嘉峪关市气温对细菌性痢疾发病的滞后效应研究

发布时间：2018-10-16 12:32

【摘要】：探讨分析气温对细菌性痢疾发病的影响及其滞后效应。通过收集嘉峪关市2008—2013年每日细菌性痢疾发病资料,结合同一时间段的气象资料,利用分布滞后非线性模型分析气温与人群细菌性痢疾发病的关联性,分析不同气温和不同滞后天数对细菌性痢疾发病可能的影响。结果表明细菌性痢疾发病与气象因素关系密切,发病高峰一般出现在每年6—8月,对气象因素与细菌性痢疾病例数据做相关分析,表明嘉峪关市细菌性痢疾每日发病人数与气温、气压和降水量均存在相关性,嘉峪关市日平均气温对不同性别、不同年龄人群暴露效应曲线为J型和U型,气温对细菌性痢疾日发病存在明显的滞后效应,在暴露当天出现,女性2~3 d达到峰值,男性3~5 d达到峰值。气温对细菌性痢疾发病的效应中,女性所受的高温效应大于男性,高温效应随着年龄的增长而增大。气象因素在嘉峪关市细菌性痢疾的发生和发展中发挥重要作用,细菌性痢疾发病受到多种气象因子共同作用的影响,但首要影响因素是高温。气温对细菌性痢疾发病不是直接作用,而是通过影响细菌性痢疾发病的各个环节(居民生活习惯、传播途径与易感人群自身体质),间接影响细菌性痢疾在人群中的分布。
[Abstract]:To study the effect of air temperature on the incidence of bacillary dysentery and its lag effect. Through collecting the daily data of bacillary dysentery in Jiayuguan city from 2008 to 2013 and combining the meteorological data of the same time period, the relationship between air temperature and the incidence of bacillary dysentery was analyzed by using the distributed lag nonlinear model. The possible effects of different temperature and different lag days on the incidence of bacillary dysentery were analyzed. The results showed that the incidence of bacillary dysentery was closely related to meteorological factors, and the peak of incidence occurred in June and August of each year. The correlation between meteorological factors and cases of bacillary dysentery was analyzed. The results showed that the daily incidence of bacillary dysentery was correlated with air temperature, air pressure and precipitation in Jiayuguan city. There was a significant lag effect of temperature on the onset of bacillary dysentery. On the day of exposure, the peak value was reached for 2 days in women and 5 days in men. The effect of temperature on the incidence of bacillary dysentery was higher in women than in men, and increased with age. Meteorological factors play an important role in the occurrence and development of bacillary dysentery in Jiayuguan city. Air temperature has no direct effect on bacillary dysentery, but indirectly affects the distribution of bacillary dysentery in the population by influencing every link of bacillary dysentery (residents' living habit, transmission route and susceptible population's own constitution).
【作者单位】：兰州大学公共卫生学院;嘉峪关市疾病预防控制中心;上海市气象与健康重点实验室;成都信息工程大学大气科学学院;
【基金】：上海市气象与健康重点实验室开放基金项目(QXJK201505) 2015年度兰州大学“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”项目(lzujbky-2015-264)
【分类号】：R516.4

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