江苏省昆山市2006-2013年宫颈癌发病趋势分析

发布时间：2018-06-02 22:22

本文选题：宫颈癌 + 趋势　；参考：《中华肿瘤防治杂志》2015年21期

【摘要】：目的江苏省昆山市宫颈癌发病情况目前尚未开展研究。本研究分析昆山市宫颈癌发病率和时间趋势,为宫颈癌防治提供流行病学依据。方法收集昆山市2006-2013年肿瘤登记报告的宫颈癌病例资料,计算粗发病率,并使用中国2000年标准人口计算年龄标化发病率(age standardized rate,ASR);使用Join-point回归计算年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC),评价宫颈癌发病率等在年份之间的时间趋势。采用灰色模型(grey model,GM)预测未来年份宫颈癌发病率。结果昆山市宫颈癌粗发病率由2006年的6.34/10万上升到2013年的16.84/10万,APC=13.1%,95%CI为7.8%~18.4%。宫颈癌年龄标化发病率由2006年的4.99/10/万上升到2013年的12.30/10万,APC=12.5%,95%CI为6.9%~18.2%。累积发病率(0~74岁)由2006年的0.43%上升到2013年的1.10%,APC=11.8%,95%CI为6.7%~16.9%。25~45岁是宫颈癌的高发年龄。灰色模型预测结果显示,2014-2016年宫颈癌粗发病率分别为17.94/10万、18.40/10万和18.87/10万,呈现上升趋势。结论昆山市宫颈癌发病呈现持续上升趋势,需要加强相关防治措施,特别是25~45岁的妇女。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the incidence of cervical cancer in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province. This study analyzed the incidence and time trend of cervical cancer in Kunshan City to provide epidemiological basis for cervical cancer prevention and treatment. Methods the data of cervical cancer cases reported from 2006 to 2013 in Kunshan City were collected and the crude incidence was calculated. The standard population of China in 2000 was used to calculate the age-standardized incidence rate and the annual percentage rate was calculated by Join-point regression to evaluate the time trend of the incidence of cervical cancer in different years. Grey model (GM) was used to predict the incidence of cervical cancer in future years. Results the crude incidence of cervical cancer in Kunshan increased from 6.34 / 100 thousand in 2006 to 16.84 / 100 thousand in 2013. The age-standardized incidence of cervical cancer rose from 4.99 / 10 / 10,000 in 2006 to 12.30 / 100 / 100 in 2013, with 12.95% CI of 6.9% and 18.2%. The cumulative incidence rate increased from 0.43% in 2006 to 1.10% in 2013. The results of grey model forecast showed that the crude incidence of cervical cancer in 2014-2016 was 179,400 / 100,000,000 and 188.87 / 100,000respectively, showing an upward trend. Conclusion the incidence of cervical cancer in Kunshan City is on the rise, and it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and treatment measures, especially for women aged 25 to 45 years.
【作者单位】：昆山市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制科;
【分类号】：R737.33

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