珠三角制造业上市公司财务危机预警研究
发布时间：2018-11-03 19:18
【摘要】： 近年来,珠三角地区的制造业经历了高速发展之后,随着能源日益匮乏、新劳动法的实施等一系列宏观环境的改变,其比较优势正日趋消失。尤其是在人民币升值和金融危机来袭之后,外源经济特征显著的珠三角制造业面临前所未有的危机与挑战。在这样的背景之下,对珠三角制造业进行财务危机预警的相关研究既具理论意义又符合现实需要。 本论文以2005年至2007年之间珠三角地区被特别处理的15家制造业ST公司并配以15家相同细分行业的健康公司作为研究样本。从样本数据的信息显著性和重复性两个角度出发,对基础预警指标进行预处理,最终确定了9个指标作为模型的自变量序列。以Logistic回归模型作为建模方法,依次迭加引入传统财务指标、现金流量类指标和非财务类指标作为预警变量,在t-1、t-2、t-3年样本数据的基础上,构建了共计九个预警模型。比较分析研究结果后发现:总体上,预警模型的预警精度与预警期间呈负相关关系,而与模型中所包含的自变量类别的数目呈正相关关系。
[Abstract]:In recent years, after the rapid development of manufacturing industry in the Pearl River Delta region, with the increasing shortage of energy, the implementation of new labor law and a series of macro environment changes, its comparative advantage is disappearing day by day. Especially after the RMB appreciation and the financial crisis, the Pearl River Delta manufacturing industry with remarkable economic characteristics is facing unprecedented crisis and challenge. Against this background, the research on the financial crisis early warning of the Pearl River Delta manufacturing industry is of theoretical significance and meets the practical needs. In this paper, 15 manufacturing ST companies in the Pearl River Delta region and 15 health companies in the same subsector were selected as the research samples from 2005 to 2007. Based on the information significance and repeatability of the sample data, the preprocessing of the basic early warning index is carried out, and nine indexes are determined as the independent variable sequence of the model. With Logistic regression model as modeling method, traditional financial indexes, cash flow indicators and non-financial indicators are introduced as early warning variables, and based on t-1 / t ~ (-2) / t ~ (3) year sample data. A total of nine early warning models were constructed. It is found that the early warning accuracy of the early warning model is negatively correlated with the early warning period and is positively correlated with the number of independent variable categories contained in the model.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：F275
本文编号：2308734
[Abstract]:In recent years, after the rapid development of manufacturing industry in the Pearl River Delta region, with the increasing shortage of energy, the implementation of new labor law and a series of macro environment changes, its comparative advantage is disappearing day by day. Especially after the RMB appreciation and the financial crisis, the Pearl River Delta manufacturing industry with remarkable economic characteristics is facing unprecedented crisis and challenge. Against this background, the research on the financial crisis early warning of the Pearl River Delta manufacturing industry is of theoretical significance and meets the practical needs. In this paper, 15 manufacturing ST companies in the Pearl River Delta region and 15 health companies in the same subsector were selected as the research samples from 2005 to 2007. Based on the information significance and repeatability of the sample data, the preprocessing of the basic early warning index is carried out, and nine indexes are determined as the independent variable sequence of the model. With Logistic regression model as modeling method, traditional financial indexes, cash flow indicators and non-financial indicators are introduced as early warning variables, and based on t-1 / t ~ (-2) / t ~ (3) year sample data. A total of nine early warning models were constructed. It is found that the early warning accuracy of the early warning model is negatively correlated with the early warning period and is positively correlated with the number of independent variable categories contained in the model.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：F275
【引证文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 林松利;基于现金流量的广东制造业财务风险预警研究[D];广东工业大学;2012年
，本文编号：2308734
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/falvlunwen/laodongfa/2308734.html
