Spectrum模型在江西省艾滋病疫情估计与预测中的应用

发布时间：2018-10-14 16:33

【摘要】：目的应用Spectrum模型,对江西省艾滋病(AIDS)流行现状、发展趋势及防治效果进行估计,为艾滋病防治提供依据。方法依据江西省人口学数据、艾滋病流行病学资料、行为干预资料数据,利用Spectrum疫情模型,对江西省艾滋病疫情进行估计和预测。结果估计2010年全省现存活的艾滋病病毒(HIV)感染者/AIDS病人8736例,新发HIV感染1031例。现存活者中,属低风险异性恋者2471例(28.29%),高风险异性恋者2137例(24.46%),男男性行为者1938例(22.18%),注射吸毒者1849例(21.17%),中风险异性恋者341例(3.90%)。未来五年中,江西省艾滋病疫情呈上升趋势,其中男男性行为人群艾滋病疫情上升趋势较明显。同时,江西省未来五年实施优化干预措施,可减少新发感染768例。结论江西省属艾滋病低流行省份,未来应将控制同性性接触传播作为干预重点。
[Abstract]:Objective to estimate the current situation, development trend and control effect of AIDS (AIDS) in Jiangxi Province by using Spectrum model, so as to provide basis for AIDS prevention and treatment. Methods based on the demographic data, epidemiological data and behavioral intervention data of Jiangxi Province, the epidemic situation of AIDS in Jiangxi Province was estimated and predicted by using Spectrum epidemic model. Results it was estimated that there were 8736 (HIV) / AIDS patients and 1031 new HIV infections in 2010. Among the survivors, 2471 (28.29%) were heterosexual at low risk, 2137 (24.46%) were heterosexual at high risk, 1938 (22.18%) were men who had sex with men, 1849 (21.17%) were injecting drug users, and 341 (3.90%) were heterosexual at middle risk. In the next five years, the epidemic situation of HIV / AIDS in Jiangxi Province is on the rise, especially among men who have sex with men. At the same time, 768 cases of new infection can be reduced by implementing optimized intervention measures in Jiangxi Province in the next five years. Conclusion Jiangxi Province is a low-prevalence province of AIDS and should focus on controlling the spread of same-sex sexual contact in the future.
【作者单位】：江西省疾病预防控制中心;中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心;
【分类号】：R512.91

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