我国DDGS市场供给与竞争品替代博弈——“供给侧改革”背景下饲料粮市场回顾与展望

发布时间：2018-08-31 08:12

【摘要】：在"供给侧改革"背景下,本文以极具潜质的优质饲料原料DDGS为主要研究对象,兼顾传统饲料粮玉米与豆粕,从国内市场供给与国外进口行情两方面入手,总结近期饲料粮市场发展现状,并对未来市场行情做出相关展望。研究发现:DDGS在近期进口数量波动较大、总体下滑;进口来源国仍集中在北美市场,但未来极有可能转向俄罗斯;"双反"裁定导致进口成本上涨;国产DDGS需求量不足。针对玉米相关研究发现:"临储政策"取消后,我国玉米进口数量下降,预期未来国产玉米价格将上升。关于豆粕研究发现:饲料粮市场对于豆粕需求稳步上升,其替代DDGS的效应明显。未来我国饲料粮市场发展需要兼顾国内国外两方面的行业形态、促进2个市场的良性发展,具体来说既要借助于国际市场,降低饲料用粮对于口粮供给形成的压力,保障口粮供给安全;又要刺激国内库存消费,加速粮食市场流通,保障粮食产能与农户生产积极性。
[Abstract]:Under the background of "supply-side reform", this paper takes DDGS as the main research object, takes the traditional feed grain corn and soybean meal as the main research object, starts from the domestic market supply and the foreign import market. Summarize the recent development of fodder grain market, and make a related outlook for the future market. The study found that the volume of imports fluctuated greatly in recent years, and the overall decline; the source countries of imports are still concentrated in the North American market, but they are likely to turn to Russia in the future; the "double reaction" ruling leads to higher import costs; and domestic DDGS demand is insufficient. It is found that the import quantity of maize in China will decrease after the cancellation of "temporary storage policy", and it is expected that the price of domestic corn will rise in the future. The research on soybean meal showed that the demand for soybean meal increased steadily and the effect of replacing DDGS was obvious. In the future, the development of the fodder grain market in China needs to take into account both domestic and foreign trade patterns and promote the benign development of the two markets. Specifically, it is necessary to help the international market to reduce the pressure of forage grain on the supply of rations. It is also necessary to stimulate domestic inventory consumption, speed up the circulation of grain markets, and ensure grain production capacity and farmers' enthusiasm for production.
【作者单位】：浙江大学中国农村发展研究院;
【基金】：资助项目:“十三五”农业现代化发展重大政策创设研究(500000-900205)
【分类号】：F224.32;F326.3

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