基于牧户行为的草地管理模式——以西藏自治区为例

发布时间：2018-11-15 19:31

【摘要】：本研究利用产量和利润最大化理论,基于随机抽样调查构建多元选择模型,探讨不同类型牧户放牧决策差异及导致牧户过度放牧的内在机制,分析牧民家庭收入、畜牧业科技推广、草地管理投入、牧户兼业行为和风险意识等变量对牧户放牧决策的影响,模拟不同政策组合下过度放牧牧户降低牲畜存栏量的意愿。研究表明,1)牧户生产决策受畜产品价格影响大,然而,不同质量畜产品价格差异小,导致牧民忽略畜产品品质而过度追求存栏量,引致草地禁牧政策失效;2)牦牛饲养比重对牧户减少牲畜存量的边际倾向值最大,比重每增加1单位,牧户意愿降低牲畜存栏量5.684单位,由于牦牛饲养草地需求较多,对是否降低存栏量敏感;3)大部分牧户倾向于选择经济效益,寻找兼顾生态与经济,能够有效提高牧户参与的区域生态经济发展战略是未来西藏牧区生态保护与经济发展策略的核心。
[Abstract]:Based on the theory of maximization of yield and profit, this study constructed a multi-selection model based on random sampling survey, discussed the difference of grazing decision among different types of herdsmen and the internal mechanism leading to overgrazing of herdsmen, and analyzed the income of herdsmen. The effects of factors such as scientific and technological extension of animal husbandry, grassland management input, concurrently business behavior and risk awareness of herdsmen on grazing decision-making were simulated. The willingness of overgrazing pastoralists to reduce livestock stock under different policy combinations was simulated. The results showed that: 1) the production decision of herdsmen was greatly influenced by the price of livestock products, however, the difference in the price of livestock products of different quality was small, which led to the herdsmen ignoring the quality of livestock products and pursuing the quantity of stock too much, which resulted in the failure of the policy of forbidding grazing in grassland; 2) the marginal tendency of yak feeding proportion to reduce livestock stock is the largest. If the proportion is increased by 1 unit, the livestock stock will be reduced by 5.684 units. Because of the more demand for yak raising grassland, it is sensitive to reduce the livestock stock. 3) most pastoral households tend to choose economic benefits, look for regional eco-economic development strategies which can effectively improve the participation of pastoral households and are the core of ecological protection and economic development strategy in Tibetan pastoral areas in the future.
【作者单位】：中山大学地理科学与规划学院广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室;钦州学院资源与环境学院;南京农业大学经济管理学院;南京农业大学中国粮食安全研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然基金面上项目——生态系统服务认知、农户行为选择与生物多样性保护:路径与反馈——以西藏高原为例(71573127) 国家社会科学基金重大特别委托项目——“西藏项目”:“十二五”期间西藏小城镇建设与发展研究(XZ2112) 国家环保公益性行业科研专项项目——西藏地区生态承载力与可持续发展模式研究(201209032)
【分类号】：S812.5

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