发热呼吸道症状监测在甲型H1N1流感暴发早期预警的效果

发布时间：2018-12-18 14:02

【摘要】：目的探讨发热呼吸道症状监测在甲型H1N1流感暴发早期预警效果。方法收集2007年1月-2009年12月本地区发热呼吸道症状监测数据进行分析,对2009年甲型H1N1流感暴发疫情数据进行拟合判断预警效果。结果 2009年甲型H1N1病例数在第35周后明显增加,在42周到达高峰,随即开始下降,其走势与ILI%(流感样病例占同期门急诊就诊总人数百分比)趋势相同;控制图法预警显示:ILI%在21~29周,35~43周和46周出现预警信息,基本与2009年甲型H1N1流行趋势一致;移动平均数回归法预警显示,2009年25~26周,29周,36~42周ILI%超过平均线,其中第42周超过了平均线+2.0标准差预警线,与2009年甲型H1N1第42周达到高峰的流行趋势吻合。结论发热呼吸道症状监测预警能较好的反映甲型H1N1流感暴发疫情,其中应用移动平均回归法预警效果较控制图法好。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the effect of fever respiratory symptom monitoring in early warning of influenza A H1N1 outbreak. Methods from January 2007 to December 2009, the surveillance data of fever and respiratory symptoms were collected and analyzed, and the data of influenza A (H1N1) outbreak in 2009 were fitted to judge the early warning effect. Results in 2009, the number of H1N1 cases increased significantly after 35 weeks, reached the peak at 42 weeks, and then began to decline. The trend was the same as that of ILI% (the percentage of influenza-like cases to the total number of outpatient and emergency visits) in the same period. Control chart method showed that early warning information appeared in 21 ~ 29 weeks, 35 ~ 43 weeks and 46 weeks in ILI%, which was basically consistent with the trend of A / A H1N1 epidemic in 2009; The moving average regression method showed that ILI% exceeded the average at 2526 weeks, 29 weeks and 36 weeks 42 weeks in 2009, and exceeded the 2.0 standard deviation warning line in the 42nd week of 2009, which coincided with the peak trend of H1N1 A in the 42nd week of 2009. Conclusion the early warning of fever and respiratory symptoms can better reflect the outbreak of influenza A H1N1, and the effect of moving average regression method is better than that of control chart method.
【作者单位】：慈溪市人民医院感染科;
【基金】：第四轮公共卫生三年行动计划重点学科建设基金资助项目(15GWZK0103)
【分类号】：R511.7

【参考文献】