非线性传染率虫媒病毒的传播模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 09:03

本文选题：虫媒病毒　切入点：传播模型　出处：《沈阳农业大学学报》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：虫媒病毒是指通过吸血的节肢动物叮咬敏感的脊椎动物而传播疾病的病毒。寨卡病毒(Zika virus)是一种新发的虫媒病毒,伊蚊是其主要的传播媒介。为研究虫媒病毒的流行规律和发展趋势,建立了虫媒病毒传播模型。为更符合实际情况,模型中的传染率系数选用随时间变化的非线性函数,并利用差分方程模拟病毒的传播规律,采用非线性拟合、最小二乘法等数学方法求出最优参数值。结合新加坡卫生部(MOH)发布的2016年8月28日到9月26日的寨卡病毒累计病例数据为例,说明模型应用,并利用Matlab软件进行数值模拟,给出仿真图。对模型中的可控参数做敏感度分析,发现最大累计病例数对防控措施开始时间呈指数增长规律,得到指数方程为y=aebx,其中a=348.8[95%CI(340.1,357.6)],b=0.2286[95%CI(0.2266,0.2306)]。模型预测如果延迟1d采取防控措施,最大累计病例数会增加70多人,如果延迟14d采取防控措施,最大累计病例数会增加8000多人,说明及时有效的采取防控措施是至关重要的,并针对疫情后期阶段的防控措施给出分析建议。
[Abstract]:An insect-borne virus is a virus transmitted by blood-sucking arthropods biting sensitive vertebrates. Zika virus is a new type of insect-borne virus. Aedes mosquito is its main transmission vector. In order to study the epidemic law and development trend of arboviruses, a transmission model of arbovirus-borne virus is established. In order to accord with the actual situation, the coefficient of transmission rate in the model chooses the nonlinear function of changing with time. Using the differential equation to simulate the transmission law of the virus, the nonlinear fitting is used. The mathematical method, such as least square method, is used to calculate the optimal parameter value. Taking the cumulative case data of Zika virus from August 28th 2016 to September 26th released by the Ministry of Health of Singapore as an example, the application of the model is illustrated, and the numerical simulation is carried out by using Matlab software. By analyzing the sensitivity of the controllable parameters in the model, it is found that the maximum cumulative number of cases increases exponentially to the start time of control measures, and the exponential equation is yangaebx, where a ~ (348.8) [95CIN _ (340.01) ~ (357.6)] ~ (0.2286) [95CI0.22660.2306]]. The model predicts that if the prevention and control measures are delayed for 1d, the model predicts that if the prevention and control measures are delayed for 1 day, The maximum cumulative number of cases will increase by more than 70 people. If preventive and control measures are taken for 14 days, the maximum cumulative number of cases will increase by more than 8,000. This shows that timely and effective prevention and control measures are essential. Some suggestions for prevention and control measures in the late stage of epidemic situation are given.
【作者单位】：沈阳农业大学理学院;
【基金】：辽宁省自然基金面上项目(201602660) 辽宁省教育厅科学研究项目(LSNYB201609)
【分类号】：R184

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