陕西省妇女生育率变化影响因素研究

发布时间：2019-01-24 13:29

【摘要】：目的分析影响陕西省育龄妇女生育率变动的因素,为改善和制定现行计生政策提供依据。方法根据陕西省第六次人口普查资料,采用相关分析、多元回归分析等统计学方法,对文盲率、死亡率、人口密度、城镇化率、农民人均纯收入、城镇居民人均可支配收入等六个因素进行分析,观察其对生育率变动的影响。结果相关分析显示,总和生育率与文盲率和总死亡率呈显著的正相关关系,与城镇化率和农民人均纯收入呈显著的负相关关系;多元线性回归分析显示,城镇化率、农民收入和总死亡率均通过了对总和生育率的显著性检验;时间序列分析显示,城镇化率和农民收入呈现明显上升趋势,死亡率呈缓慢下降趋势。结论对生育率有显著影响的代表性因素有城镇化率、农民收入和死亡率;它们未来的发展趋势将引起总和生育率进一步减少。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the factors influencing the fertility rate of women of childbearing age in Shaanxi Province, and to provide basis for improving and making the current family planning policy. Methods according to the data of the sixth population Census of Shaanxi Province, the illiteracy rate, mortality rate, population density, urbanization rate and per capita net income of farmers were analyzed by correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis and other statistical methods. The influence of six factors, such as per capita disposable income of urban residents, on fertility is observed. Results correlation analysis showed that the total fertility rate was positively correlated with the illiteracy rate and the total mortality rate, and negatively correlated with the urbanization rate and the per capita net income of farmers. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that urbanization rate, farmers' income and total mortality rate all passed the significance test of total fertility rate. Time series analysis showed that the urbanization rate and farmers' income showed an obvious upward trend, while the mortality rate showed a slow downward trend. Conclusion the representative factors that have significant influence on fertility are urbanization rate, farmers' income and mortality rate, which will lead to further decrease of total fertility rate in the future.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学医院;西安交通大学经济与金融学院;第四军医大学基础部;西北政法大学;
【基金】：陕西省人民政府第六次人口普查办公室支助项目(021)
【分类号】：R169.1

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