比利时输入中国牛精液携带的施马伦贝格病毒潜在入侵风险评估
发布时间：2018-11-23 11:47
【摘要】：为明确现阶段比利时输入中国牛精液携带施马伦贝格病毒的潜在入侵风险,基于世界动物卫生组织(Office International Des Epizooties,OIE)风险评估的框架,结合贝叶斯统计推断的方法,开展现阶段比利时拟输入中国牛精液产品携带施马伦贝格病毒(Schmallenberg virus,SBV)通过口岸贸易的输入量化风险评估。释放评估显示,比利时畜群存在SBV的释放风险。基于对比利时的SBV的监测监控体系、易感畜群监视、实验室诊断方法选择,结合检测方法和试剂有效性的参数化模拟,显示比利时牛精液供体动物SBV阳性预测值超过66.886 6%的概率不大于0.001 9。参照比利时2011年度出口到中国的精液批次标准,模拟现阶段比利时种用牛精液出口到中国市场每1批次中可能检出的假阴性概率在82.16%的置信区间内分布在0.001到0.006之间,即1 000批次精液的假阴性检出批次在82%的置信区间为1到6个批次,大于6个批次的假阴性概率小于13.63%,大于1个批次的概率大于95.80%。评估结论认为,从比利时输入有关的牛精液等产品将会对我国养殖畜群及其生态安全等产生较大的不确定性风险。
[Abstract]:In order to clarify the potential invasion risk of imported Chinese bovine semen from Belgium to carry Schmalenberg virus at this stage, based on the framework of (Office International Des Epizooties,OIE risk assessment of the World Organization for Animal Health, combined with the Bayesian statistical inference method, At the present stage Belgium intends to import Chinese cattle semen products to carry Schmalenberger virus (Schmallenberg virus,SBV) through port trade through the import of quantitative risk assessment. Release assessments show that Belgian herds are at risk of releasing SBV. Based on the monitoring and monitoring system of SBV in Belgium, the surveillance of susceptible herds, the selection of laboratory diagnostic methods, the parameterized simulation of the test method and the effectiveness of the reagent, The probability that the positive predictive value of SBV in Belgian bovine semen donor was more than 66.886 was not greater than 0.001 9. Referring to the standard of semen batches exported to China by Belgium in 2011, At the present stage, the probability of false negative that may be detected in every batch of Belgian cattle semen exported to the Chinese market is between 0.001 and 0.006 within the confidence interval of 82.16%. That is to say, the false negative detectable batches of 1000 batches of semen were 1 to 6 batches in 82% confidence interval, the false negative probability of more than 6 batches was less than 13.63, and the probability of more than one batch was more than 95.80. It is concluded that the import of cattle semen and other products from Belgium will pose a great uncertainty risk to the livestock breeding and its ecological security in China.
【作者单位】： 宁夏大学农学院;中国动物卫生与流行病学中心;珠海出入境检验检疫局;
【基金】：十三五国家重点研发计划(2016YFD0501104) 宁夏自然科学基金项目(NZ15050)
【分类号】：S852.65
本文编号：2351495
[Abstract]:In order to clarify the potential invasion risk of imported Chinese bovine semen from Belgium to carry Schmalenberg virus at this stage, based on the framework of (Office International Des Epizooties,OIE risk assessment of the World Organization for Animal Health, combined with the Bayesian statistical inference method, At the present stage Belgium intends to import Chinese cattle semen products to carry Schmalenberger virus (Schmallenberg virus,SBV) through port trade through the import of quantitative risk assessment. Release assessments show that Belgian herds are at risk of releasing SBV. Based on the monitoring and monitoring system of SBV in Belgium, the surveillance of susceptible herds, the selection of laboratory diagnostic methods, the parameterized simulation of the test method and the effectiveness of the reagent, The probability that the positive predictive value of SBV in Belgian bovine semen donor was more than 66.886 was not greater than 0.001 9. Referring to the standard of semen batches exported to China by Belgium in 2011, At the present stage, the probability of false negative that may be detected in every batch of Belgian cattle semen exported to the Chinese market is between 0.001 and 0.006 within the confidence interval of 82.16%. That is to say, the false negative detectable batches of 1000 batches of semen were 1 to 6 batches in 82% confidence interval, the false negative probability of more than 6 batches was less than 13.63, and the probability of more than one batch was more than 95.80. It is concluded that the import of cattle semen and other products from Belgium will pose a great uncertainty risk to the livestock breeding and its ecological security in China.
【作者单位】： 宁夏大学农学院;中国动物卫生与流行病学中心;珠海出入境检验检疫局;
【基金】：十三五国家重点研发计划(2016YFD0501104) 宁夏自然科学基金项目(NZ15050)
【分类号】：S852.65
【相似文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 李文良;毛立;江杰元;;一种新的反刍动物布尼亚病毒——施马伦贝格病毒[J];江苏农业科学;2012年11期
，本文编号：2351495
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/yixuelunwen/dongwuyixue/2351495.html
