劳动保护、行业下滑与企业贷款违约——基于2008《劳动合同法》的实证检验

发布时间：2018-07-06 19:25

  本文选题：劳动保护 + 贷款违约　； 参考：《中央财经大学学报》2017年09期

【摘要】：笔者主要研究劳动保护是否以及如何影响企业发生贷款违约的概率。以1999—2012年我国A股上市公司为样本,利用2008年《劳动合同法》的实施度量劳动保护强度的变化,检验发现,随着劳动保护的增强,劳动密集型企业在行业下滑时发生贷款违约的概率显著增加。分样本研究发现,高财务杠杆企业由于面临更加沉重的还款压力,劳动保护增强使其更容易出现债务违约。相对国有企业,民营企业缺乏信贷和展期上的优势,劳动保护增强对其债务违约的影响更为明显。小企业具有更高的财务风险和更不完善的劳动保障制度,其受劳动保护增强的负面影响也更加明显。进一步的平稳性检验显示,在新劳动法实施之前,不同特征企业的贷款违约趋势并未出现显著变化;在不同行业下滑的定义下,劳动保护增强对企业贷款违约的影响依然显著。总的来说,笔者基于贷款违约得到的证据支持关于劳动保护具有负面经济后果的论断。
[Abstract]:The author mainly studies whether and how labor protection affects the probability of loan default. Taking the A share listed companies of our country from 1999 to 2012 as a sample, using the implementation of Labor contract Law in 2008 to measure the change of labor protection intensity, it is found that, with the increase of labor protection, Labor-intensive enterprises in the industry decline in the probability of loan default increased significantly. A sample study found that highly leveraged firms are more likely to default on their debt because they face heavier repayment pressures and greater labor protection. Compared with the state-owned enterprises, the private enterprises lack the advantage of credit and extension, and the effect of labor protection on their debt default is more obvious. Small enterprises have higher financial risk and less perfect labor security system. Further stability tests show that before the implementation of the new labor law, the trend of loan default of enterprises with different characteristics has not changed significantly; under the definition of declining of different industries, the impact of labor protection on enterprise loan default is still significant. In general, the author supports the argument that labor protection has negative economic consequences based on the evidence of loan default.
【作者单位】： 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院;中央财经大学会计学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“劳动保护、人力资本专用性与公司价值:基于新《劳动合同法》的实证检验”(项目编号:71272233)
【分类号】：D922.52
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本文编号：2103854