, and a time series database was established. The Arima model was used to fit the number of influenza-like cases per week. The model was used to predict the weekly data from July 2009 to November 2013, and the incidence of influenza-like cases from February 2014 to March 2014 was forecasted. Results the Arima model was (1-0.806B2) (1-B) ln Xt = (1-0.958B2) 鈭，
本文编号：2127026
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