德国牛精液输华携带施马伦贝格病毒入境风险评估

发布时间：2018-06-15 10:37

本文选题：贝叶斯推断 + 施马伦贝格病毒　；参考：《动物医学进展》2017年06期

【摘要】：为明确德国输入中国牛精液产品携带施马伦贝格病毒(Schmallenberg virus,SBV)的风险状况,基于世界动物卫生组织(OIE)风险评估的框架,结合贝叶斯统计推断的方法,开展德国输入中国牛精液产品携带施马伦贝格病毒的输入风险评估。释放评估显示,德国畜群存在施马伦贝格病毒病的释放风险,SBV的发生率分布在1.227e-006到2.297e-006之间(95%Confidence interval,CI),牛精液供体动物SBV阳性率分布在7.8e-008到5.2e-007之间(95%Bayesian credible interval,BCI)。精液输华携带SBV入境评估模拟显示,出口中国的一批次精液中可能的假阴性概率分布在5.4191e-007到0.0006之间(95%BCI),其意义为输入10 000批次的精液,假阴性检出的批次在97.5%概率内分布在6个批次以内,大于6个批次的假阴性概率小于2.5%,检出一个批次假阴性的概率大于73.77%。暴露评估显示,基于德国存在SBV释放风险,该国精液输入会对我国养殖畜群产生暴露风险。损失模拟显示,SBV一旦输入,保守估计损失超过100亿元人民币的可能性大于95%,超过320亿元人民币的概率小于10.71%,84.27%的置信度内(BCI)损失会在100亿元~320亿元之间。
[Abstract]:In order to clarify the risk status of Schmallenberg virus carrying Schmallenberg virus SBV in imported Chinese bovine semen products from Germany, based on the framework of OIEs risk assessment of the World Organization for Animal Health, combined with Bayesian statistical inference method, Carry out an import risk assessment of German imported Chinese bovine semen products carrying Smarimberger virus. The release assessment showed that the risk of Schmalenberger's disease existed in German cattle. The incidence of SBV was between 1.227e-006 and 2.297e-006. The positive rate of bovine semen donor was between 7.8e-008 and 5.2e-007, and the positive rate of SBV was between 7.8e-008 and 5.2e-007. Simulation of the entry of semen into China for carrying SBVindicates that the probability of false negative in a batch of semen exported to China ranges from 5.4191e-007 to 0.0006 (95 I +), which means that 10 000 batches of semen are imported. The false negative detected batches were within 6 batches in 97.5% probability, the false negative probability of more than 6 batches was less than 2.5 and the probability of detecting one batch false-negative was more than 73.77. Exposure assessment showed that, based on the existence of SBV release risk in Germany, semen entry in Germany would pose a risk of exposure to livestock in China. The loss simulation shows that the probability of loss exceeding 10 billion RMB is greater than 95 RMB once input, and the probability of losing more than 32 billion RMB is less than 10.71RMB 84.27% confidence level) loss will be between 10 billion yuan and 32 billion yuan.
【作者单位】：中国动物卫生与流行病学中心;云南省普洱市动物疫病预防控制中心;
【基金】：牛羊“重要虫媒病”关键技术研究(201303035) 国家十三五重大科技专项(2016YFD0501104)
【分类号】：S852.65

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