近30年黑河流域草地变化分析及分布格局预测

发布时间：2019-02-20 20:01

【摘要】：草地是人类生存的基本资源和条件,在全球变化、全球循环和生态系统功能等方面起着非常关键的作用。本文基于GIS技术和1986、2000和2011年黑河流域草地分布数据,采用转移矩阵、草地动态变化度、空间动态度和CA-Markov模型等方法,分析了黑河流域近30年的草地变化,并对其未来分布格局做出预测。结果表明,(1)黑河流域1986年草地面积为32997.71km~2,高覆被草地、中覆被草地和低覆被草地面积分别为4290.02、6371.80和22335.89km~2;2000年草地面积为23939.46km~2,高覆被草地、中覆被草地和低覆被草地面积分别为5508.78、5540.01和12890.67km~2;2011年草地面积为24272.50km~2,高覆被草地、中覆被草地和低覆被草地面积分别为5561.31、5715.01和12996.18km~2,近30年间黑河流域草地面积呈现先减后增的趋势。(2)1986-2000年期间,黑河流域草地面积大幅减少,且退化严重,高覆被草地主要向中低覆被草地转换,中覆被草地主要向低覆被草地转换,低覆被草地主要向未利用地转换。(3)2000-2011年期间,黑河流域草地面积小幅增加,各类型草地转化面积较少,保持小幅缓慢上升趋势。(4)在现行趋势下,预测2022年黑河流域草地面积为24449.58km~2,高覆被草地、中覆被草地和低覆被草地面积分别为5560.28、5657.65和13231.65km~2,与2011年相比呈增加趋势,但下游地区草地面积和覆盖度依然较低。
[Abstract]:Grassland is the basic resource and condition for human survival, which plays a key role in global change, global circulation and ecosystem function. Based on the GIS technique and the grassland distribution data of Heihe River Basin in 1986 and 2011, this paper analyzes the grassland changes in the Heihe River Basin in the past 30 years by using the methods of transfer matrix, grassland dynamic degree, spatial dynamic degree and CA-Markov model. The future distribution pattern is predicted. The results showed that: (1) the grassland area of Heihe River Basin in 1986 was 32997.71 km ~ (-1), that of high, medium and low cover grassland was 4290.02 ~ 6371.80 and 22335.89 km ~ (2) respectively; In 2000, the grassland area was 23939.46 km2, and the area of high cover grassland, middle cover grassland and low cover grassland were 5540.01 and 12890.67kmm2, respectively. In 2011, the grassland area was 24272.50 km2, and the grassland area of high cover grassland, middle cover grassland and low cover grassland were 5561.31, 5715.01 and 12996.18 km2, respectively. In recent 30 years, the grassland area of Heihe River basin decreased first and then increased. (2) during 1986-2000, the grassland area of Heihe River Basin decreased first and then increased. The grassland area in Heihe River Basin was reduced significantly and degraded seriously. The high cover grassland was mainly converted to the low cover grassland, the middle cover grassland to the low cover grassland, the low cover grassland to the unused land. (3) during the period of 2000-2011, the grassland was mainly converted to the low cover grassland, while the low cover grassland was mainly converted to the unused land. The grassland area of Heihe River Basin increased slightly, and the conversion area of all types of grassland decreased, keeping a small and slow rising trend. (4) under the current trend, the grassland area of Heihe River Basin in 2022 was predicted to be 24449.58 km2, and the grassland with high cover was predicted. The area of middle cover grassland and low cover grassland were 5560.2857.65 and 13231.65km2, respectively, which showed an increasing trend compared with 2011, but the grassland area and coverage in the lower reaches were still low.
【作者单位】：兰州大学生命科学学院;兰州大学草地农业科技学院草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室;
【基金】：干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM201608)资助
【分类号】：S812

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