2001-2013年中国重大食物中毒事件的分析评价

发布时间：2018-03-05 12:25

本文选题：重大食物中毒事件　切入点：时间序列季节分解法　出处：《上海海洋大学学报》2016年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为了深入了解我国重大食物中毒事件的发生特征,采用时间序列季节分解法、变异度值、t值检验等分析方法对我国2001-2013年重大食物中毒事件发生数量、死亡人数、中毒因素、中毒场所等通报数据进行分析评价。结果显示:我国重大食物中毒事件发生数量、死亡人数自2006年起均具有逐年下降的趋势,且呈明显的季节周期性,其中第三季度是中毒事件发生数量最多、造成危害程度最严重的季度。对比引起食物中毒的因素,化学因素是造成生命危害程度最大的因素,但深度分析可知,微生物因素应是未来食品安全防控的重点。中毒场所的比对分析中,家庭场所发生食物中毒的后果最为严重。本研究采用多元数学统计方法对食物中毒事件进行细致、全面的分析,充分揭示了当前我国食物中毒事件发生的总体状况以及未来潜在发展趋势。
[Abstract]:In order to understand the occurrence characteristics of major food poisoning events in China, time series seasonal decomposition method and variance value test were used to analyze the occurrence number, death toll and poisoning factors of major food poisoning events in China from 2001 to 2013. The results show that the number of major food poisoning incidents and the number of deaths have been decreasing year by year since 2006, and show obvious seasonal periodicity. The third quarter is the season in which the number of poisoning incidents is the highest and the degree of harm is the most serious. Compared with the factors causing food poisoning, chemical factors are the most dangerous factors, but the in-depth analysis shows that, Microbial factors should be the focus of food safety prevention and control in the future. In the comparison and analysis of food poisoning sites, the consequences of food poisoning in domestic places are the most serious. The comprehensive analysis reveals the general situation of food poisoning in China and the potential development trend in the future.
【作者单位】：上海海洋大学食品学院;农业部水产品贮藏保鲜质量安全风险评估实验室;上海水产品加工及贮藏工程技术研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(31271870) 上海市科委计划项目(14DZ1205100,14320502100) 上海市科技兴农重点攻关项目(沪农科攻字2014第3-5号,2015第4-8号) 上海水产品加工及贮藏工程技术研究中心(11DZ2280300)
【分类号】：R155.3

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