中国历史时期重大疫灾时空分布规律及其与气候变化关系

发布时间：2018-03-19 16:29

本文选题：重大疫灾　切入点：气候变化　出处：《自然灾害学报》2016年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：通过对历史时期重大疫灾资料的搜集、整理和分析,利用最小二乘法、小波分析、M-K检验等方法,对灾害发生频次、时空分布及其与气候变化的关系进行了研究。结果表明:我国历史上重大疫灾频发,在770BC-1911AD年间,共发生355次,平均每7.6a发生一次,且1580年以后显著增多。重大疫灾呈现波动上升趋势,阶段性特征明显,经历了频次较少—波动增加—频次平缓—快速增加四个阶段。第1个活跃期在东汉末年到魏晋时期,元朝以来,其发生的频次越来越高,明清小冰期时期形成第2个活跃期。重大疫灾演化过程中存在3a,12a和24a共3个明显的周期,主周期为24a。重大疫灾空间差异明显,以浙江、湖北、河南、江苏为高频中心的长江中下游和黄河中下游地区最多。
[Abstract]:Through collecting, sorting and analyzing the data of major epidemic disasters in historical period, using the methods of least square method, wavelet analysis and M-K test, the frequency of disasters is analyzed. The temporal and spatial distribution and its relationship with climate change were studied. The results show that in the history of China, there were 355 major epidemics, which occurred once every 7.6 years in the period of 770BC-1911AD. After 1580, the major epidemic disaster showed an upward trend of fluctuation, with obvious stage characteristics, and experienced four stages: less frequency, increasing frequency, increasing frequency and increasing rapidly. The first active period was from the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty to the Wei and Jin dynasties, the first active period was from the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty to the Wei and Jin dynasties. Since the Yuan Dynasty, the frequency of its occurrence has been higher and higher. The second active period was formed during the Little Ice Age in the Ming and Qing dynasties. There were three distinct periods (3a12a and 24a) and the main period was 24a in the evolution of the major epidemic disaster. The spatial difference of the major epidemic disaster was obvious, especially in Zhejiang Province. Hubei, Henan, Jiangsu are the high-frequency center of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River.
【作者单位】：陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41471071,41371029,41271108) 教育部博士点基金优先发展领域项目(20110202130002) 中央高校基本科研业务费创新团队项目(GK201301003)~~
【分类号】：R122;P467

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