极端气温对济南市心脑血管疾病死亡的影响

发布时间：2018-04-09 09:47

  本文选题：极端气温事件　切入点：寒潮　出处：《山东大学学报(医学版)》2017年11期

【摘要】：目的探讨极端气温对济南市心脑血管疾病死亡的影响,并为制定防治对策提供依据。方法收集济南市2011年至2014年居民心脑血管疾病逐日死亡资料和同时期的气象资料。极端气温定义:寒潮为每年10月至第二年3月至少连续3 d日平均温度低于济南市2011年至2014年日平均温度的第5百分位数;热浪为每年的5至8月至少连续3 d日平均温度高于济南市研究期间的日平均温度的第95百分位数。采用时间序列泊松回归模型,在控制长期趋势、滞后效应和气象因素的影响后,定量分析平均温度对心脑血管疾病日死亡人数及死亡风险的影响。结果济南市心脑血管疾病死亡分布具有明显的季节性。极端气温暴露(寒潮和热浪)期显著增加了济南市心脑血管疾病日均死亡人数(P0.01)。泊松回归结果显示,极端气温暴露显著增加了济南市心脑血管疾病的死亡风险,寒潮期与热浪期的死亡风险分别为1.06(95%CI:1.03~1.10)和1.03(95%CI:1.00~1.06),与非极端气温暴露期比较,差异均有统计学意义(P0.05)。全部人群不论性别与年龄均是寒潮敏感人群,仅高年龄组(≥65岁)是热浪敏感人群。结论极端气温显著增加济南市居民心脑血管疾病日死亡人数与死亡风险;应对极端气温制定公共卫生应急预警政策应覆盖全人群。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the effect of extreme temperature on death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Jinan and to provide basis for prevention and treatment.Methods the daily death data of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and meteorological data of the same period were collected from 2011 to 2014 in Jinan.Definition of extreme temperature: the cold wave is the 5th percentile of the mean daily temperature of at least 3 consecutive days from October to March of the following year, which is lower than the average daily temperature of Jinan from 2011 to 2014;The mean daily temperature of at least 3 consecutive days is higher than the 95th percentile of the daily average temperature during the period of study in Jinan city from May to August of each year.A time series Poisson regression model was used to quantitatively analyze the effects of mean temperature on the daily death toll and risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases after controlling the long-term trend, lag effect and meteorological factors.Results the death distribution of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Jinan city was obviously seasonal.Extreme temperature exposure (cold wave and heat wave) significantly increased the daily death toll of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Jinan.The whole population was sensitive to cold wave regardless of sex and age, but the high age group (鈮，

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