应用地理信息系统分析2008-2013年亚洲禽流感的空间分布

发布时间：2019-01-24 12:37

【摘要】：目的运用地理信息系统(GIS)探索亚洲地区禽流感的空间分布特征。方法收集世界卫生组织(WHO)和世界动物卫生组织(OIE)禽流感疫情官方监测报告资料建立数据库,运用Arc GIS 10.0软件对亚洲地区禽流感暴发疫情进行空间分析和趋势面分析。结果 2008-2013年期间,亚洲地区禽流感暴发疫情在2008年和2011年最严重,其中人感染禽流感于2013年病例出现最多、最严重,且多为H7N9亚型流感;亚洲地区禽流感疫情主要分布在东南亚地区,孟加拉国、越南、尼泊尔、柬埔寨、缅甸、中国、韩国、日本等国家为禽流感多发区;人感染禽流感病例多发于中国东南沿海地区、印尼、越南、孟加拉国、柬埔寨等。全局空间自相关分析显示:2010年和2012年亚洲地区禽流感暴发存在空间自相关,其Moran's I值分别为0.074742、0.12458,P值分别为0.025339、0.004473,在整体上存在空间聚集性,2008、2009、2011、2013年亚洲禽流感在整体上为随机分布。趋势面分析显示2008-2013年亚洲地区禽流感疫情基本变化趋势都是由西向东疫情数目增加,亚洲南部禽流感疫情数目最多。结论亚洲地区禽流感疫情暴发存在明显的地域分布规律,有明显的高发区,空间分析结果有助于加强对亚洲地区禽流感疫情的预警和防控。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the spatial distribution of avian influenza in Asia using GIS (GIS). Methods the data of (WHO) and (OIE) avian influenza surveillance reports were collected to establish a database. The spatial analysis and trend surface analysis of avian influenza outbreaks in Asia were carried out by using Arc GIS 10.0 software. Results from 2008 to 2013, the outbreak of avian influenza in Asia was the most serious in 2008 and 2011, in which the cases of avian influenza in humans were the most serious in 2013, and most of them were H7N9 subtype influenza. Avian influenza epidemic in Asia is mainly distributed in Southeast Asia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Nepal, Cambodia, Myanmar, China, South Korea, Japan and other countries are bird flu prone areas; Human cases of avian influenza are common in southeast coastal areas of China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia and so on. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was a spatial autocorrelation between 2010 and 2012 of avian influenza outbreaks in Asia, and the Moran's I values were 0.074742 (0.12458U) and 0.025339 (0.004473), respectively, and there was spatial aggregation on the whole. In 2013, avian influenza in Asia was randomly distributed as a whole. Trend analysis shows that the basic trend of avian influenza epidemic in Asia from 2008 to 2013 is the increase of the number of bird flu outbreaks from west to east, while the number of bird flu outbreaks in southern Asia is the largest. Conclusion there are obvious regional distribution rules and high incidence areas of avian influenza outbreaks in Asia. The results of spatial analysis are helpful to strengthen the early warning and prevention and control of avian influenza outbreaks in Asia.
【作者单位】：江苏省沭阳县中医院;
【分类号】：R511.7

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