江西省生猪养殖温室气体排放时空特征及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 04:07

本文选题：江西省 + 生猪养殖　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,全球气候变暖给人类带来了严峻挑战,不但破坏了自然生态系统,而且严重威胁到了人类社会经济发展与生存环境,温室气体尤其是CO2排放量剧增是造成全球气候变暖的根源。世界观察研究所2009年公布的《畜牧与气候变化》报告指出,按照CO2排放当量计算,牧畜及副产品至少排放了325.64亿t CO2当量的温室气体,占世界总排放量的51%,远远超过世界粮农组织先前估计的18%,畜牧业已成为温室气体重要的排放来源。中国自2008年超越美国成为世界第一大碳排放国以来,政府高度关注碳排放问题,承诺到2020年CO2排放强度要比2005年降低40%~45%。政府“十八大报告”将生态文明建设纳入社会主义事业“五位一体”的总体布局,并提出从源头上扭转生态环境恶化及气候变暖等趋势,同时政府“十三五规划”将碳减排列为“十三五”重点工作。江西省作为我国十大生猪养殖主产省之一,每年因生猪养殖生产活动直接或间接产生的温室气体排放量,不容小觑。对致力于打造“生态明文建设示范区”和美丽中国“江西样板”的江西省而言,生猪养殖温室气体减排政策完善是建设文明、和谐、秀美江西的基本保证,是推动江西科学发展、绿色崛起的重点与关键,对于其他“生态文明示范区”建设具有重要的借鉴意义与参考价值。论文主要研究内容为:研究背景与问题的提出、研究内容与研究方法、理论基础与文献综述(第1、2章),江西省生猪养殖温室气体排放测算及其时空演变规律分析(第3章),江西省生猪养殖温室气体排放EKC特征及脱钩效应分析(第4章),江西省生猪养殖温室气体排放影响影响因素分解分析(第5章),结论、建议及研究展望(第6章)。主要研究结论如下:(1)运用生命周期评价方法(LCA)测算和分析江西省生猪养殖全生命周期温室气体排放时空演变规律的研究结果显示:1990—2014年江西省生猪养殖全生命周期及各个环节的CO2当量排放量均呈上升趋势,CO2当量排放总量呈现出“N”型增长特征,其中生猪饲料粮种植、粪便管理系统和生猪饲料粮运输加工环节CO2当量排放量上升显著;生猪饲料粮种植和粪便管理系统两大环节CO2当量排放量占总排放量的比例远高于其他4个环节,生猪饲料粮种植和粪便管理系统是生猪产业温室气体排放的主要来源。11个地级市生猪养殖温室气体排放聚集特征显著,吉安市、赣州市和宜春市CO2当量排放总量位列江西省前三位。(2)运用EKC模型和Tapio脱钩模型检验江西省及各市生猪养殖温室气体排放与经济发展之间的长期关系发现:江西省生猪养殖温室气体排放与经济发展之间存在“倒N型”的EKC关系,且存在临界值分别为2454元和10864元的双拐点。生猪养殖温室气体排放与经济发展之间均呈现弱脱钩的关系,生猪养殖业产值增速快于生猪养殖温室气体排放增速,江西省生猪养殖温室气体排放与经济发展较为协调。(3)采用LMDI模型对江西省生猪养殖温室气体排放影响因素进行分解分析的研究结果表明:经济发展因素是江西省生猪养殖温室气体排放增长的主要驱动因素,与2000年相比,2000—2014年间产生了189.96%的生猪养殖温室气体排放增量;效率因素、结构因素和劳动力因素则降低了江西省生猪养殖温室气体排放量,与2000年相比,2000—2014年间分别累计实现了79.35%、12.09%和25.16%的生猪养殖温室气体减排量,其中效率因素对江西省生猪养殖温室气体减排的贡献力度最大。(4)总结全文提出相关对策建议并进行研究展望。总结全文研究结论,得出生猪养殖温室气体排放时空演变规律及影响因素等结论。统筹兼顾生猪产业发展和节能减排、低碳养殖两大目标,提出提高完善养殖技术体系,合理实施种养结合,科学规划发展布局,健全经济激励机制,完善污染监管体制系,大力推进碳交易平台建设等对策建议,并对进一步的研究进行展望。
[Abstract]:In recent years, global warming has brought serious challenges to human beings, not only destroying the natural ecosystem, but also seriously threatening the social and economic development and living environment of human beings. The increase of greenhouse gases, especially CO2 emissions, is the root cause of global warming. The report of "animal husbandry and climate change" published by the world observation and Research Institute in 2009 According to the CO2 emissions equivalent, livestock and by-products discharge at least 32 billion 564 million T CO2 equivalent of greenhouse gases, accounting for 51% of the world's total emissions, far exceeding the 18% previously estimated by the world food and Agriculture Organization, and animal husbandry has become an important source of greenhouse gas emissions. China has surpassed the United States in 2008 as the world's largest carbon emission country. To come, the government pays great attention to the issue of carbon emissions, promises to reduce the CO2 emission intensity in 2020 than in 2005 to reduce the "Eighteen reports" of the 40%~45%. government to integrate the ecological civilization into the overall layout of the "five in one" of the socialist cause, and put forward the trend of reversing the deterioration of the ecological environment and the warming of the climate from the source, and the government "13th Five-Year regulations." Jiangxi province is the key work of "13th Five-Year". As one of the main production provinces of the ten largest pig breeding in China, the greenhouse gas emissions directly or indirectly produced by the pig breeding and production activities are not underestimated. Jiangxi province devoted to building the "demonstration area of ecological text construction" and "Jiangxi model" of beautiful China. The improvement of the greenhouse gas emission reduction policy of pig breeding is the basic guarantee for building a civilized, harmonious and beautiful Jiangxi. It is the key and key to promote the scientific development of Jiangxi and the green rise. It has important reference significance and reference value for the construction of other "ecological civilization demonstration areas". The main contents of this paper are the background and problems of the research. The research contents and research methods, theoretical basis and literature review (Chapter 1,2), the analysis of the greenhouse gas emission of Jiangxi pig breeding and its spatio-temporal evolution law (third chapter), the EKC characteristics and decoupling effect analysis (fourth chapter) of the greenhouse gas emission from pig breeding in Jiangxi Province, and the decomposition of the influence factors of greenhouse gas emissions from pig breeding in Jiangxi Province Analysis (fifth chapter), conclusions, suggestions and research prospects (sixth chapters). The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the results of the study of the spatial and temporal evolution of greenhouse gas emissions from the whole life cycle of Jiangxi pig breeding in Jiangxi province were calculated and analyzed by the life cycle assessment method (CO2): the whole life cycle of the pig breeding and the CO2 of each link in the 2014. The equivalent emissions all showed an upward trend, and the total amount of CO2 equivalent emission showed a "N" type of growth characteristics, in which pig feed grain planting, fecal management system and pig feed grain transportation and processing link CO2 equivalent emission increased significantly; the proportion of CO2 equivalent emission in the two major links of pig feed grain planting and fecal management system accounted for the proportion of total emissions. Higher than the other 4 links, pig feed grain planting and fecal management system is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions in the pig industry.11, the characteristics of greenhouse gas emissions from pig breeding in the city of Ji'an, Ganzhou and Yichun are ranked as the top three in Jiangxi province. (2) the use of EKC model and Tapio decoupling model test The long-term relationship between greenhouse gas emission and economic development of pig breeding in Jiangxi and all cities found that there was a "inverted N" EKC relationship between greenhouse gas emission and economic development in Jiangxi Province, and the critical value was 2454 yuan and 10864 yuan respectively. The relationship between the weak decoupling and the growth of the pig breeding industry is faster than the growth of greenhouse gas emissions from pig breeding. The greenhouse gas emissions from Jiangxi pig breeding and economic development are more coordinated. (3) the results of the decomposition and analysis of the factors affecting the greenhouse gas emissions from pig breeding in Jiangxi province by the LMDI model show that the economic development factor is Jiangxi The main driving factor for the growth of greenhouse gas emissions in the province of pig breeding was compared with 2000, which produced 189.96% of the increase of greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 to 2014, and the efficiency factors, structural factors and labor factors reduced the greenhouse gas emissions of the pig breeding in Jiangxi province. Compared with 2000, the accumulative total of the greenhouse gas was accumulated from 2000 to 2014. 79.35%, 12.09% and 25.16% of the pig breeding greenhouse gas emission reduction, of which efficiency factors have the greatest contribution to the greenhouse gas emission reduction in Jiangxi pig breeding. (4) summarize the full text of relevant countermeasures and suggestions and carry on the research prospect. In order to give consideration to the development of the pig industry, energy conservation and emission reduction and low carbon culture, two major objectives are to improve the cultivation technology system, the rational implementation of the combination of breeding and breeding, the scientific planning and development layout, the improvement of the economic incentive mechanism, the improvement of the system of pollution supervision and the construction of the carbon trading platform, and further research. Look ahead.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X713;F326.3

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