如何客观评估“逮捕必要性”——基于3825件刑事案件的实证研究

发布时间：2019-02-12 12:06

【摘要】：在C市Y区人民法院自2006年1月至2010年5月作出裁判的3825件刑事案件中,适用取保候审的案件共有427件。分析此427件案件中与取保候审成败相关的信息,结果显示:学历、吸毒、涉嫌犯罪的类型、可能适用缓刑、可能判处的刑罚为三年以上有期徒刑、前科、取保候审持续的时间和取保候审的原因影响着取保候审的成败;性别、职业、前科的类型、到案方式和取保候审前曾被拘留对取保候审成败的影响没有统计学意义。通过对统计数据的进一步分析可知,具备下列因素之一的犯罪嫌疑人、被告人的逮捕必要性较小:高中及高中以上文化程度,有固定工作者或学生,涉嫌的犯罪为暴力犯罪、诈骗犯罪、盗窃犯罪和毒品犯罪以外的其他犯罪,可能适用缓刑,应当逮捕但患有严重疾病或正在怀孕、哺乳自己婴儿的妇女;具备下列因素之一的犯罪嫌疑人、被告人的逮捕必要性较大:吸毒,涉嫌的犯罪为毒品犯罪,不能适用缓刑,可能判处的刑罚为三年以上有期徒刑,有前科。
[Abstract]:Of the 3825 criminal cases decided by the people's Court of C City Y District from January 2006 to May 2010, there were 427 cases in which bail was applied pending trial. By analyzing information related to the success or failure of obtaining bail pending trial in 427 cases, the results show that: education, drug use, type of suspected crime, possible application of suspended sentence, possible sentence of more than three years of fixed-term imprisonment, previous convictions, The duration of the bail pending trial and the reasons for the bail waiting to be tried affect the success or failure of the bail pending trial; Gender, occupation, type of criminal record, the way to the case and the influence of detention before bail on the outcome of bail are not statistically significant. Through further analysis of the statistical data, we can see that the necessity of arrest of a suspect with one of the following factors is relatively small: high school and above education, fixed workers or students, and the suspected crime is a violent crime. Offences other than fraud, theft and drug offences may be suspended and women who suffer from serious illness or are pregnant and breast-feed their own babies should be arrested; With one of the following factors of criminal suspects, the defendant's arrest necessity is greater: drug abuse, suspected crime is a drug crime, can not be applied to probation, may be sentenced to three years or more of fixed-term imprisonment, have criminal record.
【作者单位】：西南政法大学诉讼法与司法改革研究中心;重庆市人民检察院公诉一处;
【基金】：西南政法大学2009年校级科研重点项目“‘逮捕必要性’量化机制研究”(项目编号:09XZ-ZD-25)的资助成果
【分类号】：D925.2;D926.14

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