卢旺达旱涝和气温的气候变化及其与疟疾活动

发布时间：2020-12-23 13:18

　　全球气候正经历着一场以变暖为主要特征的显著变化,深刻影响着人类的生存与发展,构成当今国际社会共同面临的重大挑战,如气候变化将对人类可持续发展造成一系列的影响,由气候变化引发的极端气温和降水事件、高温干旱、海平面上升、台风等都会对社会经济发展、生态环境以及人类公共卫生健康造成威胁。虽然在全球尺度上的气候变化趋势和基本事实已经非常一致,但是在某些区域性（如中国）的气候变化趋势检测上,则还存在巨大差异和不确定性。本论文将以非洲中东部的卢旺达为例,利用长时间序列的常规地面气象站点观测资料、模式同化再分析资料以及紧10年疟疾病例变化,利用相关分析、合成分析和正态分布比例指数（PNI）方法,系统分析了卢旺达地区的极端异常降水事件的年际变化及成因;深入分析了极端气温、最低气温和最高气温及日较差的变化趋势和成因;最后,进一步分析了降水和气温的气候变化对卢旺达疟疾发生概率的影响规律特征。主要结果和结论如下:1)对1981-2010年期间的降水分析表明,在多雨洪涝年份（如1987,1988和1998等）,卢旺达地区的降水与厄尔尼诺引起的风场异常和水汽辐合密切有关,主要表现为来自大西洋的强西风异常和来自印度... 

【文章来源】：中国科学技术大学安徽省 211工程院校 985工程院校

【文章页数】：137 页

【学位级别】：博士

【文章目录】：
摘要
ABSTRACT
GLOSSARY OF TERMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
Chapter 1: Introduction
    1.1 Background of the study
    1.2 Previous studies
    1.3 Objective of the study:
        1.3.1 The specific objectives of the study
    1.4 Justification of the study
        1.4.1 Hazard profile in Rwanda, Population and Temperature
    1.5 Study area location
        1.5.1 Physical features and climate of Rwanda
        1.5.2 Rainfall
        1.5.3 Temperature
        1.5.4 Climate variability and climate change
    1.6 FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE RAINFALL IN A REGION
        1.6.1 The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone （ITCZ）
        1.6.2 Subtropical Anticyclones
        1.6.3 EI Nino southern Oscillation
        1.6.4 Tropical monsoons
        1.6.5 Indian Ocean Dipole
        1.6.6 Congo basin and High mountains region interaction
    1.7 Reason for choosing East Africa, particularly Rwanda
    1.8 Dissertation Overview and Scope
    1.9 The role of the government for Malaria Control and Eradication
    1.10 Motivation
Chapter 2: Data and Methodology
    2.1 Data used in the Study
    2.2 Methodology
        2.2.1 Percent of Normal Index
        2.2.2 Composite method
        2.2.3 Vertical motion
        2.2.4 Correlation, partial correlation, regression
        2.2.5 The Mann-Kendall test
Chapter 3: Dominant Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated withAbnormal Rainfall Events over Rwanda, East Africa
    3.1 Wet and dry events
    3.2 Circulation Anomaly patterns associated with wet and dry events
    3.3 Conclusions
Chapter 4 Warming perspective: Observed changes in Maximum and Minimum temperature over Rwanda during 1961-2014
    4.1 Background
    4.2 Results and discussions
    4.3 Long-term trend
    4.4 The Spatio variattions of Annual and Seasonal and decadal Tmax
    4.5 The Spatio variattions of Annual and Seasonal and decadal Tmin
    4.6 Extreme maximum and minimum temperatures
    4.7 Impact of Topography on Temperature variability
    4.8 Discussions
    4.9 Conclusion
Chapter 5 Meteorological variables conducive to Malaria Frequency:A statistical study in Rwanda
    5.1 Background
    5.2 Results and discussion
    5.3 Rainfall trend analysis
    5.4 Temperature Trend Analysis for the regions
    5.5 Humidity Analysis
    5.6 Malaria Cases Analysis
    5.7 Estimation of affected people based population and malaria incidence casesfrom 2010-2016
    5.8 Correlation analysis
    5.9 The Role of the Government
    5.10 Discussions
    5.11 Conclusion
Chapter 6 overall Conclusions
    6.1 Limitations and future study
    6.2 Recommendations
REFERENCES
Acknowledgements
List of Selected Publications
List of Ongoing Papers


【参考文献】：
期刊论文
[1]中国北方近50年干旱变化特征[J]. 王志伟,翟盘茂.  地理学报. 2003(S1)
[2]DIAGNOSIS OF SUMMERTIME FLOODS/DROUGHTS AND THEIR ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ANOMALIES OVER NORTH CHINA[J]. 谭桂容,孙照渤,陈海山.  Acta Meteorologica Sinica. 2003(03)



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